THE BETTING LINE:
Today is the Democratic primary for NYC mayor.
Zohran Mamdani, co‑founder of Students for Justice in Palestine and a proud member of the Democratic Socialists of America, is leading in most polls. pic.twitter.com/GBOrzVue8h
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 24, 2025
I’ve stocked up on extra unexpectedlies in case New Yorkers decide to go full gooder and harder.
THE ENEMY WITHIN: New Figures on Iranians Let in Under Biden Reportedly Emerge as US Braces for Tehran Counterattack. “The Biden administration arrested 1,504 Iranian nationals during fiscal year 2021 through fiscal year 2024, releasing 729 of these individuals into the country, according to Customs and Border Protection data obtained by Fox News. The newly released data follows U.S. military airstrikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities, sparking vows of retaliation from the Islamic regime.”
Iran seems to have backed down for now, just as they did the last time Trump hit them hard with the Soleimani killing.
KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Muzzle Mahmoud Khalil, and Other Fun Party Ideas. “That’s the thing though, isn’t it? The America-haters who come here from somewhere else never want to go anywhere else — especially back to where they came from. In a world that hadn’t gone completely insane, Mahmoud Khalil would be given a one-way ticket to go complain about the United States in a different country.”
MONEY: Fed officials are starting to break rank and join Trump.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman on Monday downplayed the potential impacts of Trump’s tariffs on prices and said the US central bank should swiftly lower rates to preserve the labor market’s health.
“It is time to consider adjusting the policy rate,” Bowman said. “Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market.”
Bowman is the second Fed official to join Trump in calling for lower borrowing costs. On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said tariffs will likely only result in a “one-off” increase in inflation. Both Bowman and Waller are Trump appointees.
Other Fed officials aren’t quite joining Trump in calling for lower rates, but are signaling they’re warming up to the idea of it.
The housing market could certainly use the relief.
GOODER AND HARDER: Is New York City About to Go Full Communist?
PROMISES, PROMISES: NATO members agree to increase defense spending to 5%.
NATO members agreed on Sunday to increase defense spending to 5% of their countries’ GDP, a benchmark long sought by President Donald Trump, who had complained more vocally than other US presidents that his country had shouldered much of Europe’s security for too long.
Spain had sought to block the measure, but ultimately dropped its opposition after a deal was reached for it to be exempt.
It is expected that NATO members will vote in favor of ramping up defense spending to 5% during the upcoming two-day NATO meeting set to start Tuesday in The Hague.
Once adopted, all member nations except Spain will have until 2035 to reach the goal of 5%.
The agreement calls for at least 3.5% of national GDP to be spent on core military needs, while an additional 1.5% can be allocated for related expenditures.
Ten years to reach a modest goal that Britain, France, Germany, and Italy aren’t serious about, and that Spain got out of just by complaining?
VICTORIA TAFT: A Chick Was One of ‘Our Boys’ Who Bombed Iran. Mullahs and Democrats Hardest Hit. “Do the media really need to give the Islamist 12th Imam nutters another target as they did in this bizarre Washington Post article plotting on maps where all the American forces were operating in the Middle East? What’s next, targeting coordinates?”
Details to come.
Update: It takes two to tango.
JUST IN 🔴
Israel has not officially confirmed a ceasefire. The security cabinet is still in session. – YNET
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 23, 2025
More: CNN reports that Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal.
Did Trump hit the Send button too soon?
(Link to Trump’s original post was missing before, but it’s included now.)
MASS TRANSIT: Copper thieves target Seattle-area light rail, shutting down train line. “The incident comes as the agency is also managing emergency repairs on the 1 Line in Seattle. Five downtown stations were closed over the weekend to address broken rail segments, forcing passengers to rely on buses and streetcars.”
WELL, TUCKER:
Tucker 3 wks ago wrote that Iran “has a fearsome arsenal of ballistic missiles, many of which are aimed at US military installations in the Gulf.” He
predicted, “The first week of a war with Iran could easily kill thousands of Americans.” https://t.co/7swGoUGnPZ— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) June 23, 2025
One report claimed Iran tried to launch 80 missiles today, got off 20, and that the remainder were destroyed on the ground.
JONATHAN TURLEY: ‘Where’s Jackie?”: Why the Public Needs Answers on Biden’s Alleged Incapacity.
When then-President Joe Biden asked in September 2022 if House Rep. Jackie Walorski, an Indiana Republican who had died weeks earlier in a car accident, was in a meeting, observers were shocked. Biden had not only issued a statement of condolence; he had attended the congresswoman’s memorial service to lower the flags at the White House in her honor.
As Washington Post media critic Erik Wemple noted last week, that moment should have been a wake-up call. In Washington parlance, it left no room for “plausible deniability” about whether Biden was still fit to hold the office of president. And it wasn’t just Democratic politicians who were willfully blind to Biden’s obvious deterioration; it was the media, too.
That’s why the country should fully support President Donald Trump’s June 4 order for his administration to investigate Biden’s competence and answer some of these questions, including the possible abuse of an autopen to sign legislation, pardons and other documents while he was president, instead of looking for political motivations.
Similarly, the Republican-led House Oversight Committee is also investigating.
The New York Times called it part of Trump’s “campaign of retribution against his perceived enemies” and “the latest effort by President Trump to stoke conspiracy theories about his predecessor.”
There is a weird dissonance when journalists blame Biden’s White House for a coverup, but then criticize efforts to investigate that coverup.
There’s no dissonance when you remember that journalists like Jake Tapper aren’t actually blaming the Biden White House for a coverup.
They’re merely trying to cover their asses for their role in it.
ASKING THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS: Is New York City About to Go Full Communist?
THE NEW SPACE RACE: Increase in Ariane 6 launch cadence could take several years.
During a panel at the Paris Air Show June 17, David Cavaillolès, chief executive of Arianespace, emphasized his desire to ramp up launches of the Ariane 6, which has performed two launches to date.
“We need to go to 10 launches per year for Ariane 6 as soon as possible,” he said. “It’s twice as more as for Ariane 5, so it’s a big industrial change.”
After the inaugural launch of Ariane 6 last July, Arianespace launched the second Ariane 6 in March, placing a French reconnaissance satellite into orbit. Cavaillolès reiterated earlier plans to conduct four more Ariane 6 launches through the end of the year, including the first launch of the more powerful Ariane 64 variant with four solid-rocket boosters.
However, he declined to offer a specific timeline for increasing launch cadence to 10 per year. “Everybody is extremely motivated, but we want to do it step by step,” he said. “First we have to deliver on ’25 and this is a big challenge, so we focus on that.”
First maybe they need to find customers willing to pay about three times more than SpaceX charges per kilogram to orbit.
BREAKING: Iran Strikes Back. “Iran has launched a series of ballistic missiles, currently seven total, at American military bases in Qatar and Iraq as part of Operation Basharat al-Fath. Siren are also sounding in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Explosions in the air have been reported by witnesses on the ground.”
UPDATE: The attack seems to have been a whole lot of not much — half a dozen or so missiles, all intercepted.
🔴Just as I posted earlier, this was all a show (a very weak show) for the propaganda machine of Iran. 10 missiles launched, most intercepted. No injuries or casualties. If this is what the “gate of hell” looks like. We are in good shape. https://t.co/Qk4N0Z3ot5
— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) June 23, 2025
But then there’s this:
The New York Times reports that Iran coordinated the missile attacks on the U.S. air base in Qatar with Qatari officials, providing advance warning to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans.
— ILRedAlert (@ILRedAlert) June 23, 2025
It’s complicated, as they say.
MAKING ARGENTINA GREAT AGAIN: Common Sense Gun Reform: Argentina’s Milei Opens Semi-Auto Gun Ownership to the Masses.
VICTORIA TAFT: I Guess We Know Who Learned a Lesson From That Signalgate ‘Scandal’ … and It Wasn’t the Democrats. “Jeffrey Goldberg wasn’t on the Signal chat this time; hell, there wasn’t even a Signal chat between Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and top defense officials that we know of leading up to the Iran nuclear strike on Saturday night. The operational security surrounding the meticulously planned and flawlessly orchestrated strikes on Iran was on such close hold that they were over and our bombers out of Iranian airspace before the mullahs knew about it.”
HMM:
This would usually mean an attack is expected soon. https://t.co/6unRszjP6N
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 23, 2025
More: “Qatar did not take the decision to close its airspace lightly; over a dozen inbound aircraft have been forced to divert, and dozens more are currently grounded at Doha’s Hamad International Airport.”
Developing…
Update: “Airspace over the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar has been officially closed, per a newly issued NOTAM.”
JENNIFER GRIFFIN: “In 18 Years, I’ve Never Seen Such Operational Security.”
The other thing I can point out is that this is an operation—in the last 18 years since I’ve been at the Pentagon—I’ve never seen such operational security. There was nobody speaking about this, any of the preparations. There was a complete lockdown—almost a blackout—of information for the last few days.
I’m sitting here in the Pentagon right now. I can tell you the hallways are empty. All of the information is coming right now out of the White House. That is a significant achievement because there were no leaks about the timing.
Trump 47 runs a much tighter ship.
BE GENTLE, HE’S LOST A LOT OF FRIENDS IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO: Barack Obama Lets the Mask Slip Again.
GOOD LORD:
The former abortion reporter for the Washington Post is VERY mad that Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has a big family. Apparently she sent a deranged list of questions to the family demanding to know why they didn’t abort their oldest daughter. What a psycho! pic.twitter.com/LfrTL9x0Vo
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) June 23, 2025
YES. NEXT QUESTION? Is the U.S. Vulnerable to a Drone Sneak Attack?
Israel’s recent attack on Iran further demonstrates the unstoppable power of drones swarming from bases already within the target country. Evidence has emerged that Israel pre-positioned drones within the interior of Iran. Details are sparse, but we can hypothesize that the Israeli attack exploited a technique similar to the one recently used by the Ukrainians: hauling truck boxes disguised as commercial shipping deep into the interior of the target country near the most sensitive targets. When the agents are safely out of harm’s way, a remote signal activates the automated drones to deliver small explosive payloads with devastating precision.
The Russian nuclear-capable bombers presented a soft target to the Ukrainians; the Iranian military leadership was an even softer target for Israel. Technology exists to create killer drones with facial recognition software and AI navigation that can stealthily hunt down specific targets. When they locate the target, a charge large enough to take out that target alone explodes within point-blank range.
Unlike the advancements in ironclads, nuclear weapons, or aircraft carriers, a massive industrial effort is not required to build drones. China, Iran, Russia, and many other countries are automating drone production on a massive scale, as if the survival of their regimes depends on it. And it seems likely that warfare is changing so that regime longevity does depend on a credible drone offense and defense capability.
Ukraine and Israel were both able to sneak drones into countries that aren’t exactly open and friendly places — so of course we’re vulnerable, too.
MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN: MIGA by Airstrike: Israel Targets Tehran’s Grip on Power.
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