Author Archive: Stephen Green

I’M GUESSING IT’S THE COVERUP AND THE CRIME:

That the mainstream media has gotten so blatant about being the state’s willing tool makes me wonder if they’re confident in their untouchability or just foolish.

THE FED HAS A JOB TO DO; WE HAVE A PROBLEM: The ‘supercore’ inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands.

A hotter-than-expected consumer price index report rattled Wall Street Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a measure of underlying prices.

Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.

Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said if you take the readings of the last three months and annualize them, you’re looking at a supercore inflation rate of more than 8%, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

“As we sit here today, I think they’re probably pulling their hair out,” Fitzpatrick said.

But, hey, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has his priorities:

GLUT: EV prices drop up to 20% as new and used inventory surges. “Searches for new EVs on cars.com were up 14.9 percent year over year (14.7 percent month over month). And there are many more cars for buyers to pick from, with 107.7 percent more inventory than in March 2023 (or 8.8 percent more than this February). Those EVs are hanging around on lots longer than dealers might like, with an average of 91 days of inventory—the industry prefers to keep less than 60 days of inventory on hand and averaged 65 days for March 2024.”

WE USED TO BE A PROPER COUNTRY:

If the Soviets had made it to the Moon, it looks like we weren’t going to put up with any of their crap.

HMM: The Film ‘Civil War’ Is Not Entirely What You Think It Is.

[Writer/director] Gartland, who’s English and whose work has included “Ex Machina” and “28 Days Later,” has a subtle eye and a quirky sense of drama. He never answers the question of how the war began or who the “good guys” are. The film opens with a news announcer saying that 19 states have seceded including Texas and California, which have formed themselves into the “WA|” or Western Alliance.

Yes, Texas and California are on the same side. As I mentioned, don’t apply your own personal political views to this film. If you do, you’ll miss the point. The film uses the “Civil War” as a backdrop to explain and expand on journalistic ethics.

The cast is made up mostly of B-list actors, with some familiar character actors. Reviews so far have been mixed largely because of frustration with Garland’s refusal to take a side or give much context to the fighting of the war.

Last week, I praised the trailer for being surprisingly apolitical, so it’s nice to see that maybe the movie delivers on that promise.

But there’s also this warning from Christian Toto:

For Hollywood, it’s always 1973 and the noble journalists are always just about to take down the evil, warmonger president.

Assuming he’s a Republican, of course.

BIDENFLATION: ‘Serious possibility’ that Fed’s next rate move is a hike, warns Larry Summers.

That’s economist and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers highlighting the possibility that the Federal Reserve may not only have difficulty delivering previously expected interest-rate cuts, but could have yet to deliver its final rate hike of the current cycle.

Summers’ remarks, in an interview Wednesday with Bloomberg Television, came after the March consumer-price index showed a hotter-than-expected inflation reading for both the headline figure and the core rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices.

Summers said that while circumstances can change between now and June, the current facts would make a June rate cut seem “a dangerous and egregious error comparable to the errors the Fed was making in the summer of 2021,” when policy makers left rate hikes on hold amid expectations that rising inflationary pressures would prove transitory.

For what it’s worth, Summers was the first — and to my recollection, only — big-name Democrat to warn three years ago that inflation was coming.

I’M PLEASANTLY SURPRISED THAT NBC PUT “HEROIC” IN THE HEADLINE: Idaho woman, 85, fatally shot home intruder in ‘heroic’ act of self-defense.

An 85-year-old Idaho woman shot and killed an intruder in her home in what a county prosecutor called “one of the most heroic acts of self-preservation I have ever heard of.”

Bingham County Prosecutor Ryan Jolley said in a case review that the woman, identified Wednesday as Christine Jenneiahn, acted in self-defense and ruled it was a case of justifiable homicide.

“That Christine survived this encounter is truly incredible,” Jolley wrote. “Her grit, determination, and will to live appear to be what saved her that night.”

Well, that and her .357 Magnum.

THERE’S GOLD IN THEM THAR CARTS: Costco selling $200 million in gold bars per month, says analyst.

An analyst note from Wells Fargo estimates sales of the company’s gold bars currently account for between $100 million and $200 million per month. Sales of the one-ounce bars, which are made of 24-karat gold began last October. The bars sell for about $2,000 each.

While the revenue numbers are significant, the research note suggests profits from these sales are low, at best. The real value, it says, is in how the price reinforces Costco’s value position. (The spot price of an ounce of gold, as of 11:15 a.m. Wednesday morning, stood at $2,332.)

It is, in one way, a high-end version of the company’s rotisserie chicken—a way to attract customer attention.

It couldn’t come at a better time, either. Gold has been on something of a rocket ride this year as the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve look increasingly dim. Year to date, prices are up 13% (versus just an 8.6% increase in the S&P 500).

Just remember that gold bars aren’t a productive investment, but a hedge against government stupidity — and one that I can’t recall ever being sold in a big box chain store.

CHANGE: Highly Skilled Professionals Want Your Work But Not Your Job. “At almost every company we talk with, managers are facing the same recruiting challenge. They simply do not have the talent they need in-house, and they’re unable to persuade highly skilled professionals to come on board full-time. As a result, companies are embracing the freelance model more than ever before. ‘To stay competitive in our manufacturing, digital, and veterinary services,’ says Michele Cefola, the global vice president of talent acquisition at Mars, ‘we must continually attract people with the latest skill sets.’ This is particularly true for tech and digital experts, her colleague Jeremy Andrulis, the vice president of talent, told us. ‘And people with the most sought-after skills are more than likely to be freelancers.’ He went on to explain why this works for Mars: ‘Freelancers tend to jump from one project to another. That’s essentially what we’re paying for—their accumulated experiences and the fresh external perspectives they bring.'”

SEAN TRENDE: Will Black Voters Back Republicans? A Political Science Perspective.

At this point, there’s not much dispute that polling shows a substantial swing vis-à-vis 2020, which is particularly strong among minority voters. Horse-race polls in the 2024 rematch typically show Donald Trump attracting in the neighborhood of 20% of the black vote, which would be a historically strong showing.

Some want to dismiss these findings. I’m certainly surprised by and even a bit skeptical about them. After all, neither Ronald Reagan nor Richard Nixon had won anything approaching 20% of the black vote during their landslide reelection victories. To see Trump winning the largest share of the black vote since Richard Nixon in 1960 is jarring, to say the least.

At the same time, whenever you find yourself questioning a poll result – much less repeated poll results – you should ask yourself, “Why do we read polls in the first place?” If we’re going to be dismissive of findings that contradict even strongly held prior assumptions, there really isn’t much use for this kind of social science. That doesn’t mean you abandon prior views instantly in the face of contrary evidence, but rather that an effort should be made to incorporate the data into those views. And as the data mounts, those views should gradually shift.

Which brings us to White and Laird. The fundamental question that they ask themselves can be summarized as this: Why, when around one-third of black voters self-describe as “conservative,” do blacks still give upwards of 90% of their votes to the liberal party? As the authors demonstrate, this isn’t just a matter of black voters defining “conservative” in a different light than white voters. Across a variety of issues – including some racial issues – a large portion of the African American electorate is conventionally conservative.

White and Laird aren’t the first to consider this question. They look at previous theories – including that black voters share a sense of linked fate, or that they simply view themselves as a part of a “team” – and find them insufficient. Instead, they offer a theory they call “racialized social constraint.”

Read the whole thing.

I’d just add that I believe Republicans could earn more black votes, if more Republicans — aside from just Donald Trump, that is — would do the campaigning necessary to earn them.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: RFK Jr.’s X Factor Cred Is Picking Up Some Steam. “Near the end of the Briefing the morning after the announcement I said that I hoped that Kennedy would continue ‘to be a mild source of dyspepsia for the Biden administration.’ They’re already popping Prilosec like crazy over on Team Biden whenever they’re waiting to see what drunken Klingon dialect he’s going to speak during a public appearance.”

YOU DON’T SAY: Iran Smuggles Arms to West Bank, Officials Say, to Foment Unrest With Israel.

Iran is operating a clandestine smuggling route across the Middle East, employing intelligence operatives, militants and criminal gangs, to deliver weapons to Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, according to officials from the United States, Israel and Iran.

The goal, as described by three Iranian officials, is to foment unrest against Israel by flooding the enclave with as many weapons as it can.

The covert operation is now heightening concerns that Tehran is seeking to turn the West Bank into the next flashpoint in the long-simmering shadow war between Israel and Iran. That conflict has taken on new urgency this month, risking a broader conflict in the Middle East, as Iran vowed to retaliate for an Israeli strike on an embassy compound that killed seven Iranian armed forces commanders.

Many weapons smuggled to the West Bank largely travel along two paths from Iran through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel, the officials said. As the arms cross borders, the officials added, they change hands among a multinational cast that can include members of organized criminal gangs, extremist militants, soldiers and intelligence operatives. A key group in the operation, the Iranian officials and analysts said, are Bedouin smugglers who carry the weapons across the border from Jordan into Israel.

I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the endless “humanitarian relief” supplies allowed directly into Gaza provide even more cover.