Author Archive: Stephen Green

CHANGE: Over 140,000 Farms Lost in 5 Years.

Between 2017 and 2022, the number of farms in the U.S. declined by 141,733 or 7%, according to USDA’s 2022 Census of Agriculture, released on Feb. 13. Acres operated by farm operations during the same timeframe declined by 20.1 million (2.2%), a loss equivalent to an area about the size of Maine. Only 1.88% of acres operated and 1% of farm operations were classified under a non-family corporate farm structure.

Conducted every five years, the Census of Agriculture collects data on land use and ownership, producer characteristics, production practices, income and expenditures. USDA defines a farm as an operation that produced and sold, or normally would have sold, $1,000 or more of agricultural products during the census year.

While the number of farm operations and acres operated declined, the value of agricultural production increased, rising from $389 billion in 2017 to $533 billion in 2022 (40% nominally and 17% adjusted for inflation). These updated numbers highlight the continuing trend of fewer operations farming fewer acres of land but producing more each year.

The productivity increases are wonderful. But it sure would be nice if Bidenomics allowed it to be reflected in my grocery bill.

INSTAPUNDIT REMAINS 100% HUMAN: Proliferating ‘news’ sites spew AI-generated fake stories. “Propaganda-spewing websites have typically relied on armies of writers, but generative artificial intelligence tools now offer a significantly cheaper and faster way to fabricate content that is often hard to decipher from authentic information.”

Related (From Ed): This is what clicking that ‘I’m Not A Robot’ button really does — and it’s probably not what you’re thinking.

V’GER: JPL’s Voyager team ‘extremely hopeful’ after ailing, faraway craft shows signs of former self.

The elderly spacecraft has been speaking in gibberish since November 2023, and the Voyager engineering team has yet to fix the problem. As though a stroke left Voyager 1 with aphasia, it can hear the messages being sent from Earth but can’t respond coherently, providing no information on its health or status.

The issue likely lies in the flight data system (FDS), which compiles information about the spacecraft’s health, operational status and scientific observations into a string of 1’s and 0’s that are sent to Earth. Until recently, Voyager 1 had been transmitting a repetitive string of nonsense, indicating that the FDS may be “stuck”.

Without restoring communication, the Voyager team cannot tell what the probe needs to stay alive; consigning Voyager 1 to a lonely, unknowable demise.

“The likely cause of the issue is some type of corrupted bit structure in the FDS computer. We don’t know where that corruption is,” explained Dr. Suzanne Dodd, project manager for the Voyager Interstellar Mission, who describes this issue as the most serious she’s seen since joining the team in 2010.

In the past couple of weeks, Voyager 1 has shown promising signs of improvement. The probe is finally transmitting patterns of 1’s and 0’s that look familiar to the engineers.

Previously: “The problem was, the gibberish was coming from the flight direction software — something like an operating system. And no copy of that operating system remained in existence on Earth.”

Or maybe its knowledge has reached the limits of this universe and it must evolve.

GAZA WAR: Hamas Bets on Ramadan to Help It Survive Israel’s Assault.

Hamas’s chief in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is also calculating that Ramadan, which begins with the new-moon sighting expected Monday or Tuesday, could spark violence near religious sites in Jerusalem, expanding the conflict beyond Gaza and drawing Iran and Hezbollah deeper and more directly into his war against Israel, according to political analysts.

Israel has warned that unless a deal is reached by Ramadan to release hostages and pause the fighting, its military will push ahead with plans to attack Hamas in its last stronghold of Rafah on Gaza’s southern border, where an estimated 1.5 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering.

Cease-fire talks are expected to resume Sunday. But their halting progress is increasing the likelihood of an Israeli assault against Hamas in Rafah, the last major city in Gaza that Israeli forces haven’t taken.

“Hamas thinks the month of Ramadan will serve its interests,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Al-Azhar University in Gaza who is now based in Cairo. Hamas leaders’ belief that the holy month will increase international pressure on Israel to end the war is “why they keep saying they are in no rush” to agree to a cease-fire, he said.

Joe Biden agrees that a ceasefire — which he is pushing — helps Hamas:

Biden clearly did not mean to admit the truth but that’s OK because the press will cover for him.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Kamala Harris Is Dumber and Closer to the Presidency Than Ever. “To the surprise of no one, there was a lot of ceasefire/Gaza nonsense at last night’s Academy Awards ceremony. We expect that from vapid, uninformed actors though. It is an entirely different thing when the Vice President of the United States of America is throwing an ally under the bus and publicly propping up the bad guys.”

CHANGE: Why Walmart’s quick success in generative AI search should have Google worried.

Walmart is talking up its ability to use generative AI as a one-stop shop to search when you need to plan an event, rather than online destination to search for individual items. During a call with analysts after its February earnings, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon talked about the gen AI search capabilities in its app.

“The thing we’re most excited about that’s already happened is the way search has improved, and the way generative AI helped us really improve a solution-oriented search experience for customers and members,” McMillon said on the earnings call. “And it happened pretty quickly.”

It also adds to the questions about future use of a search engine like Google.

Walmart long ago established itself as a major tech player, successfully fending off years of anxiety over Amazon and remaining a leader in the retail space whose shares are now trading at an all-time high. The tech narrative is one the company has been spinning since it bought Jet.com, started by a former Amazon executive Marc Lore, noted Forrester vice president, principal analyst Sucharita Kodali. As a technology company, Walmart has to experiment a lot, and in the case of adding generative AI search capabilities, there’s a very low cost for failure, she said.

“It establishes them as an innovator in the space,” Kodali said. “They’re better to be a leader than a follower in their shoes. They’re operating from a position of strength.”

Google’s worst enemy is actually Google: “Experiments can go wrong, though, as happened to Alphabet recently when it launched the Gemini gen AI into the market before it was ready.”

Except that isn’t true. Gemini was ready and performed exactly as it was designed to perform.

Google created a trust issue that search upstarts like Walmart don’t have.

HMM: BRICS Nations Challenge US Dollar Dominance: Blockchain Payment System In The Works.

This system, fueled by the cutting-edge technology of blockchain, promises to disrupt the current dollar-dominated landscape, potentially altering the course of international trade and finance.

Fueling speculation about a potential paradigm shift, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov recently announced plans for a BRICS-led payment system based on blockchain technology. This move is widely seen as a push towards de-dollarization, aiming to reduce reliance on the US dollar in international transactions.

Ushakov emphasized the system’s goal to be “convenient for governments, businesses, and common people to use, as well as cost-effective and free of politics,” implying a clear break from the current dollar-centric system.

BRICS is made up of countries you wouldn’t trust to walk your dog, much less hold sway over international trade. The only reason BRICS hasn’t been laughed off the world stage is us.

All we had to do was show a little fiscal restraint, and maintain the naval and air forces we had 30 years ago — but apparently that was too much to ask.

FLORIDA MAN FRIDAY [VIP]: They Drove It Like They Stole It — at Gunpoint. “Time for your much-needed break from the serious news, and this week we have an important lesson in strip club etiquette, an even more important lesson in understanding your limitations as a driver, and Texas Man doing his best Blues Brothers imitation.’

THEY WENT WOKE AND YOU KNOW THE REST: Victoria’s Secret Falls Most Ever in Faltering Turnaround.

Underscoring the retailer’s struggle to gain relevance with customers, the company said Wednesday it expects net sales of $6 billion this year, weaker than last year. Thursday’s share decline is Victoria’s Secret’s largest since its July 2021 initial public offering, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The company’s pledges to improve sales “did not come to fruition,” JP Morgan analyst Matthew Boss wrote in a note Wednesday, downgrading the stock to underweight from neutral.

Victoria’s Secret has been working to attract and retain customers through initiatives like a rebranded fashion show and the expansion of swim and apparel categories, but the efforts have yet to pay off.

VS used to sell much more apparel — my wife loved their boots and oversized sweaters before they quit selling them more than ten years ago. But VS got out of apparel to focus on lingerie, which they then insisted on advertising using unattractive models.

After confusing and alienating their core buyers for so long, I’m not sure they can ever win them back.

IT’S THE SUPER-NARROW ARMRESTS THAT ARE THE REAL PROBLEM: Southwest defends new seat redesign after social media backlash. “Enthusiasm has been delayed for the redesign and new seating, with nearly 20,000 negative comments on a TikTok video revealing a first-look at the new RECARGO seats, many of them criticizing the lack of space.”

They thought RECARGO was a good name for a passenger seat?

WE TOLD YOU SO, WE TOLD YOU SO, WE TOLD YOU SO: Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power.

A major factor behind the skyrocketing demand is the rapid innovation in artificial intelligence, which is driving the construction of large warehouses of computing infrastructure that require exponentially more power than traditional data centers. AI is also part of a huge scale-up of cloud computing. Tech firms like Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft are scouring the nation for sites for new data centers, and many lesser-known firms are also on the hunt.

The proliferation of crypto-mining, in which currencies like bitcoin are transacted and minted, is also driving data center growth. It is all putting new pressures on an overtaxed grid — the network of transmission lines and power stations that move electricity around the country. Bottlenecks are mounting, leaving both new generators of energy, particularly clean energy, and large consumers facing growing wait times for hookups.

The situation is sparking battles across the nation over who will pay for new power supplies, with regulators worrying that residential ratepayers could be stuck with the bill for costly upgrades. It also threatens to stifle the transition to cleaner energy, as utility executives lobby to delay the retirement of fossil fuel plants and bring more online.

Regulators will do anything to alleviate the crisis except anything that might work.

BIDENOMICS IS WORKING: US salaries are falling. Employers say compensation is just ‘resetting.’

The tightening labour market has left US workers with fewer options than just years earlier. Beginning 2020, employers boosted salaries to new heights to attract talent to a deluge of open roles. But amid an uncertain economy, employers have pulled back from new hires and cut jobs.

“There is now less competition to hire workers – and therefore less need to boost wages,” says Nick Bunker, US-based director of North American Economic Research at Indeed. “Job postings have dropped quite a bit, while the supply of workers has grown.”

Previously: Jared Bernstein, member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors: “One thing we learned in the 1990s was that a surefire way to reconnect the fortunes of working people at all skill levels, immigrant and native-born alike, to the growing economy is to let the job market tighten up. A tight job market pressures employers to boost wage offers to get and keep the workers they need. One equally surefire way to sort-circuit this useful dynamic is to turn on the immigrant spigot every time some group’s wages go up.”