A VERY BIG QUESTION WITH IMMEDIATE AND LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES: Can a NATO ‘Article 5-Like’ Promise Protect Ukraine From Putin?
Back in the not-so-long ago Cold War thermonuclear brink days:
The NATO Treaty’s Article 5 stated the political consequences of waging war in Europe. The glib call it The Three Musketeers Clause — one for all and all for one. The musketeers are fiction. Article 5 made a serious commitment in a very real nuclear-armed world.
NATO members agreed “that an armed attack against one or more of them … shall be considered an attack against them all.” Each member would then take “action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain” NATO security. The enemy had to attack a member’s territory or member “forces, vessels or aircraft” operating “in or over” NATO territory.
Actions backed the words. U.S., Britain and France stationed soldiers in West Germany, on the Soviet Union’s axis of attack. In the mid-1970s, I served in a U.S. Army armored unit deployed in the primary invasion route from East Germany to the Rhine River. We called ourselves human trip wires.
The Kremlin understood an attack on West Germany (or Norway, etc.) triggered a theater-wide war with the whole of NATO –from Turkey to Norway to the North Pole– and a global war with NATO strategic powers (U.S. primarily but also France and Great Britain).
August 2025. Ukraine is a hot war involving nuclear-armed Russia led by megalomaniac Putin. Trump seeks to end the war with his own blend of coercive diplomacy, hard talk, soft talk, big sticks, a few calculated carrots:
The U.S., Ukraine and the key European nations indicate that if a peace deal emerges, Ukraine will receive what is called “Article 5-like” security guarantees.
What is that? Is it Article 5-Lite? The better question is what constitutes a violation of Ukraine’s Article 5-like guarantee?
To really give peace a chance — and convince Putin Russian violations will be swiftly and harshly penalized — that question requires detailed answers backed by evident military preparations.
Article 5-Like is a calculated carrot. Perhaps by the end of October we will know what it means in real world terms –maybe.