Author Archive: Glenn Reynolds

ONE DOESN’T GO TO THE NEW REPUBLIC FOR ACCURATE GUN INFORMATION: Anti-Gun Writer’s Ideas Trip Over Themselves. “A recent article at New Republic shows us that not only are anti-gun arguments rarely fact-based, but that it’s hard to hide the truth: that they want to ban all guns. . . . At this point, we’ve gone from an argument against a weapon used in the shooting to a weapon not used, which is silly, but more importantly the writer has now tipped his hand while fumbling his arguments.”

THE MISSING MAN: Day two of the coup: where is the President?

Let us reflect for a moment on the exceeding strangeness, the un-normalcy, of all this. It is extremely strange for a President of the United States to end his reelection candidacy — and therefore to de facto end his Presidency — with a mere memorandum posted on social media. It is extremely strange for that President to issue a followup social-media post designating a successor, who immediately sets in motion the process of amassing the funds and power previously accrued to her predecessor. It is extremely strange for the President’s calendar to be concurrently cleared, including the cancellation of meetings with foreign leaders who are traveling to the United States specifically to meet with the President.

It is extremely strange for all this to happen without a single personal appearance, without even a video, without even a recording of his voice, without even a photograph, in an era where producing and sharing those things has never been easier.

There are many strange things afoot, it seems.

21ST CENTURY RELATIONSHIPS: Why Americans Aren’t Having Babies: The costs and rising expectations of parenthood are making young people think hard about having any children at all.

Americans aren’t just waiting longer to have kids and having fewer once they start—they’re less likely to have any at all.

The shift means that childlessness may be emerging as the main driver of the country’s record-low birthrate.

Women without children, rather than those having fewer, are responsible for most of the decline in average births among 35- to 44-year-olds during their lifetimes so far, according to an analysis of the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey data by University of Texas demographer Dean Spears for The Wall Street Journal. Childlessness accounted for over two-thirds of the 6.5% drop in average births between 2012 to 2022.

While more people are becoming parents later in life, 80% of the babies born in 2022 were to women under 35, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Vital Statistics data.

“Some may still have children, but whether it’ll be enough to compensate for the delays that are driving down fertility overall seems unlikely,” says Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

The change is far-reaching. More women in the 35-to-44 age range across all races, income levels, employment statuses, regions and broad education groups aren’t having children, according to research by Luke Pardue at nonprofit policy forum the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.

Birthrates among 35- to 44-year-olds give demographers who study fertility an early look into millennials’ changing approach to parenthood. But these researchers also look closely at women over 40, reasoning that if a woman doesn’t have a child by then, she is more likely to remain childless.

The number of American women over 40 who had no children was declining until 2018, according to Current Population Survey data, when it then began to rise again. Now, some demographers and economists expect the increase in childlessness will be sustained due to shifts in how people think about families.

In New Orleans, 42-year-old Beth Davis epitomizes some millennials’ new views. “I wouldn’t mess up the dynamic in my life right now for anything, especially someone that is 100% dependent on me,” she says. . . .

Throughout history, having children was widely accepted as a central goal of adulthood.

Yet when Pew Research Center surveyed 18- to 34-year-olds last year, a little over half said they would like to become parents one day. In a separate 2021 survey, Pew found 44% of childless adults ages 18 to 49 said they were not too likely, or not at all likely, to have children, up from 37% who said the same thing in 2018.

As more women gained access to birth control and entered the workforce in the 1970s, reshaping family life and expectations around gender, Americans began having fewer kids. By 1980, the average number of children per family was 1.8, down from a high of 3.6 during the post-Depression baby boom, according to Gallup.

Now, researchers say, having children at all has begun to feel optional.

Yep. Related: Harrison Butker, Harbinger?

MARK JUDGE: Are Republicans ready for Kamala Harris, the queen of opposition research? “At some point in the next 100 days, something awful and potentially career-ending is going to come out about Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), former President Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick. It might involve a sexual scandal. The accusations will not be true, but that won’t matter.”

I DON’T WANT TO LIVE IN A LARRY CORREIA NOVEL:

Related:

SAY, where’s Joe Biden? In Rehoboth, still under the impression he’s running for a second term. Nobody’s told him he withdrew . . .

Hey, these days it’s totally believable.

Plus, a friend writes: “One note on the rhetoric here: there is tremendous pushback online from the left and Bulwark types — but I repeat myself — against the use of ‘coup d’état’ to describe events. This is a tell, and ought to signal that we should use it often. We should use it because it implies a series of things they wish to avoid, the top two being that the plotters ought to face public accountability, and the President unfit to run is therefore unfit to remain in office. And there is one other reason to use it: because it is true.”

UPDATE:

THE JOKES KEEP COMING, EVEN THOUGH IT’S NOT REALLY FUNNY:

FUN: Trump Demands Reparations Over Biden Dropping Out. “The GOP in general and specifically the Trump campaign have flushed countless millions of dollars into campaigning against Joe Biden, who continued to insist that he would be running for a second term. After he finally announced yesterday that he would be leaving the race, the entire picture changed. This led Donald Trump to take to his Truth Social media platform and posit a question. Should the GOP seek reimbursement for fraud after spending all of that money focusing on someone who clearly was not going to be serving a second term?”

WHEN WILL THE PRESS TELL US THAT DEMOCRATS “ASSERT, WITHOUT EVIDENCE” THAT BIDEN HAS WITHDRAWN? “So, yeah, what evidence do we have that Joe Biden knows he has given up his candidacy and released the delegates pledged to him? We haven’t seen him. He’s been sick with Covid. When last we heard from him in person he was defiantly clinging to the candidacy, apparently still believing that he is the one person who can save the world from Donald Trump. We were simply handed written statements.”

Plus: “Perhaps his people won’t tell him he has withdrawn. How would we know? I’ve read articles about caregivers for persons with dementia that advise us to go along with the errors and not correct all the mistaken beliefs. He shouldn’t be President though, of course, if things are this bad. Couldn’t they keep him in Rehoboth and call him Mr. President?”