Author Archive: Stephen Green

SQUEEZE HARDER: Iran’s Negotiating Position Gets Worse and Worse.

The U.S. and its allies in the Middle East want to ensure that Iran won’t build nuclear weapons; Iran wants to gain relief from harsh U.S.-led economic sanctions and avoid potential Israeli or American military strikes on its nuclear sites. Until recently, Khamenei was unwilling to consider making the concessions necessary for an agreement. But the pressure on Khamenei’s regime—both external and domestic—has grown to the point that he had no choice but to retreat.

During the past year, Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, a coalition of pro-Tehran militias across the Middle East, has been crushed by Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Hezbollah and American strikes on Yemen’s Houthis. The Syrian revolution that brought down Bashar al-Assad, Khamenei’s close ally, further eroded the Iranian leader’s strategy of “forward defense”—which is to say, relying on its Arab proxies to keep its adversaries away from the homeland. Meanwhile, Trump has also bolstered America’s presence in the Persian Gulf, suggesting to Khamenei that military attacks on Iranian soil are the most likely alternative to negotiations.

Inside Iran, public discontent with the regime’s political repression and economic mismanagement has grown. Many in the Iranian establishment are making ever more explicit demands for an end to their country’s isolation.

In a remarkable display of elite dissatisfaction, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri, commemorated the Iranian New Year holidays earlier this month by shooting a video message outside Persepolis, the seat of the First Persian Empire, which dates back to the sixth century B.C.E. Bagheri expressed hope that Iran could follow “the same ideals” he had witnessed in the ancient monument: “peace, calm, friendship, and brotherhood with other nations.” Such a statement from Iran’s top soldier was unprecedented.

Was that message tacitly approved by Khamenei or is Iran’s regular military (not the Revolutionary Guard) sending a message of its own?

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Dems Are So Desperate They Pulled Biden Out From Under the Bus. “The MSM lap dogs’ coverage of the speech was a prime example of the Left’s ability to forget recent history when it’s inconvenient for them. After months of blaming Biden for Kamala Harris’s defeat and giving unquestioning, glowing reviews to books about his mental decline written by members of their own ranks, they decided that he was A-OK again.”

CDR SALAMANDER: Kendall, NGAD, & the Acquisition Mindset that Must Go.

Why did we build LCS around the never-was-has-been NLOS? Why do we have three white elephants in the fleet? Why, four decades after the end of the Cold War, are all our tactical aircraft derived from Cold War era designs? Why, when we find ourselves needing the ability for submarines to be able to lay mines and fire anti-ship cruise missiles, the submarines that we have in production can do neither?

Simple, a mindset. A self-destructive mindset that not only thinks it knows what the future is, it is terrified into paralysis to do anything to prepare for it today. If you take arrogance and blend it with insecurity, you about have it.

The US military can be a learning institution. The US Navy and USAF years ago decided to part ways for their next fighter aircraft. In a way, it is a confession of what most will admit in hushed tones: we don’t want a repeat of the less-than-optimal result from the F-35A/B/C. In the end analysis, the product was the result of a cascading series of compromises that begat the flawed but still pretty good.

We were lucky in that history gave us a bit of a holiday from serious competition.

The holiday is over — and do read the whole thing.

JUSTICE, KREMLIN STYLE: Four Russian journalists linked to late Kremlin critic Navalny sentenced at Moscow court.

Four journalists linked to the late Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny were sentenced to spend five years and six months in a penal colony on Tuesday, after they were accused of working for a banned organization run by the Kremlin critic, Russian state media TASS has reported.

The reporters – Antonina Favorskaya, Sergei Karelin, Konstantin Gabov and Artem Kriger – have been on trial behind closed doors since October on charges, which they deny, of belonging to an “extremist” group established by Navalny in 2011.

Prosecutors claimed the four had produced material for the YouTube channel of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), according to Reuters, which is prohibited under the country’s “foreign agents law.” Amnesty International has warned that the “repressive” legislation is an “attack on freedom of association” in Russia, where Moscow has increasingly attempted to stifle journalists under censorship laws.

In February, mourners gathered at Navalny’s graveside in the Russian capital to mark the first anniversary of his death in prison. Dozens of people were detained at memorials, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW) and other rights groups.

Over his storied political career, Navalny generated some of the largest anti-government demonstrations in recent years, and unfurled corruption at Russia’s highest seat of power, under the FBK.

Navalny died suddenly at the age of 47 on February 16, 2024, while serving a 19-year sentence on extremism charges he denied. At the time, Russia’s prison service claimed he “felt unwell after a walk.”

It’s a shame that groups like Amnesty blew their credibility by endorsing every leftwing cause, embracing TDS, etc because it detracts from when they try to shed light on authoritarian abuses like the Kremlin’s.

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, MOVE ALONG:

Tell your lefty friends that either Patriot Front was feds or that Trump scared the fascists into hiding.

THE SKY’S A LIMIT: No man’s airspace: Why our skies aren’t ready for the space boom. “Private spaceflight is booming. Companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin and Rocket Lab are launching rockets at a cadence unimaginable a decade ago. In 2025, the FAA expects up to 172 commercial space launches — a number expected to more than double by 2028. Each launch forces air traffic controllers to carve out huge chunks of restricted airspace, often for hours, to ensure no aircraft strays near a rocket’s path. Even when missions go perfectly, these precautionary no-fly zones can disrupt hundreds of airline flights and congest the busy highways in the sky. During one routine Delta II rocket launch from Cape Canaveral, for example, 56 flights had to be rerouted roughly 65 nautical miles each — adding over 3,600 miles of total detours. What used to be an occasional NASA shuttle launch is now weekly private missions, and what was once a minor nuisance for air travel could soon become a major choke point. The convergence of air traffic and space traffic is creating a new kind of traffic jam, and it’s one with high stakes for safety and commerce alike.”

NOT JUST NO BUT HELL NO:

Well, maybe if the bailout hinged on federally-supervised elections for the next few cycles…

THEY’RE FROM THE GOVERNMENT AND THEY’RE HERE TO HELP: Many NJ restaurants could close under a new tipping rule, owners warn.

Under New Jersey labor law, a tipped employee is any worker — full-time, part-time, or temporary — in an occupation in which they “customarily and regularly receive more than $30 per month in tips.”

Bill A5433 was introduced last month by Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds-Jackson, D-Mercer, and was up for consideration by the Assembly on Thursday.

Individual restaurant owners and operators are calling the measure a dire situation.

“This is bad legislation for servers, bartenders, restaurant owners, and diners,” according to a social media post shared by the team behind sister restaurants Lita, Judy and Harry’s, and Heirloom Kitchen.

“It threatens the flexible, high-earning potential that tipped employees currently enjoy, and could drive many beloved local establishments to close their doors for good,” the post also said, saying small businesses “are already operating on razor-thin margins.”

A similar move in Washington, D.C., already phased out the tip credit for employers —with harrowing results, Klim said.

In D.C., Initiative 82 was approved by voters in 2023. The move was a main factor in 3,000 workers losing their jobs and the closure of nearly 75 restaurants, according to Klim.

The true minimum wage, as always, remains zero.

RAPE HISTORICALLY IS A TOOL FOR ESTABLISHING DOMINANCE OVER A CONQUERED PEOPLE:

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN:

Full text:

No due process for illegal… regulations: I’m often harsh with NYTimes Coral M Davenport but today I congratulate her for reporting on a major Trump Executive order from last week. Hardly anyone else has. The President directed agency heads to delete, without notice and comment, federal rules that are inconsistent with recent SCOTUS decisions — e.g., 2022’s West Virginia v. EPA (major regulatory programs need express Congressional authorization) and 2024’s Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (federal courts can no longer automatically defer to agency judgment in the absence of congressional direction).

Next step: Ride those agencies hard until they follow through.

CHIPS ARE HARD: The Semiconductors Tariff Yo-yo. “You can’t just take an existing building and turn it into a fab, it has to be specially built from the ground up with exacting standards for cleanroom air filtering, concrete slab level uniformity, etc. You need extremely exacting air purity handling equipment, as well as a system for running de-ionized water throughout the plant. Then you need to purchase, install, bring up and qualify all the hundreds of pieces of semiconductor equipment necessary to run a modern fab. And 2-3 years is probably the lead time to get an ASML EUV stepper, if you’re going to be building a cutting edge fab.”

UH-OH: Study predicts how and when humans and mammals will face extinction.

The work appears in Nature Geoscience and was led by Dr. Alexander Farnsworth, a Senior Research Associate at the University of Bristol. His team examined tectonic plate movement, solar changes, and greenhouse gas levels.

Geologists have long argued that Earth’s continents move gradually over time. Pangea Ultima is the name given to the hypothesized supercontinent that might emerge millions of years from now.

If this happens, much of the terrain would sit far from oceanic cooling influences, a situation known as the continentality effect.

“The newly-emerged supercontinent would effectively create a triple whammy, comprising the continentality effect, hotter sun and more CO₂ in the atmosphere, of increasing heat for much of the planet,” Dr. Farnsworth explained.

The only thing they haven’t figured out is how to blame humans for plate tectonics.

HMM: Zuckerberg’s 2012 email dubbed ‘smoking gun’ at Meta monopoly trial.

Starting the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) antitrust trial Monday with a bang, Daniel Matheson, the FTC’s lead litigator, flagged a “smoking gun”—a 2012 email where Mark Zuckerberg suggested that Facebook could buy Instagram to “neutralize a potential competitor,” The New York Times reported.

And in “another banger of an email from Zuckerberg,” Brendan Benedict, an antitrust expert monitoring the trial for Big Tech on Trial, posted on X that the Meta CEO wrote, “Messenger isn’t beating WhatsApp. Instagram was growing so much faster than us that we had to buy them for $1 billion… that’s not exactly killing it.”

These messages and others, the FTC hopes to convince the court, provide evidence that Zuckerberg runs Meta by the mantra “it’s better to buy than compete”—seemingly for more than a decade intent on growing the Facebook empire by killing off rivals, allegedly in violation of antitrust law. Another message from Zuckerberg exhibited at trial, Benedict noted on X, suggests Facebook tried to buy yet another rival, Snapchat, for $6 billion.

“We should probably prepare for a leak that we offered $6b… and all the negative [attention] that will come from that,” the Zuckerberg message said.

At the trial, Matheson suggested that “Meta broke the deal” that firms have in the US to compete to succeed, allegedly deciding “that competition was too hard, and it would be easier to buy out their rivals than to compete with them,” the NYT reported. Ultimately, it will be up to the FTC to prove that Meta couldn’t have achieved its dominance today without buying Instagram and WhatsApp (in 2012 and 2014, respectively), while legal experts told the NYT that it is “extremely rare” to unwind mergers approved so many years ago.

Developing…

ROBERT SPENCER: Englishman Converts to Islam, and the Madcap Hijinks Begin “A young Englishman named Jason Savage was looking for something in his life, and so he converted to Islam in 2012. That’s not surprising in today’s Britain, where the far-left Church of England teaches only shadows and vestiges of Christianity, and Islam is essentially the only alternative to the materialistic secularism that has led so many to find life empty and pointless. In a very real sense, however, Savage’s conversion to Islam is when his troubles began. Now he is facing life in prison, although in the UK that is likely to mean that he will spend only sixteen years behind bars. Savage’s story is similar to that of a great many converts to Islam who become jihadis, but this time there’s a twist.”