JOE ROGAN: ‘Wokeness Killed the Comedy Movie.’ “The new comedy rulebook, unofficial but binding, makes adult humor a challenge if not a career-threatening endeavor.”

LAUGHING WOLF: The Puzzles In Play, And The Missing Pieces.

Aside from mores, one of the most common mistakes in analysis comes from thinking that the events taking place are a single jigsaw puzzle. That if we can just find all the pieces and get them in place, the picture will be complete and allow complete understanding of who, what, why, when, etc.

Real life, however, is never that neat. No matter how hard anyone, analyst or politician, tries to pound things flat into and into that ideal picture, the 3-D mess just keeps popping back up. For any given event, there are a large number of puzzles in play, and what makes life fun is trying to figure out not only what pieces you have (and don’t have), but to which puzzle they belong. Some actually belong to several puzzles at once. Fun!

In this case, the “main” jigsaw puzzle is the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Far too many are presenting it as a nice, simple, 2-d event. What’s worse, some of those so doing are setting policy, and 2-d policy rarely works in what truly is almost an ♾-1 environment. As for others, well, social media is full of them.

Within this puzzle reside quite a few others. In fact, the actual number of puzzles/dimensions is a bit staggering, so I’m going to try to simplify it without over-simplifying it.

Lots to chew on in this one.

THE COUNTRY IS IN THE VERY BEST OF HANDS:

Message: They don’t care.

RAIDER DEVELOPMENT HAS PROGRESSED SURPRISINGLY WELL: The First B-21 Raider Is Being Tested at a Top-Secret Air Force Manufacturing Plant. “The B-21 is set to be revealed to the public later this year. Its first flight has been pushed back from December 2021 to sometime in mid-2022, but that’s a minor setback for such an ambitious program. Currently, there are six B-21s in various stages of production at the Air Force’s secret Plant 42 in Antelope Valley, California.”

IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO OVERESTIMATE JOE’S ABILITY TO F*** THINGS UP: U.S. Intelligence Warns of Domestic Threat as Biden Prepares to Sign Iran Nuke Agreement.

I&I/TIPP POLL: 56% Blame Biden’s Afghan Debacle For Ukraine Invasion.

That’s why Biden isn’t enjoying much of the typical “rally around the flag” effect in his approval ratings.

SPENGLER: Reliving the Nightmare of 1914.

Vladimir Putin acted wickedly, and illegally, by invading Ukraine, but also rationally: Russia has an existential interest in keeping NATO away from his border. Russia will no more tolerate American missiles in Kyiv than the United States would tolerate Russian missiles in Cuba.

The United States could have averted a crisis by adhering to the Minsk II framework of local rule for the Russophone provinces of Eastern Ukraine within a sovereign Ukrainian state but chose instead to keep open Ukraine’s option to join NATO. That was rational, but also stupid: It backed Putin into a corner.

There is no excuse for Putin’s action, but there is an explanation that’s similar to one that applied to his forbears of 1914: Putin chose to attack before the West had the opportunity to arm Ukraine with sophisticated weapons that would raise the future cost of military action.

Read the whole thing.

BATTLESWARM BLOG: Russo-Ukrainian War Update. “Always remember that the map is not the territory, and that both sides are working hard to put out propaganda, though the Russians seem to be manifestly incompetent at it.”

That last part might be the biggest surprise to date.

UKRAINE WAR: An (Almost) Complete Collection of Everything We’re Doing Wrong. “The Ukraine War isn’t going well for anybody, but it seems like the country making the biggest mistakes is the biggest country not even fighting there.”

HMM: Russia Is Preparing to Cut Itself Off From the Global Internet. “The documents reveal that the Kremlin is seeking to eradicate reliance on any Western internet services, potentially isolating itself from the rest of the global internet, a move that would send Russia back to the digital dark ages, further crippling its economy and ending the promise that a free and open internet could act as a check on authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin.”

PRIORITIES: Hard at Work Solving Today’s Most Urgent Problems, Congress Passes Anti-Lynching Act.

CHANGE: Credit Suisse Strategist Says We’re Witnessing Birth of a New World Monetary Order. “Former Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department official, and now Credit Suisse (CS) short-term rate strategist, Zoltan Pozsar has written the U.S. is in a commodity crisis that is giving rise to a new world monetary order that will ultimately weaken the current dollar-based system and lead to higher inflation in the West.”

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF: DeSantis Continues His Mastery Over Corrupt Mainstream Media. “On Monday, a reporter was stupid enough to take the thoroughly biased route with DeSantis when questioning him about the bill. Put mildly, it didn’t go well for the reporter.”

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY (RUSSIA EDITION): Kremlin officials ‘privately denounce’ Putin’s ‘clusterf**k invasion’ as officials warn cornered Russian leader could use small NUKES on Ukrainian cities in worst-case scenario with his forces bogged down in snow and -20C freeze on the way.

And:

One very smart contact who knows about such things currently puts the odds of Putin using a tactical nuke at 60%, another contact — just as smart, just as knowledgeable — says “No way.”

Really, nobody knows but Putin and he probably doesn’t even know yet.

INDEED: Sorry Joe, It’s Not ‘Putin’s Price Hike’ on Gas — It’s Yours.

BLOOMBERG: The odds of a Russian default now around 80%. “Russia’s creditors could agree to accept rubles at current exchange rates, but …. that’s a pretty grim fallback option, one that got worse today.”

“JUSTICE”: DOJ Rushes to Obtain Indictment for January 6 Defendant To Cure Illegal Detention Claim. “The magistrate judge commenced the hearing by apologizing to Denney that he had been ‘lost’ by the system. He expressed frustration and outrage that the Department of Justice did not properly notify the court of Denney’s arrival in DC or properly docket the case’s next procedural step, thereby causing Denney to sit in a jail cell for weeks before being seen by a judge in DC. The judge acknowledged that even an hour of unlawful detention was an affront to our constitutional principles.”

TO BE FAIR, STUPID LIES ARE ABOUT ALL THEY HAVE: Florida Democrats Continue the Stupid Lie That Republicans Don’t Want Anyone to Say ‘Gay.’

CRT IS A MYTH AND ALSO COMES FREE WITH YOUR PIZZA: Pizza Hut urges teachers to watch out for racist toddlers.

ALL THE NEWS THAT FITS THE NARRATIVE: The People’s Convoy Makes Its Mark Despite Media Blackout.

CALIFORNIA: State Agency Conducted ‘Mask Raids,’ Interviewed Preschoolers Alone. “Regulators questioned the Rosados’ son as part of an investigation into masking practices at Aspen Leaf Preschool, which operates three locations in San Diego. All three locations were simultaneously ‘raided,’ as some parents have called it, in mid-January. Regulators separated the children and toddlers from familiar adults at each of the centers to ask questions about the preschools’ masking policies.”

Plus: “What’s strange about that decision, parents and teachers say, is that Aspen Leaf officials had already been open with parents and regulators about their decision to not mask children.”

Were the raids really so strange?

THE PROCESS IS THE PUNISHMENT: Loudoun County School District Called CPS on Dad for Asking Questions About Bad Teachers.

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY (RUSSIA EDITION):

Invading neighbors, empty store shelves… it certainly looks like the Communists are back in charge.

VODKAPUNDIT PRESENTS YOUR WEEKLY INSANITY WRAP: Secret Iran Deal Invaded by Russia… Biden Surrenders. “Welcome to Insanity Wrap, your weekly dose of the best of the worst. Joe Biden letting Russia negotiate his end of the Iran Deal is the new big crazy.”

Plus:

• God is “non-binary, queer, and autistic,” apparently
• Video: That time Senator Biden told Russia “good luck” getting closer to China
• Republican Senator wants to raise your taxes and give you “free stuff”

So much more at the link, you’d have to be crazy to miss it.

VIDEO: Can Ukraine Actually Win?

Once again, Battleswarm Blog has the highlights if you don’t want to watch the entire video.

My big takeaway is that it isn’t so much that Ukraine has a chance to win, but that Russia just might lose.