Author Archive: Stephen Green

TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT MIGHT BE THE ONLY SECURITY AGAINST GETTING BLOWN UP: Trump says he must be involved in picking Iran’s next leader.

President Trump told Axios in an interview Thursday that he needs to be personally involved in selecting Iran’s next leader — just as he was in Venezuela.

Trump revealed this exclusively in an eight-minute phone call — his second conversation with us to explain his war planning.

Why it matters: Trump acknowledged that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of assassinated supreme leader Ali Khamenei, is the most likely successor — while making clear he finds that outcome unacceptable.

For several days, the Iranian regime has postponed the announcement of the new supreme leader. But statements by Iranian politicians on Thursday suggested an announcement could be imminent.

What he’s saying: “They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodriguez] in Venezuela,” Trump said.

He added that he refuses to accept a new Iranian leader who would continue Khamenei’s policies, which he said would force the U.S. back to war “in five years.”

“Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me. We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran,” Trump said.

The big picture: Trump’s comments represent an extraordinary claim of American power over Iran’s political future, further muddying the objectives of the massive U.S. military campaign he launched on Saturday.

Muddying? I do not think that word means what you think it means, Axios.

Previously: Regime Change or Regime Compliance?

COLONIZATION, STRAIGHT UP:

Translation: “Barcelona City Council advises against dancing or playing music in schools during Ramadan.”

BATTLESWARM: Iran Strikes Day 5. “The more the Islamic Republic of Iran lashes out at other countries in the region, the more obvious it is that eliminating the regime and its nuclear ambitions was the right call.”

HMM:

REAL ESTATE: Home sellers are relisting properties at fastest pace in a decade, but spring supply is still low. “The January figures come as Redfin reported a record number of sellers pulling their homes off the market last September. Close to 85,000 sellers delisted, up 28% from September 2024. Higher mortgage rates last year, still-high home prices and growing uncertainty in the economy sidelined buyers last fall, taking sellers out of the driver’s seat, where they had been in the years during and just after the pandemic.”

YES: ‘MAGA civil war’ over Iran is another figment of media’s imagination.

ABC chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl had what he felt was a big scoop at the onset of American and Israeli strikes against Iran.

“I just heard back from Tucker Carlson,” Karl reported. “He’s just one person, [but] a prominent one in Trump’s movement. But this is a momentous and potentially defining or maybe redefining move for President Trump.

“He got into politics, in part, promising to end what he called forever wars. He was harshly critical of the war with Iraq. He claimed that he had always been against it. And now he finds himself starting what could be a major conflict with Iran.”

Was there a MAGA divide over President Donald Trump‘s decision to strike Iran? Were GOP legislators revolting against the commander in chief? If Congress were to vote on a War Powers Resolution, would it not pass, given this alleged divide?

Of course, Karl, who recently served as a White House Correspondents Association president, didn’t reach out to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) or House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), instead opting for Tucker Carlson.

Did you expect better from Jon Karl?

Or from Carlson, for that matter.

HMM:

More:

I started running the numbers on this and it’s lining up too cleanly.

China imports about 11 million barrels of crude per day, with roughly 40-45% of that flowing through the Strait of Hormuz (mainly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran).

Their strategic petroleum reserves are estimated by analysts at around 90-100 days of total consumption at current burn rates of ~14-15 million barrels/day including refined products.

Cut off from Hormuz and they’re staring down the barrel of empty tanks in roughly three months.

That’s not a sustainable position. Their only realistic play would be immediate, heavy domestic rationing, factories slowed, trucking curtailed, civilian fuel limits, the works. That would slam their economy and ripple hard through global supply chains.

Remind me again…

How long does a president have under the War Powers Resolution before he has to go to Congress for an extension on military actions?

Oh, right—90 days.

Nobody seems to think Epic Fury will last as long as 90 days, but nobody really knows, either.

ACTUALLY, PRETTY MUCH EVERYONE KNOWS EXACTLY WHO NEEDS TO HEAR THIS…:

…but the people who do need to hear it seem to be paid to not listen.

BLUE CITY BLUES: Starbucks leaving Seattle? Coffee giant to move corporate jobs to Nashville. “Starbucks will relocate a portion of its Seattle-based corporate workforce as it expands operations to Tennessee. According to the coffee giant, the move will affect roles tied to direct and indirect sourcing operations teams within Starbucks’ supply chain organization. Starbucks claimed that Seattle will remain its North America and Global Support headquarters, but said it will continue evaluating whether additional teams and roles should transition to Nashville over time.”

A REMINDER THAT EZRA KLEIN’S “JOURNOLIST” NEVER DIED; IT JUST MOVED TO SLACK:

Narratives don’t establish themselves, bub.