Author Archive: Stephen Green

DAVID AXELROD: Biden Is The Nominee Of The Democratic Party, ‘This Isn’t The 60s.’

UPDATE: A friend comments:

Democrats simply did not accept the result of November 2016. Since then, every piece of their power has been leveraged for short-term political gain through elections in 2018, 20, and 22, and they have incredibly sustained their political power at the cost of discrediting the lion’s share of the institutions they control and upon which the nation once depended.

Until 15 hours ago, those institutions were still gaslighting us that Joe Biden was in tip-top shape.

Now even the densest people know they lied.

THE NEW SPACE RACE: Russian spy satellite reportedly continues suspicious maneuvers.

Slingshot reports that the satellite, which has been in orbit for just over a year, has been positioning itself near several communications satellites in what appears to be an ongoing signals intelligence-gathering mission.

Luch 2’s latest move, flagged by Slingshot’s automated tracking system, was a “large maneuver” on June 23 that would indicate that the satellite is moving towards an Intelsat communications satellite.

Audrey Schaffer, Slingshot’s vice president of strategy and policy, said the company “has had eyes on Luch 2 since it was launched in March 2023, and our machine learning algorithms have predicted its next move.”

The company is forecasting that Luch 2’s next object of interest is the Intelsat 1002 communications satellite.

Practice runs for attacking the West’s satellite comms?

We have plenty of rapid-launch capability, thanks to SpaceX. We need to make having plenty of backup birds a priority.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: WOWZA — We Should Know by Sunday Brunch if Joe Biden Is Stepping Down. “The reaction from the leftist talking heads was telling. They knew that they’d just witnessed a bloodbath and didn’t attempt to hide it. There was immediate talk of the Democratic big money people freaking out all through the debate and a discussion about whether Biden would soon be asked to step down as the nominee. It was like a family panic over an aging elder. The family had been in denial for years, then gramps made a scene at Thanksgiving.”

BULLIES: China Massively Increases Fighter Jet Flights Above Taiwan.

According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, there were consecutive double-digit numbers of People Liberation Army aircraft operating around the island in the past week. On Monday, Taiwan said that 23 PLA aircraft and seven PLA ships were detected over the past day.

The number of Chinese planes flying near Taiwan hit double-digits on June 18 and remained at that level into this week. China regularly conducts patrols in the area, but according to one report, the numbers of planes and ships involved are higher than they have been in recent years.

The stepped-up patrols are taking place in the wake of the latest US arms sales to Taiwan. The Biden administration has agreed to sell Taipei Switchblade 300 and ALTIUS 600M-V drones at an estimated cost of $360 million.

In the last few years, China has dramatically stepped up the number of flights violating Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

Previously: “Here is a rather simple fact: inside the procurement system we have – including kludge workarounds like DEPSECDEF Hicks’s ‘Replicator’ – if you believe that the window of greatest vulnerability for war with the People’s Republic of China is 2027 to 2032, which after initial skepticism I have grown to think is correct, then we will go to war with what we have now.”

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $190 billion in federal relief raised achievement — but not very much.

“The per-dollar returns of ESSER, the Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief Fund, measure up poorly in comparison with those of previously studied efforts to boost achievement,” writes Mahnken.

“The impact was small,” said Dan Goldhaber, the lead author of the Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research (CALDER) study. “Only 20% of ESSER money was even earmarked for learning loss, and I don’t think there was a lot of oversight of whether that 20% was well spent.”

The Education Recovery Scorecard, led by Stanford sociologist Sean Reardon and Harvard economist Thomas Kane, found very similar results.

Still better than this: Chicago Doubles Education Spending, Tragedy Ensues.

JACK DUNPHY: When Can a Police Officer Disobey an Order? “I didn’t witness the incident, nor have I spoken with anyone present, so what follows is pure speculation, albeit based on more than 40 years in law enforcement, more than 30 of it with the LAPD. The first thing to keep in mind is that in the LAPD, Sundays are the least busy days of the week and therefore the most lightly staffed. What’s more, the officers who are on duty on Sundays are often the least experienced, this owing to the fact that officers higher in seniority are given preference in selecting days off and that most of them choose to be off on weekends.”

DEBATE PREP SO SIMPLE EVEN JOE BIDEN CAN DO IT… PROBABLY:

Drunkblogging the debate at PJ Media starts at 8:45pm.

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY: US future fighter plans in freefall.

Once touted as the future of US air superiority, the Next Generation Air Dominance program faces a similarly uncertain future as it potentially goes down a cost-death spiral. This month, Defense One reported that the USAF is considering changes to the NGAD program, which aimed to produce a sixth-generation fighter jet. Defense One notes this is due to budget constraints, technological challenges and evolving concepts of air dominance.

The publication mentions that the Air Force chief of staff, General David Allvin, and Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall have hesitated to continue the NGAD program. The program was expected to select a winner between Lockheed Martin and Boeing this year. However, the USAF’s commitment to the program is now in question, with Allvin emphasizing that no final decision has been made.

Defense One notes the potential cancellation of the NGAD and its significant implications for the US defense industry. Delays in Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program and Boeing’s underwhelming defense performance are contributing factors, along with Boeing’s management issues and Lockheed Martin’s lack of incentives for cost-effective execution.

The US forgetting how to design and build cutting-edge aircraft is like the French forgetting how to make wine.

THE NEW SPACE RACE: China to launch first satellites for megaconstellation in August.

The first launch for China’s G60 Starlink megaconstellation of over 12,000 satellites is set for early August.

The first satellites are due to leave the factory in Shanghai for Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in north China in the coming days, according to Shanghai Securities News.

The launch is set for Aug. 5 with the mission expected to carry 18 satellites. The launch vehicle was not stated in reports, but the Long March 6A would be the most capable option from Taiyuan in terms of capacity to low Earth orbit and payload fairing.

The constellation aims to provide global internet access, challenging U.S. projects including Starlink. It is also intended to secure finite orbital slots and frequencies and provide national internet coverage and data security.

Left unasked: without reusable launch vehicles, will G60 turn a profit or just be another cash-sucking state megaproject?

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY (UK EDITION): Britain Spent Millions to Send Migrants to Africa. So Far, Just Two Have Gone.

Two years ago, the British government decided to spend big to outsource a migration problem.

To deter migrants seeking asylum from illegally entering the country, it announced a radical plan: Those smuggled on makeshift dinghies to British shores would be sent to Rwanda, a small country in central Africa, where they would remain. The U.K. government handed Rwanda a £120 million (about $150 million) down payment and told it to get ready to host thousands of potential refugees.

Shortly after, Hope Hostel, a neatly kept yellow-fronted hotel in the Rwandan capital of Kigali, was rented out with British taxpayer funds to accommodate the expected planeloads of asylum seekers. Hotel manager Ismael Bakina and his team of 40 have been keeping busy ever since, changing the sheets on 100 double beds weekly, trimming decorative pot shapes into the bushes that adorn the hotel’s entrance and mowing the lawn on its mini-soccer pitch.

But on a recent day the beds at Hope Hostel were untouched. The suggestion box at the reception desk sat empty. No one has yet come to stay. “We are still waiting,” Bakina said, standing near a sign that reads: “Come as a guest, leave as a friend.”

No one may ever arrive. The U.K. government’s plan—criticized by some as inhumane, praised by others as a pragmatic response to a global migration crisis—has faced logistical, political and legal hurdles. So far, it’s been a huge waste of money. Just two migrants have volunteered to go to Rwanda after being paid £3,000 by the British state.

“Volunteered” is just one of several problems with Britain’s plan.