Author Archive: Stephen Green

“MELTDOWN” SEEMS STRONG, BUT WE’LL SEE: Putin turns to North Korean troops as Russia’s economy heads for a ‘meltdown.’

Moscow and Pyongyang have denied any troop exchanges.

But analysts are increasingly pointing to the underlying weakness of Russia’s economy, which appears stronger due to enormous defense spending, and predicting that it will struggle to sustain its war on Ukraine.

In addition to the Western sanctions that have largely shut out Moscow from the global financial system, Russia has suffered a massive brain drain of talent fleeing the country as well as hundreds of thousands of war casualties.

That’s contributed to a tight labor market and high inflation as the defense industry and military mobilization occupy a greater share of the working-age population—representing obstacles in President Vladimir Putin’s ability to raise more troops for his war.

In an op-ed for The Hill on Monday, Rutgers University-Newark political science professor Alexander J. Motyl predicted the Russian economy will suffer a “meltdown” next year.

Despite my pessimism over a “meltdown,” the Russian central bank did raise the prime interest rate to 19% last month — hardly a sign of strength — and it’s expected to go over 20% during 2025.

PLEASE, STOP, I CAN ONLY VOTE FOR HIM ONCE:

WOEING: Boeing’s CEO Is Shrinking the Jet Maker to Stop Its Crisis From Spiraling.

Even if the deal is ratified on Wednesday and union members go back to work, the company remains in a perilous financial position. Industry insiders and analysts have begun to ponder something previously unthinkable: whether a breakup or bankruptcy is in Boeing’s future if it remains on its current trajectory.

Boeing is exploring asset sales that could bring in much-needed cash while shedding noncore or underperforming units, according to people familiar with the discussions. Days before the gala, the company’s board met at Boeing’s Arlington, Va., headquarters, where directors quizzed division heads and combed through reports on the state of each unit, mulling next steps for the beleaguered plane maker.

Boeing has spread itself too thin and must shrink, Ortberg wrote in a note to employees earlier this month. “We need to be clear-eyed about the work we face,” he wrote. “We also need to focus our resources on performing and innovating in the areas that are core to who we are.”

Ortberg has moved to raise at least $10 billion in cash and slash thousands of jobs to stem losses that have exacerbated Boeing’s manufacturing woes and damaged a complex supply chain.

Boeing has tried unsuccessfully to sell a rocket joint-venture it shares with Lockheed Martin, and remains saddled with U.S. government programs like a troubled military refueling tanker and Air Force One replacement jets. Last week, the company reached a deal to offload a small defense subsidiary that makes surveillance equipment for the U.S. military, people familiar with the deal said.

Ortberg took the helm of the company in August. He will make his first public comments as CEO on Wednesday, when the union is set to vote on the new contract and Boeing will detail its financial results for the period ended Sept. 30. The company has warned that it will book billions of dollars in charges and report a $6 billion quarterly loss.

Something that cannot go on forever will stop.

There’s still a lot of value locked up in Boeing but there’s still no indication management knows how to get it out.

AS A MATTER OF FACT, YES, I WOULD:

It’s really hard to dehumanize someone who always seems to be having so much fun but the Left just won’t stop trying.

JUST ANOTHER DAY IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Firefighters work to control blazes from Hezbollah launches in northern Israel | Around 160 rockets fired at northern Israel today.

More:

Trump says Bibi is winning because he is ‘not listening’ to Biden.

Speaking at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called him over the weekend and told him he is “not listening” to U.S. President Joe Biden.

“Bibi called me today and he said, it’s incredible. What’s happened, they said it’s pretty incredible. But he wouldn’t listen to Biden, because if he did, they wouldn’t be in this position,” Trump told the crowds at the campaign event. “And I tell you what, they’re in a much stronger position now than they were three months ago, that’s for sure.”

Netanyahu isn’t listening to Harris, either.

THIS IS THE KIND OF THING THAT DELAYED STARSHIP FLIGHT 5 FOR MONTHS:

Developing…

UNHINGED SEGMENTS OF HER VOTING BASE REQUIRE HER TO AVOID ANSWERING THIS QUESTION: Will Kamala commit to certifying a Trump win?

We find ourselves in a unique situation in 2024, as several close allies of Kamala Harris are signaling that should Trump capture the Electoral College, they will not certify his win this time around, citing everything from his criminal cases against him, to an invocation of the Fourteenth Amendment. Kamala Harris, as the sitting vice president of the United States, must answer if she will certify a Trump victory, despite the calls against doing so coming from those close to her campaign.

Liz Cheney, who led the charge on the January 6 Committee, has said that Trump is disqualified from holding office again, despite having not being charged or convicted of any crime, such as sedition. Cheney has appeared with Harris on the campaign trail and is being considered for a cabinet position, according to Harris herself. The former congresswoman is working with the campaign on moderating Harris’s message and advising her on foreign policy, which includes the US supporting Ukraine.

One Cheney ally on the House January 6 Committee was Representative Jamie Raskin, who also stood in protest of the 2016 electoral results. Raskin is on record saying that even if Trump wins the Electoral College, that Congress will simply refuse to seat him, invoking the Fourteenth Amendment. Raskin has also endorsed Kamala Harris’s campaign and several of her polices. Raskin said in December of last year that Trump is ineligible to hold office again and is on video confirming his support for this as well.

Lawfare activist groups around the country have filed legal challenges to keep Trump off ballots altogether, with a Colorado Supreme Court decision having to be overturned. Kamala Harris has hired heavyweight Democrat lawyer Marc Elias to her election legal team. He was one of the sponsors of many of the groups that attempted to keep Trump off ballots. When those tactics failed, Raskin told Axios, “Congress will have to try and act.”

All of these moves seem to foreshadow several legal and political challenges to a Trump victory — and it will ultimately be up to Harris to rebuff them and carry out her constitutional duty of certifying a Trump victory.

Stay tuned…

SHE’S FLAILING:

Around this time in 2008, similar stories were coming out about the McCain campaign.

SLOUCHING TOWARD WORLD WAR III: North Korea sends 1,500 troops to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine, South Korea’s spy agency says.

The hermit nation transported its special forces fighters on seven Russian ships earlier in October, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a press release on Friday.

Those units had previously been personally inspected by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the agency added.

Large Russian transport aircraft have also been frequently traveling between Vladivostok and Pyongyang, it said.

Meanwhile:

The Russo-Ukraine War as a proxy for Korean War Phase II?

FLORIDA MAN FRIDAY [VIP]: Don’t Mess with His Favorite Flamethrower. “It’s time for your much-needed break from the serious news, and this week we learn not to get between Florida Man and his favorite flamethrower, how to ride your jetski indoors, and Minnesota Man’s daring radio tower rescue.”

HIGHER EDUCATION BUBBLE UPDATE:

There’s a lot more than just DEI to weed out of our universities.

DON’T GET COCKY: Blowing Off the Al Smith Dinner Might Have Cost Harris Pennsylvania — and the Election.

Related (From Ed): Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey Runs an Ad Boasting He ‘Bucked Biden’ and ‘Sided with Trump.’

If you’re the Casey campaign, the only reason you run ads touting where you agree with Trump is if Trump is winning in your state, and/or the voters dislike you because they think you’re a knee-jerk partisan opponent of everything Trump does. This feels like a quiet admission by the Casey campaign that their internal numbers show Trump with a small but significant lead in the Keystone State.

But in any case, definitely forswear all appearances of the cockiness.

HE’S RIGHT:

SLS requires Starship and the Lunar Gateway to get enough mass to the moon to make Artemis work. Starship can do the whole thing by itself. All things being equal, Artemis makes no sense.

But all things aren’t equal. SLS costs $4 billion per launch — just for the disposable rocket. SpaceX hopes to drive Starship costs down to $10 million per launch — or less — for a fully (and rapidly) reusable rocket.

Starship requires several launches to bring a full load of cargo to the moon because the second stage requires orbital refueling from more than one tanker. But SLS still costs 40 or 50 times what Starship would — while still requiring Starship to complete Artemis and to get Lunar Gateway built.

Whatever becomes of Artemis specifically or the lunar program generally, there’s zero case for SLS.

MORE NUKES IS GOOD NUKES: Amazon goes nuclear, to invest more than $500 million to develop small modular reactors.

AWS announced it has signed an agreement with Dominion Energy, Virginia’s utility company, to explore the development of a small modular nuclear reactor, or SMR, near Dominion’s existing North Anna nuclear power station. Nuclear reactors produce no carbon emissions.

An SMR is an advanced type of nuclear reactor with a smaller footprint that allows it to be built closer to the grid. They also have faster construction times than traditional reactors, allowing them to come online sooner.

Amazon is the latest large tech company to buy into nuclear power to fuel the growing demands from data centers. Earlier this week, Google announced it will purchase power from SMR developer Kairos Power. Constellation Energy is restarting Three Mile Island to power Microsoft data centers.

I’m pleasantly surprised that the Chinese/Russians/Saudis (pick one or more!) don’t already have an astroturf environmental campaign in place to derail these nuclear plans.