FREUDIAN SLIP OF THE DAY:

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TURNOUT: Young Men Could Boost Trump to Victory—if They Show Up. “Young men vote at far lower rates than many other demographic groups. They are more likely than older generations and their female peers to be disconnected from politics, and they are increasingly disillusioned with the country’s institutions, according to researchers and election analysts.”

Well, not without reason. Plus:

In interviews with dozens of young men around the country in recent months, some said they don’t see a place for themselves in today’s Democratic Party. Others said they are drawn to Trump’s politically incorrect approach. Many said they were focused foremost on their finances—with several arguing that Trump would do more to benefit their stock portfolios. Others said they appreciated the former president’s pledge to crack down on illegal immigration.

Luke Meihack, 25, a high school physical education teacher in the Milwaukee suburbs, said he didn’t used to be a Trump supporter, but changed his mind during Joe Biden’s presidency, and said many men his age are moving in the same direction.

“It’s mostly guys. Guys are more big into Trump,” he said. “He’s a guy that speaks in a way that demands respect, and that appeals to a lot of guys.”

Not all of his peers are planning to vote, he said. “I’m still in a group chat with a bunch of my guys from high school. There’s maybe like eight or nine of them, and like two or three of them have said they’re not voting,” he said. “Some of them say, ‘I don’t care either way.’ ”

Meihack, who listened to Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance’s interview with Rogan while driving to the Trump rally on Friday, said he follows political news through social-media platforms including X and podcasts aired by the Daily Wire, a media company co-founded by the political commentator Ben Shapiro.

Anecdotally, I hear a lot of stories of women who used to be anti-Trump saying they’re voting for him this time. We’ll see if that amounts to anything.

HEH:

It does seem like everything went south starting when they shot Harambe. . . .

HINT: THIS CANDIDATE GREW UP IN A MIDDLE-CLASS FAMILY: Who’s the Fascist?  The presidential candidates’ records contradict the media narrative. My latest in City Journal.

ROGER KIMBALL: State of Play, November 3, 2024.

Historians have often noted the tendency of generals to embark on a new war with assumptions more pertinent to the last one. This is what the enemy did last time; ergo, he’ll do something similar this time. That worked for us last time; ergo we should do it again. Fighting the last war is always a dangerous temptation.

The conduct of political warfare is not unlike the conduct of the wars that deploy armies rather than candidates, navies rather than the media, aircraft rather than pollsters. There is always the temptation to think that the assumptions and tactics of the last war are relevant to the current campaign.

This is especially the case, I believe, in the 2024 presidential race. The principals are the same: Donald Trump vs. what Vivek Ramaswamy has dubbed “the System.” The Dems changed out their primary avatar in July, shoehorning in Kamala Harris, where Joe Biden had been standing.  But that maneuver, though profoundly anti-democratic, was merely a cosmetic expedient.  The public face of the campaign was changed.  The organizing soul remained the same.

In essence, the Dems are waging the same campaign now that they waged in 2016, in 2020, and beyond.  Counting once again on their huge advantages in money (almost 3 to 1) and near total control of the media, they believe—or at least have acted as if they believe—that they can play the same game this time and win. They have not yet noticed—or at least have not yet effectively recalibrated their campaign to account for the fact—that many things “on the ground” have changed radically.

The Dems are fighting the last war.  Trump is not.

Well, we’ll find out on Tuesday. (Or maybe some time later in the week. Hopefully.)