EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY FOR VLAD: Russian ruble plunges nearly 30% against the dollar amid sanctions over Ukraine invasion.

But beware: Sanctions Expert Warns of Global Economic Instability From Sanctions. “The unprecedented intensity and breadth of Western sanctions on Russia raise concerns about the overall effect on the global economy and the potential for escalation by Russia, a U.S. sanctions expert said. . . . The U.S. and its allies have banned trading in the debt of the Russia’s government and some its largest banks, prohibited sale of key technologies, and cut off its largest banks from the international bank messaging service Swift while allowing provisions for energy-related transactions to continue. They also took the rare step of sanctioning some transactions with the Central Bank of Russia. That will impair the central bank’s ability to defend the Russian currency, the ruble, which has fallen sharply since the invasion began. Europe has also banned Russian private and commercial airlines from its airspace. The weekend developments have already caused the ruble to plunge and U.S. stock-market futures to decline.”

NIALL FERGUSON: First Biden betrayed the Afghans. Now he’s thrown Ukraine to the wolves.

A FORMER STUDENT SENDS THIS:

@thewellnesstherapist I'm sorry but there's no hope of ever being able to occupy a country full of people who just pick up mines and move them while a lit Marlboro dangles from their lips. #ukraine #russia ♬ original sound – Azadeh G

My response: That looks like an anti-vehicle mine and those are designed not to go off unless there’s a heavy weight on them. Don’t they teach you kids anything in school nowadays?

WELL: More than 150 senior Russian officials sign open letter condemning Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as ‘an unprecedented atrocity’ and warn of ‘catastrophic consequences’ while urging citizens ‘not to participate.’ “The deputies said they were ‘convinced’ Russian citizens do not back the war and blamed Putin ‘personally’ for ordering troops into Ukraine in an attack ‘for which there is no and cannot be justification’. . . . It was a surprising step for Russian officials to speak out against Putin, who usually holds an iron grip on dissent and last week televised a meeting with Moscow’s top security chiefs in which they appeared to be railroaded into backing his plans to invade Ukraine.”

For this to happen at all is an indication that Putin is seen as weak.

I CERTAINLY HOPE NOT: Will ‘woke’ survive the war? “Even as rockets rained down on Ukraine, Western elites worried about how the war would affect LGBTQ people, as if Putin might have developed queer-seeking missiles. Others voiced concern that grandparents huddled in bomb shelters beneath the pockmarked streets of Kiev might not be social distancing. The New York Times lamented that few of the Ukrainians fleeing for their lives were wearing masks. . . . Meanwhile, former US Secretary of State John Kerry expressed dismay at what he called the ‘emissions consequences’ of war in Europe.”

It’s hard to kill stupid.

THE SCIENCE HAS CHANGED:

THERE SEEMS TO BE AMAZING WORLDWIDE UNITY ON THIS: Australia to send lethal weapons to Ukraine. “Australia will provide lethal military equipment to Ukraine to help the Ukrainians resist the Russian invasion. The Australian government’s announcement Monday gave no details on what material it may be sending. The move follows an offer on Friday of non-lethal military equipment, medical supplies and a $3 million contribution to a NATO trust fund for support of the besieged country.”

Meanwhile, what countries are stepping forward in support of Putin? Even China is distancing itself.

UPDATE: A friend, an actual first-generation Australian-American, texts: “Now all my ancestral island needs to do is stop going Putin on its own people.” Yeah, I can’t help but feel that some of the enthusiasm for this among the West’s ruling class is based on the hope that it will distract their own citizens from the actions of the past two years.

Also: The Russians Have Paused the Invasion But Aren’t Losing. I dunno, I’m inclined to think that in these circumstances, if you’re not winning, you’re losing, especially as opposition solidifies worldwide. But what do I know? I’m just a simple law professor with a personal website.

And I like this T-shirt.

MORE: Texting with a friend I commented: “I’m pro-Ukraine, but I get nervous when the establishment agrees with me.”

He replies: “I’m just liking Ukraine pantsing Russia for all the reasons you’ve mentioned. Makes China think twice. Underscores the value of an armed citizenry. Makes Putin look like a fool.”

All good things. But if the establishment is this happy, should I be? Maybe.

OPEN THREAD: Hurry boys it’s waiting there for you.

SPACE: SpaceX makes its case for space sustainability with latest Starlink launch.

WHEN RULERS FEAR THE CITIZENS, IT IS NOT A REPUBLIC: Terrifying truck drivers result in fences going back up on Capitol Hill.

Flashback: Biden’s militarized inauguration showcased Democrats’ insecurity.

Nothing says, “This was a perfectly normal election, and now it’s time to come together as a united nation,” like having your swearing-in behind 12-foot-high razor wire surrounded by 25,000 troops whose loyalty you doubt. That’s what we witnessed at President Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday: a grim testament to the fundamental insecurity and fragility of the re-ascendant liberal elite.

Democrats no doubt hoped that the optics of this military-heavy presidential installation would convince ordinary Americans that the republic is in peril from the populist ferment that sent Donald Trump to the White House in 2016 and garnered more votes four years later than any GOP ticket, ever. It’s a peril that can only be addressed by, in James Comey’s lovely phrase, “burning down” the Republican Party.

But the whole aura was less Lincoln and more bananas. As in banana republic.

Still true.

IT LOOKS ALIVE: Curiosity Rover Snapped This Photo of a Tiny And Delicate Mineral ‘Flower’ on Mars.

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY FOR VLAD: Russian forces have yet to capture a city in Ukraine, U.S. defense official says.

Related: Danish PM says volunteers can join Ukraine fight.

I can’t find anything linkable yet, but I’m told the French Foreign Legion is allowing its Ukrainian members (of whom there are quite a few) to take “home leave.” They’re solid, well-trained soldiers who will make useful cadre for the less-trained Ukrainian militias.

The European nations, with no one to look to but Slow Joe, are actually standing up to Russia on their own.

The trick will be figuring out a way to let Putin back down. In Sun Tzu’s words, “Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.”

Meanwhile, you’ve got to figure that any Chinese generals who’ve issued optimistic forecasts for how an invasion of Taiwan would go are rethinking. My own sense is that if China takes Taiwan it will be via subversion, not outright force. But this definitely underscores that.

Meanwhile, Putin (and the Chinese), after spending a decade trying to divide the West and seeing Covid exacerbate those divisions to an enormous degree, are now seeing the West come together. That can’t be encouraging for them.

UPDATE: Ukraine National Guard Shares Video of Fighters Greasing Bullets In Pig Fat for Chechen ‘Orcs.’ Putin’s plan was to terrify the Ukrainians out of any thoughts of resistance through fear of the fierce Chechens. It doesn’t appear to have worked out as planned, which seems to be par for the course so far this week.

Related: From Berlin streets to Sydney, global outpouring of support for Ukraine.

Also: Russia’s Ukraine attack forces Beijing into diplomatic dance.

It’s worth noting just how quickly the leadership of the West acted here. I suspect some of this is so that they have a golden road to retreat from the Covid nonsense, and a way to distract the citizenry from what was done to them, including the greatest transfer of wealth and political power in human history. Some of it is also based on historical memory that appeasing dictators who invade eastern European countries hasn’t worked out well in the past. And in Europe, some of it is people who saw the EU project in danger of collapse finding an opportunity to shore it up via a common enemy.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Via the comments to this post:

Also: EU Member Countries in Talks to Supply Ukraine With Jet Fighters.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has asked the European Union for jet fighter jets some EU countries plan to supply them, EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday.

A person familiar with the talks later said that discussions are still ongoing. The person said any planes would be supplied directly by EU member states and not funded through an arrangement announced earlier for the EU to finance weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Mr. Borrell said that Mr. Kuleba had requested planes that Ukrainian Air Force pilots can fly. Ukraine’s jet fighters are Soviet-built MiG and Sukhoi models.

Some current EU members that were once part of the USSR-led Warsaw Pact still fly such planes or have old ones parked.

Plus: Sweden to Send Military Aid to Ukraine – PM Andersson.. “Sweden is now proposing direct support for Ukraine’s armed forces. It includes 135,000 field rations, 5,000 helmets, 5,000 body shields and 5,000 anti-tank weapons.”

MORE: From tonight’s Open Thread:

I suspect the Russian police are more likely to feel guilty than the Canadians did.

STILL MORE: Logistical, Strategic And Tactical Analysis Of The Russian War Against Ukraine. “At the moment, Ukraine probably controls the information war. That’s the way of things, and you may want to take that into consideration in your own assessments.”

Plus: “As best as can be determined, Putin’s original goal was to drive in heavy armor, rush to Kiev, surround the capital city, and then drop paratroopers in to kill or arrest Zelenskyy and his government. Then install a puppet regime, and leave (or leave some contingency of troops behind for stability operations). This seems to comport with the actions we’ve witnessed thus far. But Kiev wasn’t really surrounded and incapable of self-defense, and Russia didn’t control the battle space. The most amazing thing about this plan is the ability of the generals to sell Putin on the idea.”

MORE DOSES OF THE SAME VACCINE WHILE A VIRUS CONTINUES TO MUTATE SEEMS LIKE A BAD APPROACH ANYWAY: Fourth dose of COVID vaccine may not be needed for most people… yet.

BIDEN VOTERS POSTING THEIR L’S ONLINE: Elite investors have formed a quiet consensus: 2022 is going to be very, very ugly for the stock market.

THE ENTIRE APPARAT IS PIVOTING FOR THE MIDTERMS NOW: SNL to Liberals: It’s OK To Question Nonsensical Mask Mandates.

LISTEN, SUG: DON’T FORGET TO SAY YOUR PRAYERS — AND WEAR A MASK.

Here’s a link to the referenced document if you want to see it for yourself.

Flashback: The Unexpected Return of Duck and Cover.

(Classical allusion in headline.)

COLOR ME SKEPTICAL: New studies bolster theory that COVID-19 came from Wuhan market.

CLAUDIA ROSETT: Why Did Russia’s UN Ambassador Mention a ‘Dirty Bomb?’

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been giving the world a crash course in Kremlin techniques of propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, and misdirection — for anyone not already well aware. We have heard plenty about this in recent weeks, not least from the Biden administration, which has been declassifying and releasing to the press information on what they’ve called Russia’s playbook.

A big feature of this playbook is projection: in this case the process of displacing onto someone or something else what Russia itself is actually planning, or doing. We saw this in spades during Putin’s runup to the invasion of Ukraine, as he mustered his strike force along Ukraine’s land borders and coastline. Russia accused Ukraine and NATO of threatening its security, broadcasting a narrative that at the extreme suggested Russia was in danger of an invasion from Ukraine, or NATO. The opposite was true: It was Russia threatening and preparing to invade Ukraine, threatening NATO, and staging provocations.

Russia’s narrative was patently ridiculous, but for Putin such things have their uses — for domestic propaganda, for muddying the waters, for distracting the debate from the realities, and for laying the groundwork for Russia’s staged provocations. In this case, Russia stirs up trouble and blames it on Ukraine, as Russia has been doing for years in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

In that vein, there’s an item that caught my attention last Friday, near the end of a United Nations Security Council emergency meeting on Ukraine. I mention it here not because I have any further information on this score. I stress that this is solely a heads up, in light of Russia’s record of projection and staged provocations.

The setting was the UN Security Council chamber, Friday evening, Feb. 25 — two days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has the rotating presidency of the Security Council for the month of February, and Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, was presiding. He described Russia’s invasion as a justified humanitarian intervention, saying Russia was not bombing cities or targeting civilians.

In addition to dirty bombs, there’s this sci-fi scenario: Russian space chief threatens International Space Station over sanctions. “After President Biden announced Thursday that the U.S. would sanction major Russian banks and impose export controls on Russia to curtail high-tech imports, Roscosmos Director General Dmitry Rogozin tweeted that the ISS’s current location is under Russian control. ‘If you block cooperation with us, who will save the International Space Station (ISS) from an uncontrolled deorbit and fall into the United States or…Europe?’ Rogozin said in one of his tweets. ‘There is also the possibility of a 500-ton structure falling on India and China. Do you want to threaten them with such a prospect? The ISS does not fly over Russia, therefore all the risks are yours. Are you ready for them?’ Currently, there are four NASA astronauts, two Russian cosmonauts and one European astronaut onboard the outpost, according to CNN.”

A FRIEND REFERS TO THESE AS “AUTHENTICATED BY THE NYT,” WHICH DOESN’T NECESSARILY INSPIRE CONFIDENCE. BUT: Videos show Russian losses on outskirts of Kyiv.

After intense street battles on Sunday, footage verified by The Times showed the charred remains of Russian military vehicles on the outskirts of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

Other videos show Russian vehicles driving through the small city of Bucha, surrounded by sounds of heavy fighting, and Russian troops firing at an Afghanistan War memorial of a military vehicle — which they seem to have mistaken for Ukrainian forces.

It seems clear that things aren’t going according to Putin’s plan, which apparently anticipated a super-fast coup de main. He may still grind his way to something he can call victory, but it may be Pyrrhic.

DON’T UNDERESTIMATE JOE’S ABILITY TO F*** THINGS UP: Biden says he hopes his legacy ‘is that I restored the soul of this country.’

In a wide-ranging interview with progressive political host Brian Tyler Cohen, Biden said that he hoped he would be remembered for restoring “some decency and honor to the office” of the presidency, rebuilding America’s middle class and repairing partnerships with other countries.

“I hope my legacy is that I was able to restore some decency and honor to the office; I was able to bring the middle class back to a place where they had real opportunity*, given an even chance to succeed; and I was able to reconstruct our alliances**, which had been frayed so badly, internationally, and that I was able to bring people together,” Biden said during the interview. “Bring the politics of America together.”***

“And I think we’re making slow progress,” he added.

Biden has continued to suffer low approval ratings in his first year in office, including on his handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll released on Friday found that only a third of Americans approved of Biden’s handling on the conflict, in comparison with 47 percent who disapproved and 20 percent who had no opinion.

* Having the country effectively locked down at the start of your administration is certainly a great way to pad your stats.

** Showing weakness in the face of the Taliban, which led to Putin deciding to roll the dice with World War III helps in that department.

*** Flashback: White House Christmas message to unvaccinated: You’re looking at a winter of death for yourselves and your families:

UPDATE: Stealth Hunter: Biden’s tangled business dealings are becoming hard to ignore. Influence-peddling is Washington’s ‘spectator sport’ – but now there’s an interest in taking a closer look at the president’s son.

THINGS CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE NARRATIVE’S NEEDS: The New York Times’ Strange New Respect for Citizens Owning and Carrying ‘Assault Weapons.’

WELL, LIKE A LOT OF THINGS UNDER BIDEN, IT’S SUCCUMBED TO SHRINKFLATION: Watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shakes my own understanding of American power.

AND YET PEOPLE ARGUE ENDLESSLY ABOUT CALIBER: Why Bullet Placement Matters. A better caliber basically just gives you a bit more leeway.

TRYING TO SPREAD FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, AND DOUBT: Why Did Russia’s UN Ambassador Mention a ‘Dirty Bomb’?

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY FOR VLAD: Russia central bank urges calm amid cash run fears.

Related: Ukraine conflict: Liz Truss backs people from UK who want to fight. “Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said she supports individuals from the UK who might want to go to Ukraine to join an international force to fight.”

Also: Elon Musk Praised For Coming To Ukraine’s Rescue: ‘Pushes A Button And Changes The Course Of History.’ “Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk was praised on Saturday for responding to the Ukrainian government’s plea to provide SpaceX’s Starlink satellite broadband service so that Ukrainians could access the internet as Russian military forces invaded the country.”

I’m hearing, BTW, (usual caveats apply) that the NATO countries are sharing real-time intelligence with the Ukrainians, which is making it much more difficult for the Russians to seize the initiative. And, of course, it’s not like their attack was a surprise to begin with. In fact, the Ukrainians have basically been preparing for it for 8 years.