Archive for 2025

June 22, 2025

DANIELLE PLETKA: #WTH Iran won’t give up its nukes.

So, what happens now? If the Iranians were as smart as I suggested at the outset, they would cry uncle and agree to inspections, relinquishing enrichment (for the moment), accepting a regional nuclear agreement, and more. They would understand that the world’s focus will inevitably falter, and that then, they could safely return to status quo ante. Instead, however, they are trapped in their ideological mire, and cannot accept the need to bend the knee to Washington, and by extension — at least in their minds — to Israel.

Perhaps the regime will fall, though it seems a slim likelihood. Perhaps Ayatollah Khamenei will crawl out from his bunker and beg for peace. Ditto. More likely, Iran will seek to reconstitute that which it lost over the last 21 months — its proxies, its allies, its weapons, and its pride. This is the worst possible choice for Tehran, and dooms the Iranian people to yet another cycle of violence down the road.

But for the moment, we can thank America’s incredible armed forces and its commander-in-chief that the danger of a fanatical regime armed with nuclear weapons has receded.

Related: “The big question now is whether Iran’s nuke program just went back a few years, or if it’s been totally erased:” 

Posted at 2:14 pm by Ed Driscoll on Jun 22nd, 2025

JOSH BLACKMAN: Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Gorsuch Walk Back Bostock. “A lot can happen in five years. June 2020, or Blue June as I called it, was one of the most depressing periods in recent Supreme Court history. After Justice Kennedy retired, Chief Justice Roberts became the new swing vote, and swung to the left in nearly every case. Perhaps the most confounding decision was Bostock. Justice Gorsuch, joined by Chief Justice Roberts, ruled that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 all along prohibited discrimination against gays, lesbians, and transgender people. The decision was profoundly wrong. Yet, I think Bostock can be understood, at least in part, as a reflection of the zeitgeist. June 2020 was close to peak woke.”

Out: The Supreme Court follows the election returns. In: The Supreme Court follows the zeitgeist.

Posted at 2:00 pm by Glenn Reynolds on Jun 22nd, 2025

HMMMM:

Posted at 1:45 pm by Ed Driscoll on Jun 22nd, 2025

REALITY CHECK:

The whole text:

1. Real-Time Monitoring by the IAEA:
Both Fordow and Natanz are under partial surveillance by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While Iran has restricted access in recent years, many of the monitoring systems – especially CCTV cameras – were active in the past and still provided some insight until at least early 2023. In several cases, the IAEA retained knowledge of infrastructure layouts and could remotely detect large-scale activity, especially if dismantling or evacuation were attempted.

2. The Myth of Rapid Evacuation:
This isn’t a warehouse full of sacks of potatoes. We’re talking about highly specialized, sensitive equipment, thousands of IR-1 and advanced IR-2m and IR-6 centrifuges. For context:
•Natanz had an estimated 15,000–20,000 centrifuges at peak capacity. Even after the JCPOA, thousands remained in use or storage.
•Fordow, while smaller, housed over 1,000 advanced centrifuges, some enriching uranium up to 60% purity in recent years.

These are not items that can be boxed up and trucked out overnight. Dismantling a single cascade (a chain of 164 centrifuges) safely requires days of work, if not longer. Multiply that by hundreds of cascades, and you quickly realize this isn’t a quick getaway.

Additionally, centrifuges are connected to high-pressure uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) lines. Improper disassembly can lead to contamination, equipment damage, or worse, leaks of radioactive gas. Such evacuations would require weeks of preparation under controlled conditions.

3. Eyes in the Sky and on the Ground:
Let’s not forget that the U.S. and Israel have had persistent, layered surveillance over these sites for years, satellites, high-altitude drones, SIGINT, HUMINT. Every inch of ground around Fordow and Natanz has been watched for telltale signs of activity. The idea that Iran stealthily evacuated multiple facilities without being detected is simply ludicrous.

4. Propaganda to Salvage Prestige:
This entire narrative is damage control, plain and simple. The regime knows its core scientific and strategic assets were hit. They can’t admit it, so they spin: “We were too smart for them. Nothing of value was lost.” But it’s hollow bravado, masking what is in reality a colossal strategic failure – yet another one – in a long line of catastrophic blunders by a leadership that has brought nothing but ruin to a once-proud civilization.

Posted at 1:26 pm by Charlie Martin on Jun 22nd, 2025

STACY MCCAIN: How Trump Ruined the Media’s Weekend.

Oh, sure, it was a bad Saturday for the Ayatollah, but try to imagine what it was like for the news media. Suppose you’re the lead national security reporter for the Washington Post or the New York Times. It’s a Saturday in June, so maybe you’re out at the beach for the weekend, having a nice seafood dinner with friends at some beachside bistro on the Maryland shore. You’re probably on your third glass of wine when, shortly before 8 p.m., your phone explodes with messages from your editors.

“HOLY FUCKING SHIT! THAT SON OF A BITCH!”

Which is how reporters talk, by the way, especially when they find out on a Saturday night that they’ve got barely an hour to write the lead for a front-page story in the Sunday paper, and the only information they’ve got is a Truth Social message from Donald Trump. Bwa-hahahahaha!

David Frum must not be feeling too happy this morning:

Two more people not having a good Sunday:

UPDATE:

Posted at 1:14 pm by Ed Driscoll on Jun 22nd, 2025

THE TRANSGENDER FILES:  Maybe soon we’ll start to see all the crazy lies the country has been fed for the last decade.

Posted at 12:59 pm by Gail Heriot on Jun 22nd, 2025

ROGER SIMON: Yes, Iranians Can Throw Off the Mullahs.

Evil as Xi and Putin may be, they are at least, to us, somewhat rational actors. Not so the mullahs. They follow a bizarre messianic eschatology—”Twelver” Shia Islam—through which they wish (or wished) to take over the entire world. At least some of them do. Others may be playing along for profit. But whatever the case, that is who is putatively in charge.

In all, it’s a kind of religious insanity.

As is generally known, they exercise power with incredible brutality, especially toward women, with levels of misogyny that are horrifying to read about, let alone witness or experience.

I have spoken with victims of this misogyny—rape is almost the least of it—and wonder what American women like AOC and Whoopi Goldberg are thinking when they make their moronic pronouncements. Nothing much, I’m afraid, except about themselves.

But more interesting in this situation is what the Iranian people themselves will do.

Read the whole thing.

Posted at 12:45 pm by Ed Driscoll on Jun 22nd, 2025

THESE ARE THE CRAZY YEARS. SO CRAZY STUFF HAPPENS A LOT.

Posted at 7:31 am by Glenn Reynolds on Jun 22nd, 2025

KURT SCHLICHTER EXPLAINS THINGS TO THE OBTUSE:

Posted at 7:30 am by Glenn Reynolds on Jun 22nd, 2025
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