Author Archive: Stephen Green

EPIC FURY: This Is No Longer a Ceasefire — It’s a Strategic Pause.

The brief ceasefire announced on April 8 serves distinct strategic purposes. While Iran utilizes this window to recover from initial kinetic impacts, the U.S. decision to pause is a calculated combination of military, economic, and political factors:

• Stabilization and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA): Following successful strikes, military logic dictates a pause to secure achievements. This window allows U.S. intelligence to analyze material and personnel losses, assess remaining resistance capacity, and re-coordinate forces for the next phase.

• Managed Warfare: By demonstrating the ability to halt and restart operations, the U.S. signals that this is a “controlled war.” This was immediately reflected in the stabilization of global oil prices, mitigating market panic.

• Diplomatic Ultimatum: In high-level geopolitics, a pause initiated by the stronger side is a method of “Pressure Through Pause.” It allows Washington to present final diplomatic ultimatums while simultaneously finalizing logistics and ally coordination.

• Domestic Political Signaling: Internally, the pause reassures the American public that the administration is avoiding an open-ended entanglement, framing the conflict as a precise, results-oriented operation.

• Psychological Disruption of the Ruling Elite: President Trump’s repeated signals that current Iranian negotiators are viewed by Washington as part of Iran’s future governance add a profound layer of psychological warfare to this ceasefire. By engaging the “next generation” of leadership, the U.S. intentionally sows seeds of distrust and paranoia within the current hierarchy. This window is designed to trigger internal friction, suspicion, and potential fractures among the ruling elite, as they begin to question each other’s loyalty to the current order.

More to come…

IT’S A REGION WITH LONG MEMORIES:

But, hey, if the Turks want to play the nationalist card, why not the Greeks, too?

WELL, TRUMP DID JUST KNEECAP A COMPETITOR:

THE NEW SPACE RACE: The Artemis II mission has ended. Where does NASA go from here?

The biggest questions for Artemis III and Artemis IV involve the development of lunar landers by SpaceX and Blue Origin.

Ars recently interviewed NASA’s chief of exploration, Lori Glaze, and she said both companies are making a “real commitment” toward meeting NASA’s needs. But both companies have a long way to go from the prototype hardware they’re currently testing to specialized landers capable of safely landing on (and taking off from) the Moon.

Even for Artemis III, a simpler mission closer to Earth, there are serious challenges. SpaceX and Blue Origin must go through NASA’s extensive “human rating” process for their Starship and Blue Moon vehicles, respectively, before they can approach and dock with Orion.

Also, it is non-trivial for SpaceX and Blue Origin to integrate with Orion, which has fairly strict limits for thermal management and other issues. Even ensuring roughly equivalent cabin pressures between two vehicles is a significant task. Completing all of this within the next 12 to 18 months will be a difficult hill to climb.

Then, for Artemis IV, there are even greater hurdles. For SpaceX, the company must test and then become efficient at refueling Starship in low-Earth orbit for a trip to the Moon, and back. And Blue Origin, which has very limited experience in spaceflight operations, must develop a more capable version of its Blue Moon Mk. 1 lander, which is itself untested.

Both companies must also learn to operate in lunar orbit, and master landing their vehicles on the Moon and then subsequently lifting them off from the lunar surface.

There is no question that lunar lander readiness is the longest pole for both Artemis III and Artemis IV.

Starship development has been in a bit of a lull, but this looks promising:

“The best part is no part.”

NOAH SMITH IS ONE OF THOSE ENGAGEMENT FARMERS I USUALLY TRY TO AVOID:

VOTE WITH YOUR FEET, EH:

It says that Canada is turning itself in a third-world nation.

If Alberta and Saskatchewan would like to put a stop to that, we could help.

ANALYSIS: TRUE.

IF THE ISRAELIS WANTED A GENOCIDE, THERE’D BE NO GAZA. PERIOD:

And from the replies: “They want to exaggerate the crimes of Netanyahu, whilst simultaneously diminishing the crimes of the Nazis.”

IF IT’S DAMAGING TO AMERICAN INTERESTS, THE SAFE DEFAULT IS TO BELIEVE OBAMA PROBABLY DID IT:

THE FIX IS IN, PART II:

Previously:

THE FIX IS IN:

You get less of what you punish, and it looks like war heroes are no longer wanted in Australia.

FLORIDA MAN FRIDAY [VIP]: Sir, This Is a Wendy’s. “It’s time for your much-needed break from the serious news, and this week, we’ll learn how to get charged with pretty much everything, the worst excuse for speeding, and how they (almost) get home from the liquor store in Kentucky these days.”

COLONIALISM, STRAIGHT UP:

WELL, YEAH — BUT THAT WAS BEFORE ANYBODY CALLED THEIR BLUFF:

IT’S TIME FOR VICTORIA TAFT’S West Coast, Messed Coast™: Hey, Where’d All That Money Go? “Here’s the truth. The insiders in Sacramento, Salem, and Olympia have been using social service non-profits, NGOs, and questionable charitable groups as passthroughs for their friends and pet constituencies for years. Billions have been gifted to insiders and friends. And now — at long last — actual taxpayers have gotten wise to the grift. You can thank independent journalists for highlighting these absurd expenses in a much simpler and understandable way than thick books or endless PDFs filled with intentionally confusing stats, opaquely written conclusions, and puffed-up executive summaries that don’t reflect the data can ever do.”