Author Archive: Stephen Green

ANXIETY AS A LUXURY GOOD:

From the linked article: “The NLM estimates that fuel use per passenger on private flights varies, ‘but [is] estimated to be on the order of 10 to 20 times higher than the average fuel use per passenger hour for a commercial flight.'”

THIS STORY HAS GOTTEN LOST IN THE SHUFFLE BUT IT COULD PROVE A BIGGIE: A tiny town just got slammed by Helene. It could massively disrupt the tech industry.

Nestled in the Appalachian mountains, the community of Spruce Pine, population 2,194, is known for its hiking and local artists. It’s also America’s sole source of high-purity quartz. Helene dumped more than 2 feet of rain on the town, destroying roads, shops and cutting power and water.

But its reach will likely be felt far beyond the small community.

Semiconductors are the brains of every computer-chip-enabled device. Solar panels are a key part of the global push to combat climate change. To make both semiconductors and solar panels, companies need crucibles and other equipment that can withstand extraordinarily high heat and be kept absolutely clean.

One material fits the bill: quartz. Pure quartz.

Quartz that comes, overwhelmingly, from Spruce Pine.

“As far as we know, there’s only a few places in the world that have ultra-high-quality quartz,” according to Ed Conway, author of Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization. Russia and Brazil also supply high-quality quartz, he says, but “Spruce Pine has far and away the [largest amount] and highest quality.”

Developing…

HE CAN’T HEAR YOU OVER THE SOUND OF ALL THAT DELICIOUS PIZZA:

Keeping Walz cocooned away from even the friendly press somehow failed to prepare him for much of anything — who knew?

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY (MOSCOW EDITION): Russia to raise defence budget by 25% to highest level on record.

The latest planned increase in spending will take Russia’s defence budget to a record 13.5tn rubles (£109bn) in 2025, according to draft budget documents published on Monday on the parliament’s website. That is about 3tn rubles more than was set aside for defence this year, which was the previous record.

Taken together, spending on defence and security will account for about 40% of Russia’s total government spending – or 41.5tn rubles in 2025.

The 2025 budget suggests Putin has embraced what economists have dubbed “military Keynesianism”, marked by a significant rise in military spending, which has fuelled the war in Ukraine, spurred a consumer spending boom and driven up inflation.

Related: Russia’s Central Bank Raises Rates to 19% as Inflation Ticks Up. “Given that so much of the spending is being directed by the state, which is less responsive to higher borrowing costs, analysts fear interest rate rises may not be an effective tool against inflation.”

ASKING THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS: Now Comes Israel’s Vengeance — But Will They Go Full Old Testament? “While all options are on the table, Israeli officials indicated that their first targets would be Iran’s oil facilities, air defense systems, and targeted assassinations. Iran’s nuclear program will reportedly remain safe unless Iran attacks again.”

HOMETOWN HERO:

Israelis never had anything like America’s gun culture before Oct. 7 but that’s changing.

CDR SALAMANDER HAS A THEORY:

What can help explain the apparent federal level indifference to the nightmare brought from Florida’s Big Bend up to Appalachia from hurricane Helene?

I have a theory, and it has to do with Idaho that I think
@ComfortablySmug
would appreciate.

Let me take you back to season 5, episode 1 of Veep.

I looked for a video of the scene, but can’t find it.

So, I’ll quote the script:

“- KENT: Also, ma’am, catastrophically mudslides in Idaho. The governor is requesting a federal state of emergency.
….
– MEYER: How much did we lose Idaho by?

– KENT: Shellacked. Uh, well over 212,000 votes.

– MEYER: Then I declare a state of go f^ck yourself. I’m not spending money to scrape mud off a bunch of dirt roads.”

Ahem.

What are the polling averages for the states most damaged by Helene?

-FL: Trump +5.0 (NYT average)
-GA: Trump +1.0 (NYT average)
-NC: Trump +0.1 (NYT average)

Trump is so far ahead in SC and TN that no one is bothering to take polls.

You would think GA & NC would cause concern, but perhaps their internal polls tell the Harris campaign they’re already lost.

IDK… but the snark from the left to those trying to recover from Helene, and knowing who is on the Harris campaign team… the Veep explanation is as good as any other I have heard of.

Or the Harris-Walz camp thinks they have it so in the bag that they can openly sneer at those mouth-breathing flyover-country MAGA types who just got what they deserved.

But I much prefer Sal’s theory.

SPOILER: HARRIS ISN’T LEADING ANYTHING. THIS IS JUST ANOTHER STAGED PHOTO OP:

THE GANG THAT COULDN’T SHOOT STRAIGHT:

I SUSPECT THIS IS TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE: Gogo buys rival to tackle Starlink aviation expansion.

Gogo is acquiring inflight connectivity rival Satcom Direct to counter rising competition from SpaceX’s Starlink in the market for providing Wi-Fi to business jets.

Satcom Direct would get $375 million in cash and five million shares from Gogo under a deal announced Sept. 30, subject to regulatory approvals, and up to $225 million in extra payments tied to performance targets over the next four years, suggesting around $636 million in maximum total proceeds.

Gogo has historically dominated the small and midsize part of the business aviation market and connects about 7,000 planes, according to William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma, while Satcom Direct has a commanding market share for long-haul.

Combined, William Blair estimates the companies are providing Wi-Fi to around 8,200 of the 9,200 business jets that currently have connectivity — or nearly 90% of the market.

In-flight Starlink is faster and has lower latency — and is so cheap to install and operate that airlines like United will offer it for free. It seems likely Gogo will get replaced by carriers in the classic two ways, gradually then suddenly.

LOOKS LIKE A LONG, HARD SLOG:

Read the whole thing.

INDEED: The U.S. Navy Shouldn’t Gloat over China’s Submarine Setback.

The U.S. Navy and the larger maritime sector have suffered a one hammer blow after another to their reputation for competence over the past several years. Another fell just last week, around the same time the Type 041 debacle came to light. To wit, the Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet oiler USNS Big Horn, the main supply ship for the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier task force, ran aground in the Arabian Sea. Big Horn suffered flooding in its engineering spaces as well as rudder damage and had to be towed to port in Oman for repairs. Laying it up deprives the carrier group of fuel and precious supplies without which no fleet can operate at sea for long.

Reportedly no replacement vessel with adequate cargo capacity is available. With Big Horn sidelined, it remains to be seen how Abraham Lincoln and its escorts will offset the loss of logistical support. If vessels comprising the task force have to put into port to replenish fuel and stores, that will thin out the naval presence in the Red Sea—creating a more permissive setting for Houthi attacks on shipping in that vital waterway. This on top of recent news that navy leaders are considering idling seventeen ships out of an already perilously lean logistics fleet because too few civilian mariners are available to crew them.

Peacetime strategic competition is virtual war.

The Navy is our first line of defense and has been for almost 250 years.

THERE’S NO MORE DENYING THAT THIS IS WAR:

More:

If that’s true, whatever leverage the Biden Cartel still held over Israel is likely gone. It certainly ought to be.

MORE DETAILS: Israel Under Major Attack From Iranian Missiles.

GLEICHSCHALTUNG: Uh-Oh. Now, Even Barbells Are Problematic. “A CrossFit coach shared that a female who attended his class freaked out after he mentioned that the gym had both men’s and women’s barbells and suggested the latter might be a better fit for her. The woman got angry, accused him of discrimination, and went to the gym owner to complain about said discrimination.”