Archive for 2022

JOEL KOTKIN: The societal effects of the pandemic will remain with us.

Covid-19 was a major disrupter of virtually everything, but it also accelerated many things that were already in play. From the growth of the tech oligarchy to the dispersion of population to suburbs and to smaller cities, to a wide range of political impacts, it will continue to be felt here and around the world. . . .

The recent pandemic has been far less lethal, but it has reshaped our economy and society. It has to date largely favored big companies, which could deploy far greater resources and make the necessary transition to social distancing and on-line ordering, and the rich, who could cluster in their big homes and fly on private jets. Big Pharma companies have made lucrative profits with vaccine revenue that added an estimated $26 billion to their bottom lines by the end of 2021.

But the biggest initial winners were top digital companies —Amazon, Apple, Tencent, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Ant, Netflix, Hulu—all feasting on record profits in both 2020 and 2021. Leftist author Naomi Klein has dubbed this tech ascendancy “the Screen New Deal,” which seeks to create a “permanent and profitable no-touch future.” In contrast, the pandemic ravaged Main Street, eliminating over 100,000 more businesses than would occur normally, notes the Federal Reserve.

Millions of surviving businesses now increasingly have to rely for services and products via what analyst Mike Lind calls “toll booth” companies like Google and Amazon, which charge a fee for transactions once performed by small business owners. Even today, according to an Alignable.com survey, only 16 percent of small business owners – who have been particularly hard hit by inflation and labor shortages—feel the government has done much to help them. Martin Kulldorff, a professor at Harvard Medical School, summarized the impact: “Lockdowns have protected the laptop class of young low-risk journalists, scientists, teachers, politicians and lawyers, while throwing children, the working class and high-risk older people under the bus.”

Yep. Related: America’s elites are waging class war on workers and small biz.

Also: The rich and powerful thrived as the rest of us suffered in the year of lockdowns.

TRANSLATION OF A PURPORTED FSB ANALYSIS OF THE UKRAINE SITUATION: “Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.”

And: “You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon. And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon.”

Plus:

Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West). . . . To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.

First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single “red” button.

Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

All of this sounds plausible. Now here’s the bit that makes me doubt that this is real:

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.

This is not an official report but a memo to outsiders from a single anonymous FSB analyst. But to say this about Putin either means that the FSB has turned against him enough that there’s no fear of repercussions (in which case Putin is likely toast) or that this is a fake and the final paragraph is the real payload — which doesn’t mean the earlier analysis is wrong or not what the FSB thinks, only that encouraging FSB and other official discontent with Putin is the real purpose of this analysis.

Or none of it could be true. Some friends who know more than I do think it’s plausible and could very likely be genuine, but even they’re cautious.

THEY’RE EXPENSIVE, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THEY’RE NOT VERY GOOD: Watchdog: Unions drive Boston’s roster of $100K+ teacher salaries.

The high wages of teachers in Boston, where nearly 3,000 are paid six-figure salaries, reflects the strength of their union and suggests that a district plagued by “chronic underperformance” may be more geared toward the adults running it than the children it serves, watchdogs say.

A Herald analysis of payroll data found that 2,905 teachers earn more than $100,000 annually, compared to the average per capita income of $44,690 in Boston in 2019, the most recent year for which the U.S. Census Bureau has statistics.

Those teachers earned six figures in a city where 18.9% of the population – about 121,000 of 642,000 people – live below the poverty line, compared to the national average of 12.3%.

David Tuerck, president of the Beacon Hill Institute, which develops economic and statistical models for policy analysis, thinks Boston Public School teachers are overpaid “because of the strength of the teachers unions in Massachusetts.” . . .

“Teaching is a demanding, vitally important calling in our society, and educators should be well compensated,” said Jamie Gass, director of education policy and research at the Pioneer Institute, a Boston-based think tank.

“The problem is that when BPS teachers have excessively high salaries and gold-plated pensions, while the district is defined by chronic underperformance, it looks more like a massive employment system designed to benefit adults than an organization focused on educating schoolchildren,” he continued.

It looks like that because that’s what it is. None of this stuff is for the kids’ benefit. Abolishing the public schools and switching to vouchers is what you’d do if you cared about the kids.

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY: Russian Diplomat Says Iran ‘Got Much More Than It Expected’ In New Nuclear Deal About To Be Finalized.

Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov praised Iranian negotiators ahead of the public announcement of an updated deal that would presumably reduce international sanctions on their oil and gas in exchange for limiting their civilian nuclear program.

“Iranian colleagues are fighting for [their] national interest like lions,” he said. “They fight for every comma, every word, and as a rule, quite successfully.”

“I am absolutely sincere in this regard when I say that Iran got much more than it could expect,” he said. “Our Chinese friends were also very efficient and useful as co-negotiators.”

I’m sure.

The question is why Vladimir Putin risked a war when he could have gotten most everything he wanted from Joe Biden at the negotiating table.

#RESIST: Kherson protest against Russian occupiers brings hundreds to the streets.

Undaunted by the presence of Russian troops in their city, as many as 2,000 residents of Kherson, Ukraine, took to the streets Saturday in a show of defiance and national unity, according to reports.

“Russians go home!” and “Kherson is Ukraine!” were among the shouted slogans, the BBC reported.

Kherson, located in southern Ukraine along the Black Sea, fell to the Russians last week, with the city’s mayor estimating as many as 300 people were killed, with many of the bodies rendered unrecognizable because of the power of the invaders’ weapons.

The mayor, Igor Kolykhaev, said he sent volunteers around the city to collect bodies after the onslaught, The New York Times reported.

On Saturday, videos posted online showed Russian troops firing shots into the air in hopes of turning back the marchers.

In eight years, Russia has failed to pacify the two majority-Russian “independent” republics in Ukraine’s Donbas.

What the hell does Putin think he’s going to do with the entire country?

Assuming he can take it, that is.

VIDEO: The Failed Logistics Of The Russian Invasion.

If you don’t have the time to commit to a 20-minute video, Lawrence Person has highlighted the takeaways at the Battleswarm Blog link above.

SALENA ZITO ON UKRAINE AND AMERICA: “I have not seen people here in America come together over one thing — no matter what their faith, race or politics are — since Sept. 11, in the way they have with the people of Ukraine.”

OH JOY, A MORE POLITICALLY ACTIVE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA … THAT’S JUST WHAT AMERICA NEEDS: At the University of California, there is a movement afoot to allow academic departments on campus to issue or endorse statements on political issues in the name of the department. Currently, this would be a violation of university policy. Individual faculty members can freely comment on whatever they want, but the university itself and its various offices and departments are supposed to be politically neutral.

Some faculty members are (rightly) pushing back. And they are seeking UC faculty members to join in their letter of protest. Definitely check it out if you’re a UC faculty member (but take a look even in the far more likely event that you’re not). It’s nice to know that not everybody at the UC is relishes the idea of academic departments joining the Twitter mobs.

ATTITUDES:

Looks like pretty much an inverse of the income groups most likely to fight in such a war.

GOOD: Zelenskiy and Musk say more Starlink terminals to come. “[MUSK] warned on Twitter that Starlink satellites could be targeted and advised users in Ukraine to turn on Starlink only when needed, and place antennas as far away from people as possible.”

KAROL MARKOWICZ: Why we must demand that leaders who got COVID wrong admit it and apologize. “The pandemic could be waning, maybe, and the impulse might be to forgive, without any apologies, and forget. We can’t do that. A new variant can easily emerge and the people who have been wrong for two years will go right back to forcing their failed prescriptions on us all. . . . That’s why we need the admission of failure of all of these policies, and who was responsible, before we can move on. Americans must insist on it for our collective future.”

SCHOOL DISCIPLINE FARCE: A Georgia school superintendent recently stated that his “goal is to have zero [racial] disproportionality” in school discipline. But as long as students from different racial groups misbehave at different rates, we’re going to have (or at least we should have) disproportionalities in school discipline.

There is reason to believe that the Biden Administration will explicitly re-institute the Obama Administration’s deeply wrongheaded school discipline policy soon.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF: Public Schools Really Don’t Want Parents To Do Any Parenting. “COVID has really exposed those in charge of our public schools as the awful people that they’ve always been. We here on the conservative side of the political aisle have been saying for decades that public schools would prefer that parents have as little input as possible in their children’s lives. If Democrats had their way, kids would be whisked off to pre-pre-K immediately up exiting the womb.”

WELL, HE’S RIGHT ABOUT THIS PART, AT LEAST: “Biden is the one who funded Russia’s invasion. Biden killed our pipelines, killed coal and banned drilling, which made us dependent on Russian oil — which made Russia filthy rich and arrogant. Biden paid for this war.”

I don’t think that gets Putin off the hook, though.

Related:

NOT GOOD FOR CRYPTO: Turns out, according to Chuck Ross of the Washington Free Beacon, that the biggest financial supporter of San Francisco’s radical prosecutor, Chesa Boudin, is crypto billionaire Christian Larsen.

Ross also points to a strange angle in this curious relationship: “Larsen and Boudin have found common cause in a controversial initiative to install surveillance cameras across San Francisco. Larsen has funded more than 1,000 surveillance cameras that he hopes will curtail crime in the city. Privacy advocates have criticized Boudin for supporting the initiative. The Electronic Frontier Foundation, a privacy advocacy organization, has said the program would ‘chill free speech and political participation.'”

CYBERWAR: Russia’s second-largest internet provider cuts off Russian websites.

For better or worse, Russia’s internet just got kneecapped.

Cogent Communications is cutting off internet service to its Russian clients, the Washington Post reported on Friday. This puts it in league with companies like Meta, which has blocked Russian state-affiliated news agencies on Facebook in Europe; Twitter, which slaps a warning label on tweets from state-run Russian media outlets; and others.

Cogent is an internet infrastructure provider that serves international clients, including many companies in Russia. In fact, it is the country’s second largest internet service provider, according to Reuters.

In addition to the traditional war it has waged on the ground since invading Ukraine, Russia has staged cyberwar offensives against the neighboring nation’s military and banking websites. It is also using its state-affiliated media outlets and bot propaganda networks to put out a version of the country’s invasion of Ukraine that is favorable to Russia.

However: Social media turn on Putin, the past master.

In Russia on Friday, Vladimir Putin, a man who is now scared of his own shadow, took the extraordinary step of attempting to outlaw information. He banned Facebook. He shut down Twitter. He passed a new law that declares journalism a criminal offence: any journalist found to have published “fake news” on the war in Ukraine now faces up to 15 years in prison.

It is, like so many things in the last week, incredible, unprecedented, horrifying – but more importantly it’s also desperate and absurd. Because in 2022 you can’t ban information. It’s like trying to ban oxygen. It’s the kind of move that one of his grey-faced Soviet predecessors might have made. It’s as modern and up-to-date as a typewriter. Only a fool would make predictions right now, but here’s one anyway: it proves that Putin, the founding father of what’s come to be known as “information war”, just lost the information war.

Trying to wage war using tools and technology you don’t control is even more of a fool’s errand than war usually is.

Something we might want to keep in mind as Xi Jinping gets friskier.