Author Archive: Stephen Green

XI’S CCP IS REVERTING TO FORM: China’s wanton economic self-destruction.

Beijing has labeled this year the “Year of Investing in China.” Regional leaders have sent delegations around the world to drum up interest, with little to show for it. At a World Economic Forum event in the Chinese port city of Tianjin last month, China’s premier Li Qiang told a round table of business leaders, “I want to take this opportunity to affirm China’s commitment to opening up.” While this week, Xi Jinping himself was quoted by state television as calling for greater foreign cooperation in trade, investment and financial innovation.

It all smacked a bit of desperation after months of Xi trying to bring foreign companies to heel. This including questioning staff at consulting firm Bain and Co and raiding and detaining staff at the Beijing office of the due diligence company Mintz Group. Both of these companies deal in information, making the sort of insights into the market and about would-be partners that are essential in the opaque world of Chinese business. The CCP seems intent on closing down sources of information it does not control. China has barred its companies from buying from US chipmaker Micron Technology and has introduced a vaguely worded anti-espionage law, which allows for the inspection of electronic devices and baggage. It has also raised fears that business activities long regarded as routine, such as market research, could be criminalized. All of this has added to the perception in foreign boardrooms that doing business in China has become very risky. There are whispers that the country is becoming uninvestable.

Plus: “There’s long been a view in Beijing that foreign companies would put up with almost anything for a slice of the China market, but calculations are changing, and many are now concluding that Xi’s China is simply not worth the ordeal.”

Previously: “People talk about ‘deglobalization,’ but the proper term is ‘reglobalization minus China.'”

THE BEST TIME TO BUILD UP YOUR DETERRENCE IS LONG BEFORE YOU NEED IT; THE NEXT-BEST TIME IS RIGHT NOW: Now That the Whole World Knows We’re Low on Ammunition, Frantic Effort to Re-Arm Commences.

We go through something like this every time we find ourselves at war, or just having to help supply one — and yet we never learn. As CDR Salamander noted about our acquisitions in this must-read piece about the Pacific theater:

This whole struggle – one that has been going on for a long time – is emblematic of a larger problem that our nation has with its acquisition system – bureaucratic, self-serving, and bloated – that acts not like it is there to serve the military, but the military is there to serve it and its holy processes. It is proud, selfish and insecure. It doubles down on prior bad decision, and responds with jealous rage should any good idea come from elsewhere.

Read the whole thing.

WELL, YES: Democrats Are the Real Racists, and They’re Proving It Yet Again. “Last week, Georgia State Rep. Mesha Mainor announced she was leaving the Democratic Party. Since then, she’s been the target of a flood of racist hate mail from the left. Mainor shared some of the emails she received on Twitter.”

INCENTIVES MATTER: Why Homelessness in California is Worse Than In Other States. “Stanford recently looked at it last year, their school of economics looked at it, and they found were over the last 10 years, most of the United States homelessness dropped by roughly 9%. In the same period here in the state of California, it went up by 43%.”

Much more at the link. If you don’t have the time or inclination to watch the video, Lawrence Person has done his usual excellent job of breaking out the bullet points.

CHANGE? Media Titan Barry Diller Delivers Doomsday Forecast: Actor and Writer Strikes Could Lead to Hollywood’s ‘Absolute Collapse.’

“You had Covid, which sent people home to watch streaming television and killed theaters,” Diller said. “You’ve had the results of huge investments in streaming which have produced all these losses for all these companies that are now kind of retrenching. So at this moment, it’s kind of a perfect storm.”

Diller called for a settlement deadline of September 1, and said there could be catastrophic ramifications if the strikes extend into the fall.

“Who cares about Hollywood?” Diller said — referencing what he believes to be overriding public sentiment on the issue. “Who cares about it? But the truth is, this is a huge business! Both domestically and for world exporters. … But these conditions will potentially produce an absolute collapse of an entire industry.”

The IAC chief acknowledged the “existential issues” at play, and said there is “no trust between the parties” — which could prolong the strikes.

Obligatory:

RALPH SCHOELLHAMMER: The human cost of Net Zero.

Western nations have long enjoyed the benefits of industrialisation. Now, by clamping down on fossil fuels, they are trying to pull up the ladder. German foreign secretary Annalena Baerbock even had the audacity to lecture South Africa on its use of coal recently, while her own government has been burning it at record rates. Not without reason, parts of the developing world are beginning to accuse the West of engaging in ‘green colonialism’.

Make no mistake, the West’s prosperity rests on fossil fuels. The Industrial Revolution was fuelled by the exponential growth in available energy. In 1870, British steam engines generated four million horsepower, the equivalent amount of work done by 40million men. Feeding such a workforce would have required three times Britain’s entire wheat output. But in 1870, all it took to generate one horsepower was a pound of coal.

Coal was just the beginning. Soon oil was added to the fuel mix and eventually gas, too. This massive increase in energy production allowed a tremendous increase in living standards. The average Briton in 1960 was six times richer than his great grandfather in 1860.

Industrialisation transforms societies. The industrialisation of agriculture, for example, enables higher outputs with less labour, freeing humans for other endeavours. In the US, the labour needed to produce a kilogram of grain fell by 98 per cent between 1800 and 2020. The share of the population working in agriculture fell by a similar margin during that period. Not every country will have to follow this development path exactly – coal, for example, could be replaced by gas and nuclear. But what is certain is that no country will be able to industrialise and develop without fossil fuels.

The short version: Decarbonization is just neocolonialism with a smiling face.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Kamala Harris Apparently Wants to Kill Us Now to Save the Climate. “The actual quote — which we’ll get to in a moment — is classic Harris nonsensicality. She sees some place she wants to go, then immediately wanders off the path. By the time she gets to the end of the thought she couldn’t find her way back to her original point with GPS and a sherpa guide”

WELL, YES: The San Francisco real estate market is a ‘disaster,’ expert says.

The details in the first part of the article you’ve probably read elsewhere, including here at Instapundit and at VodkaPundit. But this next part is underreported:

The issues with commercial real estate extend beyond San Francisco, and according to the real estate expert, is “worse” than people think.

“It’s worse because a lot of the news isn’t out there yet,” Dolly said. “They’re trying to work with the owners of these properties to say, look, we’ll give you a short-term extension, let’s work this out. But the owners are saying, no, I can’t afford this. So unless you give me half an interest rate like I had before or we do something else, very creative, I can’t afford to keep this and continue to maintain it.”

Jenny added that many of the loans in commercial real estate are coming due within the next 18 months.

“We’re going to see how this plays out. And if you just sit on the sidelines, you can make 5.5% on a six-month T-bill… That’s being paid handsomely for doing absolutely nothing. So are you really going to invest in residential, commercial? You’re not. You’re going to be on the sidelines,” Jenny said.

Real estate is always a lagging indicator because the market is illiquid and the interest rates it relies on usually change slowly. On the plus side, I suppose: Shrinking real estate values are disinflationary!

WHY, IT’S ALMOST AS THOUGH THE LEFT WANTS TO CREATE AN EDUCATIONAL UNDERCLASS THEY CAN MANIPULATE:

Or should I have said, “enlarge?”

CHRISTIAN TOTO: Silver Lining: Hollywood Strikes Let Conservative Art Thrive.

That leaves two options for fresh programming down the not-so-short road, beyond projects already completed and ready to roll. Streamers are looking overseas to import foreign TV shows and movies to bulk up their content lineups.
…

We’re also being threatened with a deluge of reality shows to tide viewers over until the dueling strikes are settled.

There’s another option, though, one that wouldn’t be possible just a few years ago.

Conservative platforms like The Daily Wire, Blaze TV, Fox News, Angel Studios and various YouTube-based channels are cranking up their original programming efforts. That was underway long before the twin strikes shuttered Hollywood.

Now, they may be one of the only games in town.

People are hungry for entertainment and, if the big-budget flops of the last few years are anything to judge by, tired of the thin gruel Hollywood keeps dishing out.

FLORIDA MAN FRIDAY [VIP]: He Hid WHAT, WHERE? “This week we have the curious case of the marmoset thief, the worst attempt at smuggling contraband into jail ever, and what happens when New York Man loses his shirt (and pants and underwear) in Vegas.”

ANTISOCIAL MEDIA: Meta Threads engagement has dropped off since red-hot debut, tracking firms say.

“The Threads launch really did ‘break the internet,’ or at least the Sensor Tower models,” Anthony Bartolacci, managing director at Sensor Tower, a marketing intelligence firm, told CNBC. “In the 10-plus years Sensor Tower has been estimating app installs, the first 72 hours of Threads was truly in a class by itself.”

But, he added, Sensor Tower data suggests a significant pullback in user engagement since Threads’ launch: On Tuesday and Wednesday, the platform’s number of daily active users were down about 20% from Saturday, and the time spent for user was down 50%, from 20 minutes to 10 minutes.

“These early returns signal that despite the hoopla during its launch, it will still be an uphill climb for Threads to carve out space in most users’ social network routine,” Bartolacci said. “The backing of Meta and the integration with Instagram likely gives Threads a much higher flood than other services, but it will need a more compelling value proposition than simply ‘Twitter, but without Elon Musk.'”

That’s a huge dropoff.

Meta made it easy, not just to sign up, but to bring all of your followers over from Instagram. That got a lot of people to take Threads out for a spin.

But what they found there was “vapid, boring and destined to fail.”