Author Archive: Stephen Green

PROMISES, PROMISES: NATO members agree to increase defense spending to 5%.

NATO members agreed on Sunday to increase defense spending to 5% of their countries’ GDP, a benchmark long sought by President Donald Trump, who had complained more vocally than other US presidents that his country had shouldered much of Europe’s security for too long.

Spain had sought to block the measure, but ultimately dropped its opposition after a deal was reached for it to be exempt.

It is expected that NATO members will vote in favor of ramping up defense spending to 5% during the upcoming two-day NATO meeting set to start Tuesday in The Hague.

Once adopted, all member nations except Spain will have until 2035 to reach the goal of 5%.

The agreement calls for at least 3.5% of national GDP to be spent on core military needs, while an additional 1.5% can be allocated for related expenditures.

Ten years to reach a modest goal that Britain, France, Germany, and Italy aren’t serious about, and that Spain got out of just by complaining?

MASS TRANSIT: Copper thieves target Seattle-area light rail, shutting down train line. “The incident comes as the agency is also managing emergency repairs on the 1 Line in Seattle. Five downtown stations were closed over the weekend to address broken rail segments, forcing passengers to rely on buses and streetcars.”

WELL, TUCKER:

One report claimed Iran tried to launch 80 missiles today, got off 20, and that the remainder were destroyed on the ground.

JONATHAN TURLEY: ‘Where’s Jackie?”: Why the Public Needs Answers on Biden’s Alleged Incapacity.

When then-President Joe Biden asked in September 2022 if House Rep. Jackie Walorski, an Indiana Republican who had died weeks earlier in a car accident, was in a meeting, observers were shocked. Biden had not only issued a statement of condolence; he had attended the congresswoman’s memorial service to lower the flags at the White House in her honor.

As Washington Post media critic Erik Wemple noted last week, that moment should have been a wake-up call. In Washington parlance, it left no room for “plausible deniability” about whether Biden was still fit to hold the office of president. And it wasn’t just Democratic politicians who were willfully blind to Biden’s obvious deterioration; it was the media, too.

That’s why the country should fully support President Donald Trump’s June 4 order for his administration to investigate Biden’s competence and answer some of these questions, including the possible abuse of an autopen to sign legislation, pardons and other documents while he was president, instead of looking for political motivations.

Similarly, the Republican-led House Oversight Committee is also investigating.

The New York Times called it part of Trump’s “campaign of retribution against his perceived enemies” and “the latest effort by President Trump to stoke conspiracy theories about his predecessor.”

There is a weird dissonance when journalists blame Biden’s White House for a coverup, but then criticize efforts to investigate that coverup.

There’s no dissonance when you remember that journalists like Jake Tapper aren’t actually blaming the Biden White House for a coverup.

They’re merely trying to cover their asses for their role in it.

THE NEW SPACE RACE: Increase in Ariane 6 launch cadence could take several years.

During a panel at the Paris Air Show June 17, David Cavaillolès, chief executive of Arianespace, emphasized his desire to ramp up launches of the Ariane 6, which has performed two launches to date.

“We need to go to 10 launches per year for Ariane 6 as soon as possible,” he said. “It’s twice as more as for Ariane 5, so it’s a big industrial change.”

After the inaugural launch of Ariane 6 last July, Arianespace launched the second Ariane 6 in March, placing a French reconnaissance satellite into orbit. Cavaillolès reiterated earlier plans to conduct four more Ariane 6 launches through the end of the year, including the first launch of the more powerful Ariane 64 variant with four solid-rocket boosters.

However, he declined to offer a specific timeline for increasing launch cadence to 10 per year. “Everybody is extremely motivated, but we want to do it step by step,” he said. “First we have to deliver on ’25 and this is a big challenge, so we focus on that.”

First maybe they need to find customers willing to pay about three times more than SpaceX charges per kilogram to orbit.

BREAKING: Iran Strikes Back. “Iran has launched a series of ballistic missiles, currently seven total, at American military bases in Qatar and Iraq as part of Operation Basharat al-Fath. Siren are also sounding in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Explosions in the air have been reported by witnesses on the ground.”

UPDATE: The attack seems to have been a whole lot of not much — half a dozen or so missiles, all intercepted.

But then there’s this:

It’s complicated, as they say.

VICTORIA TAFT: I Guess We Know Who Learned a Lesson From That Signalgate ‘Scandal’ … and It Wasn’t the Democrats. “Jeffrey Goldberg wasn’t on the Signal chat this time; hell, there wasn’t even a Signal chat between Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and top defense officials that we know of leading up to the Iran nuclear strike on Saturday night. The operational security surrounding the meticulously planned and flawlessly orchestrated strikes on Iran was on such close hold that they were over and our bombers out of Iranian airspace before the mullahs knew about it.”

HMM:

More: “Qatar did not take the decision to close its airspace lightly; over a dozen inbound aircraft have been forced to divert, and dozens more are currently grounded at Doha’s Hamad International Airport.”

Developing…

Update: “Airspace over the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar has been officially closed, per a newly issued NOTAM.”

JENNIFER GRIFFIN: “In 18 Years, I’ve Never Seen Such Operational Security.”

The other thing I can point out is that this is an operation—in the last 18 years since I’ve been at the Pentagon—I’ve never seen such operational security. There was nobody speaking about this, any of the preparations. There was a complete lockdown—almost a blackout—of information for the last few days.

I’m sitting here in the Pentagon right now. I can tell you the hallways are empty. All of the information is coming right now out of the White House. That is a significant achievement because there were no leaks about the timing.

Trump 47 runs a much tighter ship.

GOOD LORD:

YES. NEXT QUESTION? Is the U.S. Vulnerable to a Drone Sneak Attack?

Israel’s recent attack on Iran further demonstrates the unstoppable power of drones swarming from bases already within the target country. Evidence has emerged that Israel pre-positioned drones within the interior of Iran. Details are sparse, but we can hypothesize that the Israeli attack exploited a technique similar to the one recently used by the Ukrainians: hauling truck boxes disguised as commercial shipping deep into the interior of the target country near the most sensitive targets. When the agents are safely out of harm’s way, a remote signal activates the automated drones to deliver small explosive payloads with devastating precision.

The Russian nuclear-capable bombers presented a soft target to the Ukrainians; the Iranian military leadership was an even softer target for Israel. Technology exists to create killer drones with facial recognition software and AI navigation that can stealthily hunt down specific targets. When they locate the target, a charge large enough to take out that target alone explodes within point-blank range.

Unlike the advancements in ironclads, nuclear weapons, or aircraft carriers, a massive industrial effort is not required to build drones. China, Iran, Russia, and many other countries are automating drone production on a massive scale, as if the survival of their regimes depends on it. And it seems likely that warfare is changing so that regime longevity does depend on a credible drone offense and defense capability.

Ukraine and Israel were both able to sneak drones into countries that aren’t exactly open and friendly places — so of course we’re vulnerable, too.

GOOD GUY WITH A GUN: 1 injured, suspected shooter killed after shooting at church in Wayne, sources say.

A police source tells us that the armed suspect was on his way to the church when another person tried to stop him with their truck. He reportedly opened fire at the truck, and that’s when a security guard got involved. Wayne Police confirmed on Facebook that the suspect was shot and killed by a security guard at the church.

Wayne police said one victim was shot in the leg.

“Our leadership and support teams are on the ground, at the scene, in Wayne, Michigan providing assistance and investigative support,” said FBI Director Dan Bongino in a statement released Sunday afternoon.

We’re told that Vacation Bible Study kids were performing, and the performance was interrupted to clear the church.

“The VBS kids were up on stage giving the little songs that they learned, and I had to use the restroom and I was on my cell phone,” said Wendy Bodin, who was in the church at the time of the events. “I went out to the front of the building where the grass is, and I saw a man on the ground. I heard a big Boom and I thought he got hit or crashed his car or was hurt, and another lady saw and pointed to me and said ‘oh my, call 911!'”

We’re told that Homeland Security is also monitoring the incident.

Stay alert.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: It’s Refreshing Having a Real President Again. “President Trump did what he had to do to help the world become a safer place. There isn’t a lot of nuance in this situation. The Iranian regime is pure evil. They cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.”

HMM:

Full text:

Report: Khamenei is currently unreachable. Top Iranian officials including former President Hassan Rouhani, MP Ali Larijani, and former Justice Minister Sadeq Larijani are seeking his approval to begin direct talks with the United States but have failed to make contact.

A source told IranWire that only a small group has access to Khamenei. Ali Larijani, from a prominent clerical family, wants to position himself as a future leader after Khamenei, but his authority is weak since Khamenei disqualified him twice from running for president.

Nobody knows what’s going on, and that seems to include Khamenei.