Author Archive: Ed Driscoll

TWENTY MINUTES INTO THE FUTURE? Niall Ferguson: Brace Yourselves. A Recession Is Coming.

Investors should be used to the whiplash by now. The pattern ought to be familiar: The president makes a bold pro-Israel military move in the Middle East. Israel’s principal adversary retaliates by restricting the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf. The economic consequences look so grim—the nightmare combination of stagnation and inflation—that the president hastily switches to diplomacy.

I want nothing to do with the juvenile journalistic debate about whether, by postponing on Monday his threatened attacks on Iranian power plants, Trump “chickened out” the way he rolled back the tariffs in April last year—the way he always chickens out. Please. He doesn’t always chicken out. He carries out roughly half of the threats he makes, which is a pretty effective strategy in game theory, so long as your adversaries are risk averse, which most of them are. Trump most certainly is not. (When the guy who used to run George Soros’s hedge fund says that Trump has “a very high risk tolerance, much higher than mine,” that’s telling you something.)

The reason the pattern of the past four weeks should be familiar is that something very similar happened in 1973–74. The catalyst was Richard Nixon’s decision to airlift a colossal military aid package to Israel—the counterpart to Operation Epic Fury in 2026. Nixon wanted to tilt the balance of power in the Middle East decisively in Israel’s favor following the Arab states’ surprise attack on Yom Kippur, October 6. The retaliation took the form of oil price hikes by the Middle Eastern oil producers, culminating in an embargo on oil exports to the United States imposed on the orders of King Faisal of Saudi Arabia on October 17. The ultimate effect was to nearly quadruple the price of oil on the world market.

Nixon, Kissinger, and other senior officials in the administration had been warned that this might happen. As Martin Indyk showed in his excellent 2021 book, Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle East Diplomacy, they had ignored those warnings. Kissinger was dismayed at the situation he now found himself in. As he complained to his staff on October 26, in the 19th century, the Western powers would simply have invaded Saudi Arabia and carved up its oil fields. “The idea that a Bedouin kingdom could hold up Western Europe and the United States would have been absolutely inconceivable,” he fumed. Defense Secretary Jim Schlesinger even drew up a plan to occupy the Arabian oil fields “as a last resort.”

Stunned by the economic consequences and their likely political costs, Nixon instructed Kissinger to get the embargo lifted. The secretary of state made his first trip to Riyadh on November 8. For all Kissinger’s skill as a negotiator, and for all the shuttle diplomacy he undertook, it took more than four months to get the embargo lifted, on March 18, 1974. By that time, the energy supply shock had been enough to push the U.S. economy—and much of the rest of the industrial world—into recession. Is something similar happening right now as a result of Trump’s war?

Related: “Goldman Sachs just bumped its U.S. recession probability to 30% from 25%, underscoring how quickly things are moving.”

CHANGE: Volkswagen to shift from cars to missile defense in deal with Israel’s Iron Dome maker.

Volkswagen is in discussions with Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defence Systems regarding a deal that would convert one of the German automaker’s factories from car manufacturing to missile defence production, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

The plan involves transforming Volkswagen’s Osnabrück plant to produce components for Rafael’s Iron Dome air defence system, according to the report. The Israeli state-owned company’s system would be manufactured at the German facility under the proposed arrangement.

The deal aims to preserve all 2,300 jobs at the Osnabrück site in western Germany, which has faced potential closure. The two companies plan to market the defence systems to European governments.

The German government is actively supporting the proposal, according to the Financial Times report.

As Noah Pollack, channeling Norm Macdonald:

Related: Volkswagen Could Start Building Military Vehicles. The beginning of the lede is a riot:

Volkswagen is no stranger to the military sector, and the automaker is now exploring the possibility of producing military vehicles at its Osnabrück factory in Germany.

Just don’t mention the war

MUCH MORE LIKE THIS, PLEASE:

 

QUESTION ASKED: Why Are Climate Doomsayers Never Fact-Checked?

The “climate emergency” pushers have pompously predicted planetary doom within ten years for more than 30 years. Why are they never checked? Author Kevin Mooney has a new book titled Climate Porn, and we discuss the remarkable imbalance of climate coverage and the nasty tendency on the Left to punish people who even gently question the panic.

MRC Business Associate Editor Joseph Vazquez joined the conversation. The subtitle of the book is How and Why Anti-Population Zealots Fabricate Science, while Targeting American Capitalism, Freedom, and Independence. In the year we celebrate America’s 250th anniversary, Mooney — who was a colleague of ours with CNSNews.com back when George W. Bush was president — argues that the climate doomsayers threaten a climate crisis to undermine our prosperity and liberty.

One of the most embarrassing alarmists of our times, the biologist Paul Ehrlich — who became famous with his book The Population Bomb in 1968, has just passed away at the age of 95. The New York Times was mocked on X when they suggested “his predictions proved premature.” He predicted mass famines in the 1970s. In 1989 and in 1990, NBC gave over chunks of the Today show to Ehrlich. He was not interviewed. He was the reporter-slash-narrator. We never stop talking about his prediction that soon, you’d tie your boat to the Washington Monument. That never happened.

Bryant Gumbel putting the “That’s good stuff” button at the end just adds to the unintended comedy of this bonkers 1990 clip:

Still though, why take chances? Tax the blue zones.

More wacky aquatic urban predictions here: Mile Markers on the Road to Detroit Atlantis.

THANKS, BARRY!

Exit quote:

JIM TREACHER: Die, Trek, Die.

If you make a show that people want to watch, they’ll watch. If you don’t, they won’t. They’ll even watch fat alien broads if the story is good. You’d think Paramount would’ve gotten that by now.

The producers and actors probably won’t learn a damn thing, though. These days, the trend is for the custodians of these failed franchises to blame the audience.

“You didn’t like the all-female Ghostbusters reboot, fill of pointless dancing and cringeworthy ad-libs? You just hate women!”

“You didn’t see the point of Rose Tico or Vice-Admiral Holdo or any of the other forgettable characters in The Last Jedi? You just hate Asians! And women!”

“You didn’t even bother with The Marvels or Madame Web or Ballerina? Well, guess what?”

The word “woke” has become so overused that I don’t know what it’s supposed to mean anymore, but I do know that diversity, inclusion, and equity are very poor substitutes for good storytelling. You can’t guilt-trip a mass audience into showing up for your shoddy product by calling them bigots.

The original Star Trek, which aired on NBC from 1966 to 1969, lived on throughout the 1970s and ‘80s in reruns, until the movies and the Next Generation showed up, because it was about big ideas. Its writing was so timeless, the show transcended its plywood sets and primary color uniforms. In contrast, as John Nolte writes, Starfleet Academy feels stillborn, “stale the day it was released, like something from 2020 when there were still enough people high on their woke supply to make garbage like this a temporary hit.”

2026: AN ILLEGAL ALIEN ODYSSEY.

A BRIDGE TOO FAR:

But in California, the reasoning works differently. We are told this is about coexistence, balance, and harmony between humans and nature. It’s a lovely idea, as long as you’re not the one being harmonized.

Governor Gavin Newsom has overseen a state where residents are leaving, businesses are relocating, and costs continue to rise steadily into the stratosphere. Housing? Out of reach. Taxes? Sky-high. Regulations? Plentiful enough to require their own migration corridor.

And yet, when faced with these challenges, Sacramento looked at its checkbook and said: You know what we need? A better commute for mountain lions.

Related: Does Newsom know that his young comms team are comparing him to Patrick Bateman, the wealthy serial killer lead character of American PsychoIf the blood-spattered clear plastic mac fits, I guess:

CHICAGO DEM SLAMMED FOR SUGGESTING LOYOLA STUDENT CAUSED HER OWN MURDER: ‘Wrong place at the wrong time.’

A progressive Chicago Dem is taking a ton of heat for suggesting that a Loyola University Chicago student who was allegedly executed by an illegal migrant caused her own murder — and that she was “in the wrong place at the wrong time.”

Chicago Alderwoman Maria Hadden was speaking after Sheridan Gorman, an 18-year-old from Yorktown, New York, was shot dead on Thursday morning while she walked with friends along the city’s lakefront near campus.

Hadden said the deadly shooting appeared to be a case of Gorman being “in the wrong place at the wrong time, running into a person who had a gun,” in an interview with Fox 32 Chicago.

As Iowahawk tweets:

“In the wrong place at the wrong time” as an excuse for institutional failure is a recurring theme in leftist American political circles:

OMNIPOTENT TOURIST SYNDROME:

(Classical reference in headline.)

TO BE FAIR, TLAIB SUPPORTING TERRORISM ISN’T EXACTLY BREAKING NEWS:

HOW WELL DID ICE PERFORM REPLACING TSA AT AIRPORTS? THIS WELL:

DEVELOPING: Port Arthur, TX: Authorities on scene of possible explosion at Valero refinery, shelter-in-place issued. “Sheriff Zena Stephens tells FOX Beaumont the explosion was likely caused by an industrial heater. Officials also told FOX Beaumont that there are no reported injuries.”

UPDATE:

PARTYING LIKE IT’S 1989: Arsenio Hall lifts the lid on wild late-night era: TV host’s strip club trips with Prince, his showdown with OJ Simpson, and how he got Bill Clinton to play his sax on air.

The new book paints a picture of a chaotic era in television where the line between on-screen success and off-screen excess was often blurred.

The Arsenio Hall Show ran for five years between 1989 and 1994 and featured hundreds of celebrities in what Hall hoped would be a house party on TV every night.

Hall made his show the home of hip-hop and helped break rappers like Snoop Dogg, Tupac and Ice Cube while musical guests included James Brown, Whitney Houston, and Luther Vandross.

The show would win two Emmys and lead Hall to star in hit movies like 1988 comedy, Coming to America, alongside Murphy.

It was an astonishing achievement for the son of a single mother from Cleveland, Ohio, who idolized the talk show host Johnny Carson as a child and began his show business career aged five doing magic shows in the basement of his building.

A switch to comedy and a move to Los Angeles paved the way for Hall to be offered a guest spot hosting The Late Show on Fox after Joan Rivers, the original host, bombed.

Impressed Paramount executives offered Hall his own show, making him the first black, syndicated late night host.

Arsenio was young, hip and cool, and consequently made Johnny Carson look very dated by comparison, and allowed Lorne Michaels, the producer of Saturday Night Love, who had no love lost between him Carson, deliver the kill shot:

“Was it a coincidence that Johnny Carson stepped down as host of the Tonight Show after 29 years just three days after this segment aired on Saturday Night Live? Perhaps. Perhaps not. But this even making the airwaves on Carson’s own NBC network was a bit shocking. I was only 15 years old when this very funny SNL skit played and I even understood what it meant. Johnny Carson was going to be very pissed off by what he saw.”

VDH: Why today’s immigrants to America are so hostile to their new country.

I grew up in rural California surrounded by hard-working immigrant farm families from Armenia, India, Japan and Mexico. Their work ethic, love of America and productive farms were models for US non-immigrants.

My own Swedish grandfather, disabled by poison gas while fighting on the Western Front in World War I, loved all things Swedish, but not nearly as much as his beloved America.

Four Hansons fought on the front lines of World Wars I and II. One was disabled, and another was killed. And all felt blessed that their parents and grandparents had gotten to America.

But something has gone terribly wrong with immigration — an open border, of course, but also a change in legal immigration as well as student visitors.

While America is at war with Iran, crowds of immigrants, visitors and foreign students scream anti-American slogans as they cheer our enemies.

Read the whole thing.

 

KERMIT GOSNELL, ‘HOUSE OF HORRORS’ DOCTOR FOUND GUILTY OF KILLING BABIES, DIES, AGE 85.

In all, Gosnell was found guilty of 237 crimes, including three counts of first-degree murder for the deaths of three babies, as well as involuntary manslaughter for the overdose death of a patient.

During Gosnell’s trial, prosecutors said he regularly performed late-term abortions on babies older than 24 weeks — the cutoff age in Pennsylvania.

Prosecutors also said that Gosnell delivered the babies alive during abortion procedures and then killed them by snipping their spinal cords with scissors.

The former doctor was ultimately sentenced to multiple life sentences, avoiding the death penalty.

What was horrific in 2011 became an unexpectedly routine talking point for Ralph Northam in 2019:

IT’S A MERCY KILLING: Divisive Star Trek: Starfleet Academy Canceled After Two Seasons.

So much for Paramount+‘s Gen Z Star Trek show.

The streamer has decided to end Star Trek: Starfleet Academy after season two.

Starfleet Academy had recently finished airing its debut season. Paramount+ had (rather optimistically, as it turned out) already ordered a second season, which recently wrapped production.

Starfleet Academy has been a polarizing entry in the Trek canon. Many critics have celebrated the show for focusing on a younger generation and its coming-of-age themes. On social media, the show has been a frequent target of mockery from those who claim the show is too “woke.”

On Rotten Tomatoes, the show had an 87 percent positive critics score, but a dismal 51 percent audience score.

The show also never managed to chart among Nielsen’s weekly top 10 streaming lists for viewership.

Funny, ten days ago, Engadget ran with the hottest of hot takes about the show: Starfleet Academy is the best first season of a Star Trek show ever.

The first season of a TV show is a tricky thing. It has to convince people to watch it and justify the show’s existence to the network (or streaming service) execs. It has to deal with actors and writers who may not have fully dialed into the characters and world yet. There are some shows with absolutely stellar first seasons — Stranger Things, Veronica Mars and Ted Lasso are a few — but many other hit shows stumbled out of the gate, like The Office and Supernatural.

Star Trek is not immune to this phenomenon. The Original Series had a decent first season, with classic episodes like “The City on the Edge of Forever.” But the next four shows all have rather weak beginnings, with even fan-favorite The Next Generation stumbling badly with episodes like “Code of Honor.” That show picked up in season three, beginning a trend called “Growing the Beard,” in reference to how Commander Riker’s new beard coincided with the uptick in quality.

The Original Series had a decent first season.” What a way to dismiss all of the worldbuilding by Gene Roddenberry and Gene Coon that set the stage for everything that followed over the next sixty years: The giant faster-than-light starship performing gunboat diplomacy at the edge of the known galaxy. The heroic young captain modeled after Horatio Hornblower. The stoic half-human, half-alien science officer. The crusty doctor and chief engineer. Once Gene Coon joined midseason, he fleshed out the series’ backstory, creating the “United Federation of Planets” as a futuristic substitute for the USA, and crafted the show’s most-popular bad guys, the Klingons. Heck, even Ricardo Montalban showed up in the first season, a decade and a half before replaying his role as the big baddy in the movie that saved the franchise, and gave Star Trek a new lease on life for the next four decades.

But hey, it’s no Starfleet Academy.

Exit quote:

CBS REPORTER WHO RESIGNED OVER BARI WEISS JOINS LEFT-WING PROPAGANDA OUTLET:

As you can see, MacFarlane has found his natural home after leaving CBS. He can now rest assured that no one in top management will influence his reporting by demanding that he shape his political reporting.

See? Bari Weiss really IS destroying CBS News. Without nonpartisan, totally fair and unbiased reporting from excellent journalists like Scott MacFarlane, how will CBS News viewers learn about how Donald Trump is Adolf Hitler?

Or Barry Goldwater.

THE DESIRE NAMED STREETCAR:

From the leftist politicians’ point of view, it really was money well spent. As I wrote last year, when the DC streetcar was first announced as being phased out, why didn’t DC simply program a bus route right from the start? Because of the enormous amount of graft that a streetcar system can generate compared to busses: “A transit agency that expands its bus fleet gets the support of the transit operators union. But an agency that builds a rail line gets the support of construction companies, construction unions, banks and bond dealers, railcar manufacturers, electric power companies (if the railcars are electric powered), downtown property owners, and other real estate interests. Rail may be a negative-sum game for the region as a whole, but those concentrated interests stand to gain a lot at a relatively small expense to everyone else.”

COVID SIX YEARS AGO TODAY: Boris Johnson orders UK lockdown to be enforced by police.

Boris Johnson will order police to enforce a strict coronavirus lockdown, with a ban on gatherings of more than two people and strict limits on exercise, as he told the British public: “You must stay at home.”

The prime minister ratcheted up Britain’s response with an address to the nation on Monday evening, warning that people would only be allowed outside to buy food or medication, exercise alone once a day, or to travel to work if absolutely necessary.

All non-essential shops will close with immediate effect, as will playgrounds and libraries, he said in the address from Downing Street.

After days of being accused of sending mixed messages about what the public should do, Johnson significantly escalated his language as he urged people to comply with the more stringent measures.

“You should not be meeting friends. If your friends ask you to meet, you should say no. You should not be meeting family members who do not live in your home. You should not be going shopping except for essentials like food and medicine – and you should do this as little as you can,” he said.

“If you don’t follow the rules, the police will have the powers to enforce them, including through fines and dispersing gatherings.”

“You should not be meeting friends. If your friends ask you to meet, you should say no.” Some found that order rather difficult to follow, not least of whom was “Professor Lockdown” himself: What Neil Ferguson’s booty call tells us about modern politics.

The conspiratorial left, convinced the world is run by secret cabals of bankers and cigar-chomping media moguls, thinks the Neil Ferguson story is a ‘dead cat’. In other words, they think the Daily Telegraph – Evil Tory Rag – revealed that Ferguson carried on bonking his mistress in defiance of a lockdown that he himself bears much responsibility for in order to distract attention from Britain overtaking Italy with the highest Covid death toll in Europe. A ‘dead cat’ strategy is when a sensationalist story is introduced to the mix to divert attention from a far more serious political crisis. Ferguson’s sexual antics are the Tory regime’s dead cat to Britain’s corona death toll, apparently.

This sums up the political infantilism of the left. It is actually incredibly important news that Ferguson, the Imperial College modeller who said it was possible 500,000 Brits would die if we didn’t lock down, defied the lockdown. It deserves the frontpage treatment it is getting today. For Ferguson’s booty call with his married lover actually reveals a great deal about the 21st-century elites and how they view their relationship with the masses. It’s one rule for them and another for us. They can carry on enjoying sneaky freedoms because their lives and jobs are important; we can’t because we are mere little people, whose silly work lives can casually be disrupted, whose love lives can be turned upside down, and whose families can be ripped apart. The Ferguson affair provides an illuminating insight into the new elitism.

As does the person with whom Ferguson hooked up with on said booty call:

On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, traveled across London from her home in the south of the capital to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown,” reported the Telegraph.

Staats, we later learn, lives with her husband and two children in a £1.9 million home in south London. She’s a “left-wing campaigner” who is reportedly in an open marriage. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one.”

Ah yes, the old our-households-are-one-because-I’m-in-an-open-marriage argument. Never mind that a week before Ferguson and Staats’ first meeting, Britain’s Health Secretary had said even couples not living together must stay apart during the lockdown.

* * * * * * * * *

One rule for the poor people, another rule for us elites. And they wonder how they got Brexit.

But “Professor Lockdown” and his paramour weren’t the only high-ranking brits to violate Boris Johnson’s strict lockdown orders. There was also some chap called…Boris Johnson: U.K. “Partygate” probe reveals details of illegal, booze-fueled parties at PM Boris Johnson’s house during COVID lockdown.

Some of the 16 events under investigation were held at 10 Downing Street — Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s official home and office — and the Cabinet Office, and should not have been allowed to take place, investigator Sue Gray concluded in her 37-page report, adding that “other events should not have been allowed to develop as they did.”

In April, Johnson was for attending his birthday party, making him the first British prime minister ever found to have broken the law while in office.

“What took place at many of these gatherings and the way in which they developed was not in line with COVID guidance at the time,” Gray said.

The report included 10 redacted photographs, including four that show Johnson himself attending a birthday party in his honor in June 2020, and four others that show him raising a glass at another event. Both events were held at his Downing Street office.

Or to put it another way: Boris Johnson Missed His Churchill Moment. The pandemic was Boris’s biggest test. He failed.

The entire world had surrendered to the People’s Republic of China, adopting its totalitarian disease-control strategy, and unlike France or Poland in World War II, we surrendered without a shot being fired. If any man in the world was well-positioned to stand against this, it was the garrulous British renegade, Boris Johnson. Instead, the United Kingdom became a police state.

Well, not the entire world: How Sweden proved the world wrong about lockdowns: The evidence is clear: authoritarian restrictions did not save more lives.

As for Boris’ future, Theodore Dalrymple reviews his autobiography at City Journal and concludes:

How will history—that is to say, those who write history—judge Boris Johnson, and what of his own future? Will he be seen just as a mountebank and an opportunist, who rode a wave of discontent to assuage his own demanding, not to say imperious, ego? To return to the question: Behind the frivolous facade, were there just layers of frivolity ad infinitum, or was there a bedrock of serious intent?

I find it difficult to answer. Again, it is hard to be too damning of a man whom one has met and liked. That was, after all, why George Orwell did not want to meet the authors of the books he reviewed. At the same time, I understand those who splutter at the mention of his name.

As to Boris’s future, I think it would be a mistake to write him off. Public memory is short, and at the next election, in 2028, he will be only 64, by which time, if he continues his present trajectory, Keir Starmer will be the most reviled man in recent British history. Boris will be able to pose again as the only way through an impasse: I got Brexit done; now, I will remove Starmer!

Just pay no attention to what I did during 2020 and 2021…

HIROO ONODA BELIEVED IN HIS CAUSE. For Tay-Tay, it’s just performance art:

 

GREAT MOMENTS IN OMNIPOTENT TOURIST SYNDROME: Left-Wing Activists Descend on Crisis-Stricken Cuba, Enjoy Luxury Hotels, Ride AC Buses.

The convoy includes a mix of activists, political figures, and organizations from across the global Left. Among them is leftist streamer Hasan Piker, who broadcast from Havana to his large social media following while promising to produce additional “content” from the trip.

Other participants include international political figures such as Jeremy Corbyn and representatives from leftist parties across Latin America and Europe.

Some of the groups involved, such as The People’s Forum and Code Pink, have previously drawn scrutiny from U.S. officials over alleged ties to foreign influence networks.

The effort has also been linked to Mariela Castro, daughter of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, underscoring the close coordination between activists and the Cuban government. Organizers say the convoy delivered solar panels, food, and medical supplies, including cancer treatments, to help alleviate the island’s crisis.

Cuba has also received aid shipments from countries including Mexico, Brazil, and China in recent weeks, as concerns grow over a potential humanitarian emergency. Still, questions remain about how the convoy’s aid will be distributed, and whether it will reach ordinary Cubans or be funneled through government-controlled channels.

Such efforts often double as political theater, bolstering the regime’s narrative while doing little to address systemic issues. The images coming out of Havana this weekend highlight a jarring divide: foreign activists documenting their “solidarity” tour with reliable electricity, comfortable transport, and direct access to top officials. Meanwhile, millions of Cubans live through daily blackouts, food shortages, and a collapsing economy.

Reliable electricity, comfortable transport, direct access to top officials, and an Internet connection to the outside world for me, but not for thee:

UPDATE:

(Classical reference in headline.)