Author Archive: Stephen Green

FINALLY, THE TRUTH: Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years.

The phenomenon of undercounting inflation is particularly concerning today given how high the official inflation measurements have been for the last several years. The inflation itself has increased the nominal values of several key economic metrics without resulting in any real change. This is why there has been such a disparity between the rapid rise in nominal, pre-inflation GDP and the relatively slow increase in real, after-inflation GDP.8

The following data are presented in such a way as to show the reader the change in nominal and real values through the second quarter of 2024, beginning in either the first quarter of 2019 or January 2019, when applicable.

Note that not only are the inflation adjustments large, but they are highly variable, ranging from under 20% for wholesale sales to 22% to 23% for manufacturing inventories and new orders.

While 3% may seem like a small difference, in the context of GDP growth it represents nearly a $1 trillion difference in real output – roughly the GDP of Saudi Arabia. And in the context of annual economic growth, 3% over a 4-year period is a very large number – the difference between robust and anemic growth. Or between anemic growth and recession.

Plus: “On a per capita basis, the results are worse because the population has increased approximately 2.1 percent from the first quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2024. During that period, nominal GDP per capita increased $22,182, or 34.7 percent. Real GDP increased $7,038 in chained 2017 dollars, or 11.4 percent. Adjusted real GDP fell $1,540, or 2.5 percent.”

We can’t afford four more years: “On differences with Biden, Harris says ‘not a thing that comes to mind.’”

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: This Biden Guy Doesn’t Seem to Be a Big Kamala Harris Fan. “We can’t be positive, but it would seem that President LOLEightyonemillion is not amused and may be harboring some animosity. It makes sense to direct it at the person who benefitted most from his forced ouster — Kamala Harris.”

SHUT UP, THEY EXPLAINED: Reddit bans forum dedicated to sharing information about would-be Trump assassin Thomas Crooks. “The posts issued on the forum varied, but all pertained to seeking answers and sharing information about the historical assassination attempt on the 2024 GOP nominee’s life. Questions about Crooks, security failures that day, and whether the attempt was an inside job were discussed in the section before the ban. Reddit did not provide an example of the violent content shared that went against its company policies.”

DON’T BE EVIL: Google Does It Again, Buries US-Based Right-Leaning News on Election 23-Pages Deep.

Last week, MRC researchers found that Google buried US-based right-leaning news outlets on the 14th page of search results. It appears that the tech giant is still at it, as it continues to hide right-leaning outlets in the depths of search results.

On Oct. 8, MRC researchers once again used AllSides “right” and “left” bias classifications and found that Google search results for “kamala harris presidential race 2024” and “donald trump presidential race 2024” were stuffed with leftist, legacy media sources. The results featured outlets like CNN and The New York Times as well as publications of leftist billionaires like Jeff Bezos’s The Washington Post and Marc Benioff’s Time. When searching for the aforementioned Harris search prompt, researchers did not find any U.S.-based media outlets that AllSides rates as “lean-right” or “right” until Fox News appeared as the first result on page 11 of Google search results. Likewise, Google buried the first U.S.-based “lean right” or “right” result for the aforementioned Trump prompt as the sixth result on the 23rd page, as Google featured a Fox News video in this spot.

Although one “lean right” video appeared in the search results for the Trump prompt, Google outrageously did not display a single “right” or “lean right” news article from a U.S.-based source anywhere in the tech giant’s search results, which ran out after 26 pages.

This overt leftist bias is especially concerning considering that according to a November 2023 Pew Research survey, a rising number of American adults receive their news from search.

Related:

CBS NEWS LIES:

“Besides inserting a different response from Harris, CBS edited out everything about Harris defending Israel from Hamas and Hezbollah and their right to do so,” Miller continued. “The tracks time up almost exactly. This was not ‘edited for time’ as CBS and 60 Minutes will likely claim.”

UPDATE (From Ed): Miller ponders if the CBS edits dovetail with their massive anti-Israel bias, as exposed in their ongoing struggle session with Tony Dokoupil over his grievous crime of committing actual journalism by interviewing Ta-Nehisi Coates:

UPDATE (9:19 pm) John Nolte makes the connection: CBS Corruption – Anchor Shamed for Coates Interview, ‘60 Minutes’ Rigs Kamala Interview.  “If CBS had released the full, unedited transcript, Kamala’s word salad answer would be found elsewhere in the transcript, and it’s not. So this is not an unedited transcript. This is the Kamala Harris Campaign-Approved Transcript. And let us never forget that this is the same CBS News and 60 Minutes that still hasn’t retracted its lies about the Hunter Biden laptop being Russian disinformation. So, to sum things up, if you gently ask an antisemitic leftist like Ta-Nehisi Coates a few challenging questions, CBS News will publicly shame you until you buckle. But if you rig an interview to make a Democrat look smarter than she is, that’s a-okay. Antisemites and Democrats sure got it good…Especially at CBS.”

SPACE: NASA Strengthens Safety Protocol in Response to Persistent Air Leak in International Space Station.

The leak, first identified in 2019 within the Zvezda module’s PrK vestibule, has been under investigation and mitigation efforts.

A report from NASA’s Office of Inspector General indicated that the leak had escalated to nearly 1.7 kilograms per day by April 2024, prompting the ISS program to categorise it as a high-risk issue. However, NASA officials have reported significant improvements, noting that recent repairs have decreased the leak rate by about one-third.

The root cause of the leak remains under scrutiny, with both NASA and Roscosmos investigating internal and external welds. As a precaution, station crews maintain the hatch to the affected area closed when not in use to minimize the leak’s impact on overall station operations.

While NASA and Roscosmos collaborate on resolving the issue, they have not yet agreed on what constitutes an “untenable” leak rate. If the situation deteriorates further, a potential long-term solution could involve permanently sealing the hatch, which would eliminate a docking port for Progress and Soyuz spacecraft.

“Long-term” isn’t much for a station tentatively scheduled to be deorbited in 2030.

FASTER, PLEASE: US FAA could approve SpaceX Starship 5 license this month, source says.

The Federal Aviation Administration could approve a license for the launch of SpaceX’s Starship 5 as soon as this month, a source told Reuters on Tuesday.

Last month, the FAA said it did not expect a determination on a license before late November. SpaceX said on social media late on Monday that Starship’s fifth flight test could launch as soon as Oct. 13, pending regulatory approval.

The FAA, which has repeatedly said it did not expect to decide on a license until late November, on Tuesday only said it continues to review the proposed mission and would make a decision “once SpaceX has met all licensing requirements.” It made no mention of the November timeframe.

Previously:

ANALYSIS: TRUE. Chinese hack of US ISPs shows why Apple is right about backdoors for law enforcement.

It was revealed this weekend that Chinese hackers managed to access systems run by three of the largest internet service providers (ISPs) in the US.

What’s notable about the attack is that it compromised security backdoors deliberately created to allow for wiretaps by US law enforcement.

Apple famously refused the FBI’s request to create a backdoor into iPhones to help access devices used by shooters in San Bernardino and Pensacola. The FBI was subsequently successful in accessing all the iPhones concerned without the assistance it sought.

Our arguments against such backdoors predate both cases, when Apple spoke out on the issue in the wake of terrorist attacks in Paris more than a decade ago.

Even if Washington could be trusted not to exploit backdoors (they can’t be), they can’t be trusted to keep those backdoors from being exploited by hackers.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: I’m Starting to Miss Joe Biden’s Relatively Coherent Public Appearances. “It’s one thing for someone new to the spotlight to have a case of the nerves and ramble during an interview. Kamala Harris has been in the public eye and in front of television cameras for 20 years now. Her mush-mouthed lunacy is chronic and incurable. How in the hell are millions of eligible voters convincing themselves that she’s functional?”

HEADS NEED TO ROLL: Navy Says 26 Ships Affected by Faulty Welds at Newport News Shipyard in Virginia. “In a letter to Congress dated Oct. 3, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said that poor welds were found on the aircraft carrier USS George Washington as well as the attack submarines USS Hyman G. Rickover and USS New Jersey. In addition, the welding issues were identified on 23 more ships — a mix of new construction, ships in maintenance and aircraft carriers undergoing refueling.”

EDUCATION: 39% of public-school parents are satisfied with their child’s school.

The most satisfied — 70 percent — have a child in a parochial or other religious school, and non-religious private schools and homeschools are close behind at 65 percent. About half of those with kids in public magnets, charters, online schools and microschools are satisfied.

Support for school choice — especially parent-controlled Education Savings Accounts — is high, reports Colyn Ritter, citing EdChoice’s Schooling in America Survey. “About two-thirds of Americans support school vouchers, charter schools, and tax-credit scholarships. Support for ESAs is much higher at 76 percent.” Parents with school-age children are even more enthusiastic.

Support for school choice could help Donald Trump carry the swing states, predicts Corey DeAngelis, a choice advocate, in the New York Post.

One party acts as a wholly owned subsidiary of the teachers’ unions. Vote accordingly.

GEORGE MF WASHINGTON: The Lost Art of the Sitcom Opening.“Always underneath these broadly comedic shows of the ’70s ran that intriguing undercurrent of melancholy. The juxtaposition is striking. Perhaps it was a sign of the times.”

POSTMODERN PROBLEMS: Sexbots? In My Cloud Stack? It’s More Likely Than You Think. “I’ve long been amazed at the hyperparasitism of the hacker exploit ecosystem, where hackers penetrate systems not to steal credit card numbers, but just to steal the resources to run bot farms. And now hackers are stealing cloud resources to run AI sexbots.”

COLD WAR II: U.S. Nuclear Deterrence: What Went Wrong and What Can Be Done? “Contemporary U.S. plans for the modernization of nuclear forces are an approximately 15-year-old legacy of the Obama Administration. They were established at a time when many U.S. officials believed that U.S. relations with Russia and China were relatively benign and would remain so, or improve further. Correspondingly, these plans reflected no sense of urgency and, with the exception of a modified B61 bomb, nothing is soon-to-be operational. How a new presidential administration and Congress decide to (or not) adapt the U.S. nuclear posture given the unmistakable reality of a much more dangerous than expected contemporary threat environment will affect the U.S. nuclear force posture for decades, and, consequently, U.S. deterrence strategies and options.”

Previously: Obama: The ’80s called, they want their foreign policy back.