I’M TEMPTED TO SUBMIT MY NAME: Elon and Vivek’s ‘DOGE’ Looks for ‘Small-Government Revolutionaries.’

ARTIFICIAL EVERYTHING: Is everybody cheating? “A few weeks ago, she emailed a student to say that she knew the student had cheated on a minor assignment with AI and if she did it again, she would fail the course. Clukey also noted there were several missed assignments. The student replied to ‘sincerely apologize,’ said she was ‘committed to getting back on track,’ and that she regretted ‘any disruption [her] absence or incomplete work may have caused in the course.’ But her next paper was essentially written by artificial intelligence. Curious, Clukey asked ChatGPT to write an email apologizing to a professor for plagiarism and missed work. . . ‘It spit out an email almost exactly like the one I had gotten.'”

FLORIDA MAN FRIDAY [VIP]: From ‘Fast & Furious’ to ‘Stopped & Humiliated.’ “It’s time for your much-needed break from the serious news and this week Florida Man went full “Miami Blues,” Florida Woman’s Corvette theft gone wrong, and Michigan Man’s attempted lawnmower murder.”

WINNING: Hands off our Gas Stove: Washington Voters Approve Initiative 2066. “The successful passage of the measure will protect families and businesses against state or local restrictions or disincentives affecting natural gas.”

Go on and take the red pill, Washington.

THE CONSPIRACY THEORIES HAVE BEEN FLYING FAST AND FURIOUSLY: In This the Real Reason Why Trump Nominated Matt Gaetz for Attorney General?

CHICAGO: City Council Votes Unanimously to Reject Mayor’s $300M Property Tax Hike Proposal. “Because the City Council is nearly certain to raise property taxes by at least $45 million to allow it levy taxes on newly constructed homes and commercial properties, it is a symbolic vote to reject the property tax hike proposed by Johnson, which would have been the largest increase since 2016 and the second largest in Chicago history.”

I’D SAY, “MORE LIKE THIS, PLEASE,” BUT THERE’S ALREADY MUCH MORE OF THIS ON THE WAY: Thousands of ICE Officers Will Be Reassigned From Desk Jobs to Field Work.

YES:

An observation I’ve made before is that people tend to think that the eventual expiration of the boomer generation will be a win for progressives, but I think we’re actually in the very early days of people noticing that these terms no longer have meaning. The default boomer… https://t.co/SWe9oSUlNx

— wanye (@wanyeburkett) November 15, 2024

Anecdotally, my teenage sons and their friends seem immune to this stuff.

A MILLION DOLLARS FOR OPRAH, NOT ONE DIME FOR SUBWAY: Let Them Eat ‘Prison Sandwiches’: Is This Why Kamala Lost Wisconsin?

THERE’S STILL PLENTY OF BIDENFLATION BAKED INTO THE SYSTEM: Rising US producer prices add to signs of fading disinflation.

MEGAN FOX: Being a Good Winner Doesn’t Include Cancel Mobs. “Going viral on X isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. It happened to me this week, and I think I’d rather it hadn’t. Let me explain.”

ABOUT TIME: Poland Opens Long-Awaited US Missile Base.

Polish and American officials on Wednesday opened a US missile base in northern Poland originally intended to defend the West against threats from the Middle East, but now aimed at confronting Russia.

The Redzikowo base, 230 kilometers (143 miles) from the Russian border, has been operational since July but was officially inaugurated only on Wednesday.

“A US destroyer on Polish soil has become a fact,” Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said at the ribbon-cutting ceremony, describing it as “of historical importance for the security of Poland, the United States and NATO.”

“Through the conflicts which are ongoing right now, the conflict in Ukraine or in the Middle East, we can see how important air defence and missile defence is,” he added.

First announced in 2009, the project was plagued by delays, and Russia has since emerged as the main security concern for the military alliance’s eastern flank.

NATO chief Mark Rutte told reporters in Warsaw the base “significantly enhances our ability to defend against the growing threat of ballistic missiles from outside the Euro-Atlantic area.”

Despite NATO stating that the Redzikowo facility and a similar system in Romania are purely defensive, Moscow has frequently labeled it a threat.

Any tool that might blunt Moscow’s aggression, no matter how benign, is a “threat.”

BUT ALL THE BEST PEOPLE TOLD ME IRAN HAD SUSPENDED ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS RESEARCH: Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program Took a Yuge Hit. “What’s interesting is that Israel knew about a nuclear weapons research facility that most of the Iranian government did not.”

SKYNET FROWNS: What if AI doesn’t just keep getting better forever?

On Monday, OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever, who left the company earlier this year, added to the concerns that LLMs were hitting a plateau in what can be gained from traditional pre-training. Sutskever told Reuters that “the 2010s were the age of scaling,” where throwing additional computing resources and training data at the same basic training methods could lead to impressive improvements in subsequent models.

“Now we’re back in the age of wonder and discovery once again,” Sutskever told Reuters. “Everyone is looking for the next thing. Scaling the right thing matters more now than ever.”

What’s next?

A large part of the training problem, according to experts and insiders cited in these and other pieces, is a lack of new, quality textual data for new LLMs to train on. At this point, model makers may have already picked the lowest hanging fruit from the vast troves of text available on the public Internet and published books.

Research outfit Epoch AI tried to quantify this problem in a paper earlier this year, measuring the rate of increase in LLM training data sets against the “estimated stock of human-generated public text.” After analyzing those trends, the researchers estimate that “language models will fully utilize this stock [of human-generated public text] between 2026 and 2032,” leaving precious little runway for just throwing more training data at the problem.

Folks, you need to get busy creating more real content for AI to learn how to generate more fake content.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Here’s Hoping the Dems’ Cluelessness About the Election Lingers. “As part of my ongoing indulgence in post-election joy (couldn’t resist), I have been poring over the various election reflections that Democrats have been engaging in since the night of November 5. At times, it almost seems that I’ve illicitly gotten my hands on a psychiatrist’s notes. Prior to the election, I frequently said that the Democrats were mentally unwell. They’re really struggling now.”

RUY TEIXEIRA: Farewell to the ‘Rising American Electorate.’

At one point in the initial rollout of Harris’s campaign, there was much happy (joyful?) talk of getting the band back together—the return of the mighty Obama coalition. The “rising American electorate” would have its revenge on Trump, the Republicans, and their retrograde supporters from declining demographics.

That’s not exactly how it worked out. Instead, Trump won every swing state and the election, carried the national popular vote and made dramatic headway among key demographics that were supposed to buoy the rising American electorate. In short, the rising American electorate didn’t rise, it crashed.

As Democrats dig out from their debacle, it’s important for them to understand just how far away they now are from the salad days of the Obama coalition. In 12 short years, they have lost two of three elections to Donald Trump and huge chunks of support from key demographics, including most of their rising constituencies. They need to face the uncomfortable fact that not only did the Obama coalition not come back, it’s likely never coming back. It’s time for a new coalitional strategy—a strategy that starts with rebuilding their support among working-class Americans of all races and forcefully jettisoning all the political baggage that is preventing them from doing so.

Democrats probably won’t stay crazy forever but I’d remind Ruy that Biden ran as a “sane” moderate in 2020 — then offered nothing but encouragement to the most radical elements of his party after the election.

MEANWHILE, OVER AT VOKDAPUNDIT [VIP]: Mission: Possible — Turning Trump Voters Into Republican Voters. “Good afternoon, Mr. Phelps. Our country just experienced a once-in-a-generation election in which new, independent, and crossover voters decided the election for Donald Trump. Your mission, should you choose to accept it: turn these low-propensity Trump voters into reliable Republican voters.”

VIP members asked for more long-form pieces and I’ve been happy to oblige.

MIDDLE EAST: Hamas ready for Gaza ceasefire ‘immediately’ – but claims Israel has put forward no ‘serious proposals’ in months.

Hamas says it is ready to secure a Gaza ceasefire deal “immediately” but claims it has not had any “serious proposals” from Israel in months, an official for the group has told Sky News.

Dr Basem Naim also suggested Hamas has no regrets about the 7 October attacks which killed 1,200 Israelis last year, despite the ensuing war in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.

He accused Israel of “big massacres” in Gaza and said Hamas has not received any “serious proposals” for a ceasefire since the assassination of its leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Appearing on The World With Yalda Hakim, he said the last “well-defined, brokered deal” was on 2 July.

“It was discussed in all details and I think we were near to a ceasefire… which can end this war, offer a permanent ceasefire and total withdrawal and prisoner exchange.

“Unfortunately [Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu preferred to go the other way,” Dr Naim said.

Left unsaid: Israel offered a ceasefire months ago if Hamas would release the hostages. Hamas would rather have war than peace and so war is what they’re getting.

JUST BECAUSE HE’S A COMMIE DOESN’T MEAN HE ISN’T A SHARP OPERATOR: Bernie Sanders Is the Only One Who Gets It Right in NY Times Election Post Mortem.

MEANWHILE, OVER AT VOKDAPUNDIT [VIP]: Mission: Possible — Turning Trump Voters Into Republican Voters. “Good afternoon, Mr. Phelps. Our country just experienced a once-in-a-generation election in which new, independent, and crossover voters decided the election for Donald Trump. Your mission, should you choose to accept it: turn these low-propensity Trump voters into reliable Republican voters.”

VIP members asked for more long-form pieces and I’ve been happy to oblige.

THE LEFT’S DEMAND FOR RACIAL HATE STILL GREATLY OUTSTRIPS SUPPLY:

BREAKING: Colorado AG indicted 3 people for staging a fake racial hate crime in 2023 in which they defaced a campaign sign for then Colorado Springs Mayoral candidate Yemi Mobolade, who is Black.

The hoaxers reportedly claimed in text messages that they carried out the hoax in… pic.twitter.com/l3qovXQywE

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 14, 2024

Developing…

Corrected and bumped: This is a federal indictment, not local.

BREAKING: Trump Picks RFK Jr. for Key Role in His Administration.

A POINT OF PRIDE: Big Endorsement: Disgraced Deep Stater Says Gaetz ‘Couldn’t Get Hired by the FBI.’

THAT WOULD BE A REAL SHAME:

This seems like a ploy to make the current crop quit. https://t.co/Qf7oSc9prA

— Brandon Morse (@TheBrandonMorse) November 14, 2024

I’m not sure whether shows like The View are a cause or a symptom of the mental health crisis among lefty American women, but I suspect it’s both.

SOME SMALL MEASURE OF TRUTHFULNESS AT WAPO? Pelosi’s Latest Big Lie Is Too Much Even for the Washington Post.