DON’T GET COCKY:
Not sure I believe this, but a double-digit margin is impressive.
Useful to remember that Rasmussen was rather bullish on Trump in 2020. At one point during that campaign, Rasmussen estimated Trump led by 1 point.
Final Rasmussen #poll in 2020 had Biden up by 1; he won by 4.5… https://t.co/QggqWOx3TD— W. Joseph Campbell (@wjosephcampbell) May 4, 2024
DON’T GET COCKY: New CNN Poll Is a Bloodbath for Joe Biden.
DON’T GET COCKY BUT DO POP SOME CORN: Late-Night Panic: Biden Could Lose to Trump!
Now, with the Biden-Trump rematch heading our way, some of late-night TV’s biggest stars are getting nervous.
Some might say panicky. Why?
The polls suggest the former President might just beat the current President come November. We’re a long way from November, but at the moment the late-night crowd isn’t happy with the state of the race.
Let’s start with Stephen Colbert, who literally joined a Biden fundraiser late last month fearing a second Trump term. The far-Left host is trying to drag President Biden over the finish line one more time.
To do so, he’s demanding Israel stop fighting back against the ghouls who tortured, raped and killed more than a thousand innocent Israeli citizens on Oct. 7. That plays into Biden’s hands, of course. The Democrat is losing his base for supporting Israel six months into the current war.
Remember, Colbert hosts a comedy talk show. He’s not a pundit or an advisor to Team Biden. He just looks and sounds like one, routinely abandoning any pretense of comedy in the process.
His fellow late-night Leftist Seth Meyers is even worse on that front.
Hard to believe — but Christian Toto has the receipts.
DON’T GET COCKY: ‘Now They’re Voting Red’: A Pennsylvania Fracking Boom Weighs on Biden’s Re-Election Chances.
The area’s reliance on energy jobs helps explain why Democrats look to be losing more voters than they have gained here despite a Biden agenda that’s pumping billions of dollars into infrastructure and manufacturing.
“Everyone here is aware that it’s better for oil and gas if Republicans get elected,” said Adam Kress, who works with Sabo in Zelienople, 30 miles north of Pittsburgh.
There is little sign that Biden can regain substantial support in seven largely working-class and rural counties that surround the city, every one of which produced a larger vote margin for Trump in 2020 than in 2016. The resistance to Biden’s energy policies is making it harder for the incumbent to stop his party’s decline among noncollege voters there, forcing the party to wring more votes out of a Democratic base elsewhere that, so far, seems dispirited.
They have good reason to be.
DON’T GET COCKY: Is a Key Biden Narrative About 2024 Going Down in Flames?
DON’T GET COCKY: Here’s What Biden Doesn’t Want You to Know About His Fundraising Numbers. “Some of Biden’s fundraising advantage has been a mirage because he has been jointly fundraising with the DNC since he launched his campaign while Donald Trump only secured the Republican nomination this month. But, even if we ignore that, a deeper dive into Joe Biden’s fundraising numbers points to big trouble for his campaign.”
DON’T GET COCKY:
Woah.
I know it's advisable not to focus too much on any single prexy election survey this far out, but still:
Well-regarded Selzer poll (likely voters reached by phone), has Trump up +7 over Biden@jaselzer @GrinnellPoll https://t.co/2q3gratzzd— W. Joseph Campbell (@wjosephcampbell) March 20, 2024
DON’T GET COCKY… BUT DO ENJOY THE SCHADENFREUDE GOODNESS OF STORIES LIKE THIS ONE: Biden ‘Angry and Anxious’ About Faltering Campaign.
DON’T GET COCKY:
In the CNN electoral map, Donald Trump already has enough votes to win.
This map is 272 Trump, 225 Biden. pic.twitter.com/QuB8ieUpTl
— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) March 14, 2024
That’s if the election were held now. It’ll be held in November, after plenty of time for shenanigans.
DON’T GET COCKY: LOL! CNN Is Too Afraid to Update Its Election Projection Map.
DON’T GET COCKY: Election Countdown: Trump Surges in Swing States Amid Legal Turmoil. Why shouldn’t you get cocky? Because: “The election is eight months away. The Democrats will not be sitting by idly. They have a country to ruin and power to maintain, and they are not going to let up on Trump.”
DON’T GET COCKY:
Two new national #polls show Trump up +4 in prexy election matchup w/Biden@NYTimes-Siena has Trump ahead, 48-44 (980 likely voters); @Forbes-HarrisX has Trump in lead, 52-48 (3,021 registered voters)
➡️Biden not led @RCPolitics poll avg since Sept.https://t.co/svJLf3LlwN— W. Joseph Campbell (@wjosephcampbell) March 2, 2024
Flashback: The ‘cabal’ that bragged of foisting Joe Biden on us must answer for his failed presidency.
UPDATE: John Podhoretz: How Can Biden Stay In Now?
The American people are sour on the state of things for a reason. Inflation may be lower than it has been, but goods still cost substantially more than they did when Biden took office—and any benefit Americans may be enjoying from the impressive wage growth they may have experienced has been immediately eaten up by higher food prices and higher interest rates and prices on big-ticket items like cars and homes. All of this can get better in the course of this year, but there’s no sign any of it will improve dramatically. And as was proved by the White House effort to make “Bidenomics” happen, with the same success Gretchen Wieners had in making fetch happen, you can’t talk people into feeling that the day-to-day difficulties of life are improving. They will either feel the improvement, have their mood lightened, and feel better about the country and its leadership or they won’t. Right now they aren’t.
And then there’s age.
If you dig into the crosstabs of the NYT-Siena poll you’ll find that there are a bunch of questions they haven’t yet released the answers to but will (I’m guessing) on subsequent days to keep their poll generating new news. I’m guessing those unreleased numbers have to do with perceptions of Biden and Trump on matters of age, competence, and criminality. And given that the results in this poll dovetail pretty well with the recent NBC News poll released three weeks ago, the age response is likely to be devastating for Biden. As Mark Murray of NBC News reported: “A combined 76% of voters say they have major concerns (62%) or moderate concerns (14%) about Biden’s not having the necessary mental and physical health to be president for a second term.”
It’s been said a billion times, but I’ll say it again: One thing Biden really cannot do is get any younger.
Thursday night the president will give the State of the Union address. The stakes are crazily high, because there’s no way to set the bar low. One false move and he’s done for.
But what does “done for” mean? I have no idea. No one can explain to me the modality of how Democrats would dump him from the ticket. That leaves it to Biden and his loved ones. The question is whether Biden himself is looking at these numbers—and in moments of clarity is able to discern the colossal humiliation he may be on the verge of experiencing, not to mention historical judgment that will be rendered of his feckless decision to hold on to the reins of power should he lose in November.
Might he, therefore, get himself out of the race and give Democrats a chance to do what they clearly think is the most important thing they can do—save America from another Trump term?
While the rest of the left are going “Full Cross-Tab Truther” on the poll, Kamala, Michelle, and Gavin smile.
DON’T GET COCKY: You Won’t Believe Which Group Just Jumped on the Trump Train.
DON’T GET COCKY: Gas export pause could scramble Biden’s chances in Pennsylvania.
Democrats and labor unions in the state fear that the energy’s industry’s huge footprint there could make it a ripe target for GOP front-runner former President Donald Trump — even as environmentalists praised the move as a brave political action to protect the climate.
Biden’s reelection this year may hinge on whether he can hold the heavily working-class state he narrowly carried in 2020, which is now the second biggest natural gas producer in the country behind Texas. And while his move to reassess the climate impacts of natural gas shipments may have helped shore up support from young environmental activists, others are questioning his strategy.
Democratic Sens. Bob Casey, who is facing reelection this November, and John Fetterman, both argued the pause could hurt their state.
“Sen. Casey and I are very pro-energy, pro-job, pro-union and pro-American security,” Fetterman told POLITICO. “We stand with the president, but on this issue we happen to disagree. I am very clear. Natural gas is necessary right now. It’s a critical part of our nation’s energy stack.”
A lot of union guys who went for Trump over Hillary came home to the Democrats for Biden in 2020 but I don’t think that’s a mistake they’ll make twice.
DON’T GET COCKY: Biden should lose reelection, odds ‘increasingly bleak.’ “Biden’s chances may rest on him experiencing a comeback similar to what Obama achieved in 2012 when Biden was serving as vice president. That year, national mood indicators and Obama’s job approval rating significantly improved during the campaign, and the president was elected to a second term. Unlike Obama, though, Biden also faces questions about his age and ability to carry out his duties in a second term. Biden is also starting at a lower point in job approval than Obama did, meaning he has to show a bigger improvement.”
DON’T GET COCKY: Stunning NBC Poll: Biden Presidency ‘in Peril, Declined on Every Measure.’
Illegal immigration has been widely deemed the No. 1 voting issue, according to exit polls in the early GOP primary states.
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Democrat pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates told NBC News.
“On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
The numbers look great now for Trump and “difficult” for the incumbent going into the heart of the 2024 primary cycle, according to Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
“It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a reelection,” McInturff told NBC News.
With 73% of registered voters say the U.S. is on the wrong track under Biden, the only silver lining for the sitting president and Horwitt is there remains time to turn the numbers back around.
With what, mass hypnosis?
DON’T GET COCKY: How Corruption Hollowed Out China’s Military. “I’ve got to say, trying to get away with graft in your nation’s nuclear forces is a pretty bold move.”
Rep. James Clyburn, an early Biden supporter who propelled him to victory in South Carolina, now says he is ‘very concerned’ with the president’s standing with the black community.
Clyburn was asked on CNN about President Joe Biden’s African American approval ahead of a Biden trip to Clyburn’s home state on Monday.
‘I’m not worried — I’m very concerned,’ the South Carolina Democrat said.
Biden is set to deliver remarks at the historic Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, the site of the 2015 shooting that left nine African Americans killed by a white supremacist.
Clyburn revealed he has sat down with the president to voice his concerns. He added that he has ‘no problem with the Biden administration and what it has done,’ but worries that the White House is not selling its successes to voters.
Whenever the stated concern about a candidate is that he’s failing to communicate his successes, the real concern is that the candidate doesn’t have any successes worth communicating.
That aside, Clyburn single-handedly saved Biden’s failing 2020 primary effort and presumably knows a thing or two about where Biden stands with his usually most reliable constituents.
DON’T GET COCKY: Are We Underestimating the Democrats in 2024?
DON’T GET COCKY: Not Only Can Trump Win, Right Now He’s the Favorite To Win. “As the saying goes, actions speak louder than words. Elections analysts seem to know that they are obliged to mouth the words that Trump can win, but deep down, they don’t believe them. The notion that Biden is the favorite is deeply internalized, likely for a variety of reasons.”
DON’T GET COCKY: Biden Camp and Dem Donors Appear to Give Up on Key 2024 Swing State.
DON’T GET COCKY: Joe Biden is facing a near-historic deficit for an incumbent.
Take a look at recent national surveys from CBS News/YouGov, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, Marquette University Law School and Quinnipiac University. All five are high-quality polls that meet CNN standards for publication.
All five give Trump an advantage of 2 to 4 points over Biden among registered or likely voters. On their own, none of these data points mean too much. Trump’s lead in all of them is within the margin of error. Averaged together, though, they paint a picture of an incumbent with a real problem.
Over the past 80 years, incumbents have, on average, led their eventual challengers by a little more than 10 points about a year out from the election. This includes nearly every incumbent for whom we have polling since Franklin Roosevelt in 1943.
It includes Barack Obama against Mitt Romney in November 2011. This is notable because a number of Democrats have tried to dismiss the current data showing Biden in trouble by saying that Obama had been behind at this point, too. That simply isn’t true.
And this from Maureen Dowd:
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Donald Trump is ahead in five battleground states and, as some other surveys have found, is even making inroads among Black voters and young voters. There’s a generational fracture in the Democratic Party over the Israeli-Hamas horror and Biden’s age. Third-party spoilers are circling.
The president turns 81 on Monday; the Oval hollows out its occupants quickly, and Biden is dealing with two world-shattering wars, chaos at the border, a riven party and a roiling country.
“I think he has a 50-50 shot here, but no better than that, maybe a little worse,” Axelrod said. “He thinks he can cheat nature here and it’s really risky. They’ve got a real problem if they’re counting on Trump to win it for them. I remember Hillary doing that, too.”
The president’s flash of anger indicates that he may be in denial, surrounded by enablers who are sugarcoating a grim political forecast.
Biden has always lashed out, always punched down. Even if he isn’t surrounded by enablers, he doesn’t have the strength of character to listen to honest criticism.
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