WITAH?
Still developing — and quickly.
UPDATE: Here’s some background from an OSINT account:
Yesterday I published an analysis on the tanker MARINERA arguing that this was not a routine sanctions evasion case and not a simple oil shipment problem because the behavior around this vessel did not fit commercial logic and instead tracked with mission logic. Three hours later, the Wall Street Journal confirmed that Russia has deployed naval units, including a submarine, to escort MARINERA through the North Atlantic and deter any U.S. attempt to board or seize her, which materially changes how this transit should be understood.
States do not assign submarines to protect fuel cargo, and they do not escalate naval posture to defend a marginal tanker.. A submarine escort is not asset protection and it is not commercial risk management but deterrence signaling used when cargo, passengers, or onboard capability are politically or strategically sensitive. In my report, I assessed that MARINERA was likely tied to the movement of high value personnel, ISR capability, or sensitive mission equipment, and that the early U.S. interest combined with Russia’s political response suggested this was being treated as a protected transfer rather than a commercial shipment.
The Russian decision to deploy naval escorts, including a submarine, aligns with that assessment because oil and a rusty hull are replaceable while people and capabilities are not. This is why this case is now being handled as a contested movement operation rather than a shipping issue. This is also why it is drawing military assets, why it is being defended in the open, and why it should be analyzed as a strategic transfer problem rather than protecting a comparatively worthless shadow fleet asset.
The escort, as I predicted in my report, confirms that “Marinera” is not about sanctioned oil and never was.
If this were fiction, it might be the start of a Clancy thriller.
ANOTHER UPDATE:
Iran’s missing nuclear materials, maybe? The only people who know aren’t talking — and shouldn’t be.
LAST ONE:
Whatever it is, it’s ours now.
