ESCHEW ALL MODALITIES OF COCKSUREDNESS: The 2026 Midterms Are Looking More Like 1934 Than 1938.
That 1934 midterm election was notable because the momentum from Roosevelt’s historic defeat of GOP President Herbert Hoover in 1932 carried over two years later as FDR and his administration were still in the early throes of combating the effects of the Great Depression.
This momentum kept going through to 1936 when Roosevelt was re-elected for a second term.
Only in 1938, following a new recession and an unpopular court-packing battle, did FDR and the Democrats suffer the historically traditional midterm defeat.
President Trump may now also be on the cusp of avoiding the dreaded “midterm curse.” The reasons for this unusual reversal appear to come from the perception that, despite President Trump’s return to the presidency after being defeated for re-election in 2020 (only the second time in U.S. history a president has won non-consecutive terms), his current administration is bringing about more and quicker change than he did during his first term, which was upended by the global pandemic. The rapid and relatively abrupt change we have seen thus far resembles FDR’s first two years in office.
Of course, it is only conjecture at this point that 2026 will resemble 1934 and not 1938. But given the GOP successes so far, and the Democrats’ historically low approval rating resulting from their apparent post-2024 drift to the far left, it would seem to be a reasonable current conjecture.
On the other hand, if Democrats do win the midterms next year, former(?) Democrat Ruy Teixeira warns them of “The Fool’s Gold of Midterm Success,” which is well worth a read.
