Archive for 2022

OUT ON A LIMB: The FBI will not be forgiven after Tuesday.

“Amnesty” comes from the Greek word ἀμνηστία, whose primary meaning is “forgetfulness.” In common parlance, the word carries a suggestion of forgiveness as well. But neither forgetfulness nor forgiveness is on the docket. People are not about to forget what the politicians and their bureaucrats just did to them. And if they do not forget, neither will they forgive.

Nor are they going to forget what the FBI has done and is doing to us. The dawn raids against non-violent political rivals of the regime and pro-life activists, the nationwide dragnets to nab people who protested against the 2020 election, the spying on Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign, manufacture of forged evidence in order to mobilize the awesome surveillance apparatus of the state against American citizens and undermine Trump’s presidency. The bill of indictment is long and damning. How long? More than a thousand pages in its first iteration, which GOP members of House Judiciary Committee dropped on Friday under the title “FBI Whistleblowers: What Their Disclosures Indicate About the Politicization of the FBI and Justice Department.”

What they indicate is an agency that has gone rogue and should be dismantled. This has been a theme sounding for more than a years now. Roger L. Simon, writing for the Epoch Times, said that the FBI, like ancient Carthage, must be destroyed. Holman Jenkins, writing for the Wall Street Journal, said that the agency had to be abolished. I’ve argued the same case several times, here, for example, and here. In my column for the December Speccie, I suggest that FBI be relocated to Kansas City and have its budget cut by 75 percent. “Then,” I write, “it should be taken apart altogether,” not least because “a national police is probably unconstitutional certainly un-American.”

It’s Roger Kimball, so read the whole thing. But assuming there’s a GOP majority in one or both houses of Congress, will there be anything beyond the usual “failure theater” of previous GOP congresses?

WE’VE SEEN TOO MUCH: Sarah Hoyt: We’re not going back. “Sometimes, there singularities of experience and understanding. And once you go there, you can never ever go back. You just can’t. And we went through one of those in the last six years. And how. Things we thought we knew turned out not to be so. Experts have proven themselves either craven, stupid, or bizarrely twisted. And if they believed half the things they told us too, they’re experts ONLY in make believe.”

KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: Biden Regrets That People ‘Twisted’ His Promise to End Coal.

A joke was going around that President Joe Biden visiting Pennsylvania could only help candidate John Fetterman lose. As it turns out, Biden’s trip to California might hurt Democrats with Pennsylvania voters more than appearing in the Keystone State did.

As PJ Media’s Kevin Downey Jr reported yesterday, Biden decided to tell voters that his administration would be shutting down coal plants all across America and transitioning to wind and solar power during an unnecessary trip to California. Last I checked, no one will get beyond the margin of cheating to beat Gavin Newsom.

The White House, the Democrat National Committee, and Chuck Schumer must have all choked on whatever they were eating or drinking when they heard the president’s comments. The Pennsylvania Senate race is neck and neck, with Republican Mehmet Oz closing a 12-point gap in the last six weeks. Democrats are also running a stroke victim who can’t complete a coherent sentence and has admitted auditory processing issues.

Why would the Democrats choke when Biden uttered the above clip? Biden has repeatedly talked about eliminating coal and fossil fuel, and so has every major Democratic presidential candidate in recent years. You don’t get to breakout the Men In Black mind eraser just because there’s the midterms are looming.

MY “ADJUNCT ADMINISTRATORS” IDEA SEEMS TO HAVE FOUND A HOME AT THE UNIVERSITY OF AUSTIN: “In place of large, on-campus administrative bureaucracies, UATX plans to make administration remote, outsourcing positions abroad. Not only will this arrangement save university funds, Howland noted, but it would also pay foreign workers livable, US-level wages. Further, the school will forgo—along with competitive varsity sports—what he called ‘club-med amenities:’ climbing gyms, student recreation centers with ball pits and golf simulators, napping stations, private pools, and the like. UAustin has even rethought the principle of reserving classroom space for each academic department—at UATX, departments will have control over their budgets and bid for classrooms in a market. The money saved by this and other initiatives, Howland said, will go towards instruction.”

REAL CLEAR POLITICS: The Current State of U.S. Political Polling.

The final Monmouth University poll had New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy 11% over GOP challenger Jack Ciattarelli – in a race eventually decided by just under 3 points. Monmouth wasn’t alone: Farleigh Dickinson and Stockton University both had the race at 9% in their final poll, while Rutgers Eagleton had it at 8%.

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, was candid afterward. “I blew it,” he wrote in a Newark Star-Ledger mea culpa. The Monmouth poll, he added, “did not provide an accurate picture of the state of the governor’s race.”

So why are pollsters getting things so wrong? And which polls – and which races – should Americans keep an eye on in the final week of the 2022 midterms?

Let’s take the first question first. American University professor W. Joseph Campbell invokes Leo Tolstoy’s famous admonition in “Anna Karenina” about families: “All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” In other words, there are many ways to make polling mistakes. Here are seven:

GIGO: In computer science, the acronym stands for “garbage in, garbage out,” a principle that organizations that average polls (RealClearPolitics and 538 are the most prominent) have been contemplating lately. But the same principle applies to individual polls themselves. A basic problem when trying to extrapolate the voting preferences of millions of people based on a sample of some 600 is that the polling sample can turn out to be unrepresentative of the electorate. Too many Democrats, for example, or too few. The challenge has grown exponentially because of modern technology. Cord-cutters, mobile phones, call screening devices, an explosion in the number of polls – all these factors and more have helped produce very low response rates.

Pollsters themselves were the first to recognize the problem, but it’s proven a tricky one to fix. Steve Koczela noted after the 2020 shortcomings that pollsters thought they’d addressed the big problem of 2016, which was underestimating – and therefore undercounting – Trump’s appeal among white voters without college degrees. Yet it happened again four years later.

“We all made our best attempt to solve all of the methodological issues that we identified after 2016,” he said. They apparently didn’t weight their samples enough. Meanwhile, new problems arose, including not detecting Trumpism’s ability to pump up turnout among working-class Hispanics.

Here’s video of Campbell himself appearing on C-SPAN: When Polls Goes Bad: American University Professor Joseph Campbell taught a class on public opinion and election forecasting. He spoke about some of the most significant polling misses in American politics. American University is located in Washington, D.C.

FASTER, PLEASE: The Collapse of Biden’s Woketopia.

Joe Biden and the Democrats have a big problem. It isn’t just that they stand to lose in the midterm elections and maybe the Presidency in 2024. They stand to lose much more than that. They stand to lose everything.

The American people, by now, have had enough. They’re sick of cowards who cannot stand up to the activists who control them. They’re not just sick of them in Washington. They’re sick of them everywhere. They’re sick of being told what they can and can’t say, what they can and can’t think.

In 2020, a New Woke Order exploded on the streets. It looked a lot like the rehearsal at Evergreen and across many college campuses all over the country. It wasn’t all of the Zoomers leading the charge, but the activists have been loud and powerful. They have captured corporate America and nearly every cultural institution in the country. And they’ve captured Joe Biden and the Democrats.

Read the whole thing.

METAPHOR ALERT: The American Flags at Fetterman Event Tell the Tale for Dems’ Election Hopes (Video).

Fetterman has had Joe Biden there in Pennsylvania to campaign, but given how unpopular Joe Biden is, that didn’t help.

So, Fetterman pulled out the Obama card and had him in to help out at an event on Saturday in Pittsburgh.

But there was a seminal moment during the event which was perhaps a metaphor for Fetterman and all the Democrats this cycle.

Fetterman was at the podium, making comments to introduce Obama. He talked about Dr. Oz appearing with President Donald Trump on Saturday; Fetterman claimed that he would be appearing with a “sedition free” president. Watch what happens next.

Also, Fetterman had a very Brandon-esque “Trunalimunumaprzure” moment at the same event: Fetterman says he supports ‘codifying’ Roe v. Wade, but also celebrates its ‘demise:’

WHEN YOU’VE LOST KWANZA HALL: Top Georgia Democrat snubs Stacey Abrams, endorses Republican Brian Kemp. “Hall is also a former member of the Atlanta City Council, and briefly served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for Georgia’s 5th Congressional District following the death of former Democratic Rep. John Lewis, who represented the seat.”

IS WATER RACIST? ISN’T EVERYTHING?

Last year California’s State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), explicitly responding to the suddenly discovered legacy of “white supremacy” and “the national and worldwide backlash against racism toward Black people and related Black Lives Matter protests of 2020,” passed a nine-page resolution(accompanied by 47 pages of “reference literature”), headlined “Condemning Racism, Xenophobia, Bigotry, and Racial Injustice and Strengthening Commitment to Racial Equality, Diversity, Inclusion, Access, and Anti-Racism.” One might have thought “inclusion” would have involved mentioning homophobia and Islamophobia, too, except that Black Lives Matter and their supporters get very angry when you mention the importance of any non-black group.

This cliché-ridden piece of predictable performance posturing is a case study of several intertwined traits of progressive governance today. California’s State Water Resources Control Board (and nine regional subordinate water boards) dates back to the 1960s, and was initially charged with monitoring the state’s water with an eye to detecting and remediating pollution from major sources such as industrial production, agricultural runoff, wastewater, and natural sources of unhealthy water. Surface and subsurface water quality is one of the more challenging environmental problems the nation faces because of the wide variety of ways water quality can be degraded, so it is not surprising that water monitors and regulators have a large range of factors to manage, from underground storage tanks to—in California’s case—the effects of specialized industries such as winemaking to, more recently, cannabis cultivation.

But as with all bureaucracies, mission creep and the political imperative of ever larger budgets and staff always leads to inexorable growth of power and reach, even as its primary original mission remains unfulfilled. Naturally the Board now includes “climate change” as one of its primary concerns, and “public outreach” and education—essentially propaganda and self-congratulation—as key functions. It is not surprising that it would jump on the anti-racist bandwagon along with everyone else in Leftist government.

But is California’s water more or less racist than its roads and bridges?

THE BULWARK CONTINUES TO CONSERVE CONSERVATISM MOST CONSERVATIVELY: “Other than murder…”

Impressive ratio.

TWENTY MINUTES INTO THE FUTURE: The Coming Storm Over Trans ‘Tuskegee Experiment.’ “The COVID amnesty essay in the Atlantic will be followed soon by a transgender amnesty essay wherein the left says they didn’t know what was coming. Tens of thousands of young women, their bodies ruined, will face despair every time they see themselves in the shower.”