WOW: US home prices have soared 47% since 2020.

Despite mortgage rates skyrocketing to around 7%, double what they were at the peak of the pandemic, home prices refuse to plateau.

That’s due the insatiable appetite for housing coupled with a crippling shortage in supply.

“Because the Fed kept rates too low for too long during the pandemic, listing inventory was essentially wiped off the map, keeping prices rising sharply despite the surge in mortgage rates,” appraiser Jonathan Miller told The Post. “Would-be home sellers that bought or refinanced at a 2.5% to 4% rate during the pandemic became trapped due to the lock-in effect. They became reluctant to list their homes because, as new buyers, they would get a lot less for their money because of the much higher mortgage rates. The way out of this appears to be to hope for a drop in mortgage rates, but that could take years.”

To put things in perspective, the median US home sale price hit $420,800 in the first quarter of this year. Compare that to a modest $327,100 at the beginning of the decade. It was $124,800 at the dawn of the ’90s.

Lance Lambert, co-founder of ResiClub, says housing price growth in the first 50 months of this decade has outpaced not just one, but the last three decades combined.

I’d hate to be a young couple trying to buy a first house and start a family.

Related? Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed. “In the U.S., a short-lived pandemic baby boomlet has reversed. The total fertility rate fell to 1.62 last year, according to provisional government figures, the lowest on record.”

Unaffordable housing is far from the only reason young people aren’t having enough kids but it’s on the list.

HMM: Michael Cohen Just Blew Up Bragg’s Case Against Trump.

SETH MANDEL: Lifting Hamas’s ‘Fog of War’ Reveals a Very Different Conflict.

The United Nations has announced that the Gaza casualty figures it has been using are bogus and it is adjusting its figures downward.

“The revisions are taken … you know, of course, in the fog of war, it’s difficult to come up with numbers,” UN spokesman Farhan Haq said at a press briefing in response to a question from JNS. “We get numbers from different sources on the ground, and then we try to cross check them. As we cross check them, we update the numbers, and we’ll continue to do that as that progresses.”

Ah yes, the fog of war. In fact, the change is due to the fact that the UN has decided to report only “identified” casualties and exclude “unidentified” casualties. Because Hamas uses media reports—itself a gauzy category which includes Hamas-aligned press fronts—to add to its “unidentified” category, there is no excuse for reporting those in the “unidentified” category at all.

If only there’d been a way to know not to trust the numbers coming directly from Hamas.

And what are those numbers? Now the UN says about half of its original estimate of women and of children can be disregarded, bringing those totals to about 7,800 and 5,000 respectively. That brings the total number of Palestinian fatalities down by over 11,000, nearly a third of the commonly reported total.

And that’s not all. The Palestinian statistical agencies are famous for using “under 20” as their marker for separating children and adults. That means among the “children” are likely a number of 18- and 19-year-olds (i.e. not children). Additionally, we know the IDF encounters 16- and 17-year-old militants in the field, meaning a chunk of the “children” are actually combatants. And of course Hamas makes no distinction between combatants and civilians when counting the casualties.

It’s possible, then—perhaps even likely—that the IDF has achieved a civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio of around 1.5-1, an unheard-of level of precision and civilian protection in urban warfare.

Everything Hamas does boils down to three things: lying, murder, and lying about murder.

MEANWHILE, OVER AT VODKAPUNDIT [VIP]: ‘Rotary Hunger Strikes,’ AYFKM?

TRADING IN THE 21ST CENTURY: GameStop stock soars over 70% as ‘Roaring Kitty’ revival reignites meme-stock bonanza.

EXCUSES: The Dog Ate Harry and Meghan’s Archewell Foundation Homework. “Even before all of this odd news, Archewell hadn’t been doing very well.”

LIFE IN JOE BIDEN’S AMERICA: Dining out is increasingly a domain of the wealthy. Restaurants are feeling it.

What’s for dinner? For an increasing number of Americans, especially households making less than $150,000 a year, the answer doesn’t involve going to a restaurant. And when people do go out to eat, they are spending less money.

Battered by higher-than-normal food prices, some consumers are pulling back on their spending — and restaurants are feeling the effects.

Dine Brands Global Inc. DIN, +0.32%, the owner of the pancake chain IHOP and restaurant chain Applebee’s, said in its earnings call Wednesday that fewer consumers earning $50,000 a year and below visited its restaurants in the past quarter. Even when they do, they are “more aggressively” managing the amount they spend, Dine Brands CEO John Peyton told investors.

Although some higher-income guests have traded down to eat at the company’s cheaper restaurants, behavioral changes are most pronounced among lower-income consumers, he said. “[T]he most impactful change in consumer behavior is clearly the $50,000 and below segment,” Peyton said on the call. Dine Brands Global did not immediately respond to MarketWatch’s request for comment.

While lower-income Americans are dining out less — even at fast-food restaurants — higher-income Americans are dining out more.

I’m so old, I remember when Biden promised to build prosperity from “the bottom up and the middle out.”

LINCOLN BROWN: Justice Alito Has a Stark Warning for College Grads. “Right now in the world outside this beautiful campus, troubled waters are slamming against some of our most fundamental principles. Support for freedom of speech is declining dangerously. Very few colleges live up to that ideal. This place is one of them … but things are not that way out there in the broader world.”

THE NEW SPACE RACE: Air Force is “growing concerned” about the pace of Vulcan rocket launches.

It has been nearly four years since the US Air Force made its selections for companies to launch military payloads during the mid-2020s. The military chose United Launch Alliance, and its Vulcan rocket, to launch 60 percent of these missions; and it chose SpaceX, with the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters, to launch 40 percent.

Although the large Vulcan rocket was still in development at the time, it was expected to take flight within the next year or so. Upon making the award, an Air Force official said the military believed Vulcan would soon be ready to take flight. United Launch Alliance was developing the Vulcan rocket in order to no longer be reliant on RD-180 engines that are built in Russia and used by its Atlas V rocket.

“I am very confident with the selection that we have made today,” William Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics, said at the time. “We have a very low-risk path to get off the RD-180 engines.”

As part of the announcement, Roper disclosed the first two missions that would fly on Vulcan. The USSF-51 mission was scheduled for launch in the first quarter of 2022, and the USSF-106 mission was scheduled for launch in the third quarter of 2022.

It turned out to not be such a low-risk path. The Vulcan rocket’s development, of course, has since been delayed. It did not make its debut in 2020 or 2021 and only finally took flight in January of this year. The mission was completely successful— an impressive feat for a new rocket with new engines — but United Launch Alliance still must complete a second flight before the US military certifies Vulcan for its payloads.

This is on the Air Force for planning 60% of their missions on a non-reusable rocket that had never flown when the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy were flight-proven.

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK: $7.5 Billion Later, Biden Is Up to 7 EV Charging Stations. “My back-of-the-envelope math also indicates that building seven stations every two years will get us to Biden’s goal of 500,000 no later than the year 144,881 AD. Assuming we’re still using AD by then.”

DISPATCHES FROM THE BLUE ZONES: Teen gunman who ‘sprayed DC neighborhood with 26 rounds from an AR-15’ is released on bail by self-confessed ‘woke’ judge.

Judge Lloyd U. Nolan Jr., a self-described ‘woke’ magistrate judge on the Superior Court of the District of Columbia, ruled that Amonte Moody, 18, be released on bail ahead of his trial.

The 18-year-old allegedly peppered a street with 26 rounds while targeting a car of four people at 2:30am on April 22, with Ring doorbell footage capturing a suspect shooting wildly from the hip with the assault rifle.

Nobody was injured or killed in the shooting spree, which unfolded just over a mile from the US Capitol. Despite the chaos he allegedly caused, Nolan granted Moody pre-trial release and home arrest.

After his decision raised eyebrows, Fox News reported that his online presence included a post where he said he was ‘still woke’, and another where he donated to a fundraiser supporting a George Soros-backed professor.

Plus: “Judge Nolan conducted a very thorough hearing … and spoke directly with defendant about the consequences of violating any portion of the release conditions.”

A good talking to is what bullet-spraying teens need.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): “Gun violence” is the most serious problem facing America and must be dealt with with a heavy hand — unless it’s perpetrated by members of Approved Democratic Party Constituency Groups.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Contemplating the Wussification of Americans. “While I’m all for life being easier in the sense that we don’t have to worry about polio or defecate in a bucket, I’ve found myself contemplating the conveniences that have led us to trade in our bootstraps for slip-on fashion sneakers.”

POSITIVELY TRUMPIAN: Joe Biden will double, triple and quadruple tariffs on some Chinese goods, with EV duties jumping to 102.5% from 27.5%.

Biden will hike or add tariffs in key sectors after nearly two years of review. The total tariff on Chinese electric vehicles will rise to 102.5% from 27.5%, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity ahead of the announcement. Others will double or triple in targeted industries, though the scope remains unclear.

Biden and his staff spent recent weeks finalizing the measures, including which items to hit and which to avoid because the inputs are needed to fuel American growth, one of the people said. The final decision was a consensus, the person said.

It’s not clear which items were spared but Biden won’t announce tariff rate reductions, two of the people said. The administration has signaled to the US solar industry that it’ll move to exclude some items, including machinery used to make solar panel components. The shift has been sought by some equipment makers who say current levies undermine Biden’s goal of wresting clean-energy supply chains from China.

The 2024 presidential race looms large over the flagship announcement: Biden is trying to crack down on China and differentiate himself from Donald Trump — whose original tariffs Biden is set to largely renew, but who is seeking widespread hikes that the current administration views as going too far.

As I recall, it was the end of the world when Trump imposed his smaller tariffs so it’s nice to know that when Biden doubles or triples them it’s no big deal.

ANALYSIS: TRUE. Jerry Seinfeld Is the Hero We Need Right Now.

THE COMMERICAL REAL ESTATE COLLAPSE HASN’T LET UP: Fort Worth’s tallest building sells for just $12.3M at auction in stunning price drop.

Burnett Plaza, the tallest building in Fort Worth, Texas, has been purchased via foreclosure auction for $12.3 million just three years after it was sold for more than $137.5 million, according to the Dallas Business Journal.

The 40-story behemoth was bought back by Pinnacle Bank Texas in the auction held on the steps of the Tarrant County courthouse on Tuesday.

Pinnacle had claimed in public filings that the tower’s former owner, Burnett Cherry Street LLC, an affiliate of New York-based Opal Holdings LLC, defaulted on a $13 million loan used to purchase the building in 2021.

The bank bought it back with a roughly $12.3 million credit bid, just $12.30 per square foot.

That’s still better than the second-tallest building in St. Louis, the former One AT&T Center, which sold last month for about $2.50 per square foot.

IT’S NICE TO BE NOTICED: The Left Hates Us So Much That We’re Now on an ‘Enemies List.’

FINALLY, SOME GOOD NEWS FROM COLORADO: To-go alcohol to be a permanent part of restaurant takeout.

THE NEW SPACE RACE: China’s Chang’e-6 is carrying a surprise rover to the moon. “This is not the first time a Chinese mission has harbored hidden spacecraft.”

VICTORIA TAFT: Serial Perjurer Michael Cohen Testifies for the Prosecution in Trump NYC Trial.

BUSINESS INSIDER: Trump leads his supporters in vulgar chants at Jersey Shore rally.

But this headline much better captures the spirit of the rally: Trump At Rally: ‘Everything They Touch Turns To What?’ Cheering Crowd: ‘SH*T.’

The Biden cabal has the Merde Touch.

UPDATE (From Ed):

Great to see the adults are back in charge. Norms reestablished.

— Steve (@sjbftmlsc) May 13, 2024

LIES, DAMNED LIES, AND THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS: How Much for a Cup of Joe? Washington Doesn’t Want You to Know.

SKYNET SLYLY SMILES: AI has already figured out how to deceive humans.

A range of AI systems have learned techniques to systematically induce “false beliefs in others to accomplish some outcome other than the truth,” according to a new research paper.

The paper focused on two types of AI systems: special-use systems like Meta’s CICERO, which are designed to complete a specific task, and general-purpose systems like OpenAI’s GPT-4, which are trained to perform a diverse range of tasks.

While these systems are trained to be honest, they often learn deceptive tricks through their training because they can be more effective than taking the high road.

“Generally speaking, we think AI deception arises because a deception-based strategy turned out to be the best way to perform well at the given AI’s training task. Deception helps them achieve their goals,” the paper’s first author Peter S. Park, an AI existential safety postdoctoral fellow at MIT, said in a news release.

Of course, AI is also just stupid… unless that’s what it wants us to believe.

AI will replace you

the AI in question pic.twitter.com/Ncc5kjUt2U

— Strawbærry Narwhal ‽ (@unvarnishedvoid) May 12, 2024

Related? Air Canada Has to Honor a Refund Policy Its Chatbot Made Up.

A COUPLE OF THEM, ACTUALLY: The Dirty Little Secret Behind Jen Psaki’s Memoir (and Most Every Other D.C. Book). “Books their authors didn’t write bought in bulk with other people’s money to end up in landfills is maybe the most Washington thing ever.”

THE NEW SPACE RACE: SpaceX vying for 2 Starship launch sites in Florida, sealing Starbase’s fate as R&D, production site.

On Friday, the Federal Aviation Administration said it’s conducting an Environmental Impact Study of the effects of as many as 44 Starship launches per year from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. It follows the U.S. Space Force earlier this year starting such a study of the potential effects of Starship operations at sites on Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

During an update last month at Starbase, SpaceX CEO Musk reiterated his vision for Starbase as a research, development, test and production site — with operational launches from Florida.

“I think what we should probably expect is that we do the kind of the development launches here” at Starbase, he said. “Test anything new here, build the rockets and then most of the operational launches would be from the Cape.”

And speaking of tests: Musk sees fourth flight of SpaceX’s Starship in 3-5 weeks.

YUGE: CNN’s Fareed Zakaria Admits It’s Unlikely Biden Can Win the Election.