Author Archive: Stephen Green

COLORADO: Democrats move to make housing more expensive. “This year’s edition, House Bill 22-1362 involves forcing local governments to adopt expensive ‘green’ housing codes, significantly raising the cost of new houses, especially new single-family housing. This will be fine for the laptop class who can afford the extra costs right now, but it will drive the dream of home-ownership over the horizon for many more.”

COLORADO: Judge rules Lamborn challenger Dave Williams can’t appear on primary ballot with anti-Biden nickname. “The Colorado Springs state lawmaker, one of three Republicans challenging eight-term U.S. Rep. Doug Lamborn in Colorado’s June primary, sued earlier this month to force election officials to list his name as ‘Dave ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ Williams’ on ballots, arguing that the phrase is his nickname. But Denver District Court Judge Andrew McCallin said Secretary of State Jena Griswold properly exercised her authority to refuse.”

HMM: What the Hell Is Going On in Russia? “There’s a lot of stuff getting blown up in Russia, and it might not just be the Ukrainians blowing it up.”

SCIENCE! Believe in Science? Bad Big-Data Studies May Shake Your Faith.

Today, the problem is not the scarcity of data, but the opposite. We have too much data, and it is undermining the credibility of science.

Luck is inherent in random trials. In a medical study, some patients may be healthier. In an agricultural study, some soil may be more fertile. In an educational study, some students may be more motivated. Researchers consequently calculate the probability (the p-value) that the outcomes might happen by chance. A low p-value indicates that the results cannot easily be attributed to the luck of the draw.

How low? In the 1920s, the great British statistician Ronald Fisher said that he considered p-values below 5% to be persuasive and, so, 5% became the hurdle for the “statistically significant” certification needed for publication, funding and fame.

It is not a difficult hurdle. Suppose that a hapless researcher calculates the correlations among hundreds of variables, blissfully unawarethat the data are all, in fact, random numbers. On average, one out of 20 correlations will be statistically significant, even though every correlation is nothing more than coincidence.

Real researchers don’t correlate random numbers but, all too often, they correlate what are essentially randomly chosen variables. This haphazard search for statistical significance even has a name: data mining. As with random numbers, the correlation between randomly chosen, unrelated variables has a 5% chance of being fortuitously statistically significant. Data mining can be augmented by manipulating, pruning and otherwise torturing the data to get low p-values.

Science still works. It’s just a shame so few “scientists” practice it.

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Matt Margolis: Trump Judges Are Doing Their Jobs, and Axios Is Triggered. “Other judges are making their mark too, and the liberal media is up in arms about it. And Axios seems to think these judges are simply showing off to ‘audition’ for the Supreme Court.”

Rick Moran: Tit-for-Tat-for … BOOM! “Russia has decided to cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria — two NATO countries on the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Putin is trying to drive a wedge into NATO’s weak flank by starving the two countries of fuel.”

Yours Truly: Ron DeSantis Has the Best New Video for the Best New Yard Sign. “DeSantis has had a busy year, tending to his wife Casey’s cancer recovery, helping lead the way out of COVID madness, taunting Democrats, taming Disney’s wokesters, and preventing Christina Pushaw from taking over the world the way she’s taken over my heart… you know, the usual.”

OURS, TOO: The Left Has Created Their Own Misery.

Everything is awful and it’s just getting worse. The progressive left created this misery for all of us, all by themselves.

They used a combination of the legal system, social media censorship and mainstream media bias (and maybe even more sinister means) to wrestle the 2020 election into submission. They gave us a President no one really wanted, one who wasn’t ready for “that 3a.m. call” and in fact was barely lucid most of his campaign. America did not want Joe Biden, and the chaos you’re seeing now is the manifestation of the collective consciousness of 325 million Americans who have the sinking feeling that something’s not right.

Progressives got cocky after January of 2020. They and their Democrat overlords genuinely believed that they could permanently squash all opposition and end the Republican Party and conservatives forever. It is an astounding ignorance, given that this country is and pretty much always has been split right down the middle politically speaking. Politics are cyclical, which has been a saving grace of American governance. We are currently looking at what happens when one side believes the cycle is over.

No one likes it.

Kira Davis, so read the whole thing.

HMM: Apple was a key reason Google and Snap had a terrible quarter, and it suggests Facebook’s troubles are far from over.

Google-owner Alphabet and Snapchat-parent Snap posted lackluster first-quarter results as the effect of a privacy change from Apple continues to squeeze big tech — signs that Meta is set to suffer a similar fate.

Analysts also expect the privacy change to have dragged down on Facebook and Instagram-owner Meta’s first-quarter ad sales. Meta is due to post its earnings after markets close on Wednesday. Twitter, also affected by the update, is set to report earnings on April 28.

By one count, Apple’s privacy changes are expected to dent Meta, Google’s YouTube, Snap, and Twitter’s revenue by almost $16 billion in total this year, according to analysis from data management company Lotame, which was shared exclusively with Insider earlier this month.

Introduced in April 2021 and known as App Tracking Transparency, Apple’s update forced app developers to ask permission from users before being able to track them across other apps and websites. With the majority of users opting not to be tracked, tech platforms and advertisers have less visibility over the exact audiences they are targeting and whether their ad campaigns are working.

I don’t care much for Tim Cook, but App Tracking Transparency is putting the screws to all the right data hoovers.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Looks Like We’ll All Be Biden Broke Soon. “It’s the age-old, classic tale of just how wrong things can go when the government tries to ‘help.’ There is no shortage of historical evidence regarding exactly what can go wrong, yet politicians — especially those on the left — usually ignore it all and wreck things for the long term in order to win a popularity contest in the short term.”

BECAUSE OF COURSE: Evan McMullin comes out for gun control. “McMullin thinks he can defeat Lee in Utah, which I suppose is theoretically possible. However, he’s taking on some odd positions if he wants to win there.”