Archive for 2024

SKYNET BLUFFS: AI Can Pretend To Be Stupider Than It Really Is, Scientists Find.

“Thanks to psycholinguistics, we have a relatively comprehensive understanding of what children are capable of at various ages,” Marklová told the outlet. “In particular, the theory of mind plays a significant role, as it explores the inner world of the child and is not easily emulated by observing simple statistical patterns.”

With a children-oriented theory of mind as a backdrop, the researcher and her colleagues at Charles University in Prague sought to determine if LLMs like OpenAI’s GPT-4 “can pretend to be less capable than they are.”

To figure that out, the mostly-Czech research team instructed the models to act like a child between the progressive ages of one to six years when giving responses. When put through a battery of more than 1,000 trials and cognitive tests, these “simulated child personas” did indeed seem to be advancing much the same as children those ages do — and, ultimately, demonstrated that the models can pretend to be less intelligent than they are.

“Large language models,” Marklová concluded, “are capable of feigning lower intelligence than they possess.”

Somebody quipped years ago — was it Glenn? — that the real trouble wouldn’t come when a computer could pass the Turing test but when it chose not to.

DECLINE IS A CHOICE:

The risk to California isn’t that tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, or Meta will leave. It’s that the firms that end up displacing the Bay Area giants will be from Austin or one of the other, faster-growing tech centers.

DEINDUSTRIALIZATION: German industry unlikely to fully recover from energy crisis, warns RWE boss.

German industry is unlikely to recover to pre-Ukraine war levels as elevated prices from imported liquefied natural gas have put Europe’s largest economy at a “disadvantage”, the chief of one of Germany’s leading energy companies has warned.

“Gas prices in continental Europe, especially in Germany, are structurally higher now, because we, in the end, depend on LNG imports,” said Markus Krebber, chief executive of RWE. “The German industry has a disadvantage.”

His comments come as European gas prices have plummeted 90 per cent from the record levels seen in 2022 and dipped briefly to levels last seen before the energy crisis, spurring questions about the extent to which industrial demand will recover.

Chancellor Gerhard Schröder helped make Germany dependent on Russian energy then took high-paying jobs at Russian energy firms after leaving office.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Poor OJ Never Found Nicole’s Real Killer. “Those who have been reading me for a while probably knew that I was going to have to riff on OJ this morning. Hey, it’s Friday, let’s skip war, illegal alien crime, and economic turmoil as we head into the weekend. As long as Joe Biden is president there will be plenty of all of that waiting for us on Monday.”

I’M GUESSING IT’S THE COVERUP AND THE CRIME:

That the mainstream media has gotten so blatant about being the state’s willing tool makes me wonder if they’re confident in their untouchability or just foolish.

THE FED HAS A JOB TO DO; WE HAVE A PROBLEM: The ‘supercore’ inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands.

A hotter-than-expected consumer price index report rattled Wall Street Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a measure of underlying prices.

Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.

Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said if you take the readings of the last three months and annualize them, you’re looking at a supercore inflation rate of more than 8%, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

“As we sit here today, I think they’re probably pulling their hair out,” Fitzpatrick said.

But, hey, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has his priorities:

DAVID LAT ON THE BERKELEY PROTEST:

So at the end of the day, after the UVA and UC Berkeley protests, I’m left with this question: what’s the purpose of protest?

Is it about public persuasion, winning over the hearts and minds of the undecided people on any given issue? If so, then a UVA-style protest is the way to go. Most outside observers would read about what happened at the Chemerinsky home, identify with the Chemerinskys, and think less of both the protesters and any cause they’re pushing. This is especially true in the legal profession, which is culturally conservative, i.e., more focused on rules and decorum than many other fields.

I have similar concerns about the effectiveness of pro-Palestine protests that blocked the Holland Tunnel in New York and the Bay Bridge in San Francisco for hours, causing hours of traffic delays. If I’m a commuter—perhaps a working-class commuter, who might be docked pay or fired for being late to my job—will protests like that persuade me that the pro-Palestinian cause is just? Or are they just going to make me angry at the protesters?

But in the year 2024 on a university campus, maybe protest isn’t about public persuasion, but performance. And that performativity is for the benefit not of the public, but of the protesters—who get to congratulate themselves on how they took bold action to bring attention to serious injustice.

It’s about harassment and intimidation, not about persuasion. “No justice, no peace” isn’t a request, any more than “your money or your life.”

Related: Students Don’t Have a Right to Use Public University Social Events for Their Own Political Orations, whether at administrators’ homes or in law school classrooms.

For Erwin Chemerinsky, welcome to the party, pal. You were warned.