UKRAINE WAR: Shocking Lessons U.S. Military Leaders Learned by Watching Putin’s Invasion.

Other military observers are flabbergasted that a Russian invasion force, fully prepared and operating from Russian soil, has been able to move just tens of miles into an adjoining country. One retired U.S. Army general told Newsweek in an email: “We know that Russia has a plodding army and that Russian military force has always been a blunt instrument, but why risk the antipathy of the entire planet if you have no prospect of achieving even minimal gains.” The Army general believes that the only explanation is that the Kremlin overestimated its own forces.

“I believe that at the heart of Russian military thinking is how Marshall Zhukov marched across Eastern Europe to Berlin,” a former high-level CIA official told Newsweek in an interview. Zhukov’s orders were to “line up the artillery and … flatten everything ahead of you,” he says. “‘Then send in the peasant Army to kill or rape anyone left alive.’ Subtle the Russians are not.”

In the short term, Russia’s military failures in Ukraine increase the threat of escalation, including the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons. But in the longer term, if escalation doesn’t worsen and the Ukrainian conflict can be contained, Russian conventional military weakness upends many assumptions that geopolitical strategists—even those inside the U.S. government—make about Russia as a military threat.

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Putin going to war in Ukraine risked “showing for all the world to see his military’s real limitations.”

Maybe Putin should read a little more VodkaPundit and a little less of his own press clippings in Russia Today.

HE’S A SURVIVOR: Manchin Lines Up With GOP Against Bill to Codify Abortion Into Law.

THE SOTU DRUNKBLOG IS LIVE: Puddin’ Time! The First Adderall-Fueled SOTU.

SOTU PREVIEW: You Have Nothing Left to Threaten Us With, Joe. “Our Cabbage-in-Chief has no ‘Ws’ to brag about tonight. Unlike President Trump, who was only happy to report his, and our, successes, and there were many, Biden’s first year was an ongoing series of pimp-slaps for our once-great nation. Instead of tweeting victories like his predecessor, Biden has only barked angry threats to the American people, ‘Wear a mask, stay at home, get the shots, obey me or else, serf.'”

LAUGHING WOLF WITH ANOTHER POST-LIGHTNING STRIKE UPDATE: Well, I’m Typing. “I think that may be the most I’m willing to commit to at this time, given that every time I say I’m still alive and/or doing well it seems to be taken as a bit of a challenge. I don’t want the following to come across as sacrilegious, but: I know God does not give us more than we can handle, but Lord, I am not even close to being the badass you seem to think I’m capable of being.”

VICTORIA TAFT: How Big Is This SCOTUS Case About EPA’s Svengali-Like Powers? Huge.

UKRAINE WAR: Three big military decisions the Ukrainians will have to make soon.

We are approaching a critical phase in the Russian conquest of Ukraine. There have been multiple commitments of Western lethal and non-lethal aid in the past 72 hours. Concurrently, the Russians continue to commit more combat forces. According to background briefings at the Pentagon, Russia now has committed about 75 per cent of its combat power initially arrayed at the Ukrainian border.

After an initial lack of progress, it is likely that the Russian military leadership has rethought its strategy and will change its operational approach in the Ukraine. This will result in an increase in the use of artillery, rockets, thermobaric weapons, and air-delivered munitions as they turn to their more traditional approaches to war to secure their version of “victory”.

The impact of this is that the Ukrainian government and military have some big decisions ahead. There are three they may have to make in the coming days that could have a significant impact on the outcome of the war.

Regardless of whether Putin takes none, some, or all of Ukraine, his failure to secure a quick win has “accidentally revitalized the West’s liberal order.”

That would be more meaningful if the West’s leadership weren’t almost entirely useless, stupid, corrupt, or all three — but leaders can be replaced.

THAT’S NICE. HOW ABOUT SOME ARRESTS? Jim Jordan: House GOP Will Prioritize These 3 Investigations Next Year.

JOANNE JACOBS: College skippers may be the smart ones. “Only 62.2 percent of students complete a degree or certificate within six years. The completion rate is much lower for community colleges, which are seeing the biggest drops in enrollment.”

VODKAPUNDIT PRESENTS YOUR WEEKLY INSANITY WRAP: Eliminate Science With California’s 1 Weird Trick.

Plus:

• Bad taste is a gender now, apparently
• The (Masked) Kids Are (Not) Alright
• See what patriotism looks like when the price is high

So much more at the link, you’d have to be crazy to miss it.

TOO LATE: Joe Biden Has Only Days To Avoid Becoming Jimmy Carter.

It is worth recalling how Carter reacted to these events. In the case of Iran, he infamously ordered a rescue mission — Operation Eagle Claw — that ended in humiliating failure on April 24, 1980, when one of the U.S. helicopters intended to evacuate the hostages crashed into a transport aircraft, killing eight American servicemen. But he also imposed economic sanctions, freezing about $8.1 billion in Iranian assets and imposing a trade embargo.

In the case of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Carter again opted for sanctions. He placed an embargo on shipments of commodities such as grain to the Soviet Union and suspended high-technology exports. He also boycotted the 1980 Olympics in Moscow and withdrew the SALT II treaty from consideration by the Senate.

Carter’s approval rating had touched an all-time low of 28% in June 1979 and, despite rallying briefly in early 1980, never got back above 40% as the election campaign unfolded. Inflation, which had stood at 5.2% in the month of Carter’s inauguration, hit an all-time high of 14.6% in April 1980, driven skyward by the surge in oil prices that followed the Iranian Revolution.

In January 1979, the spot crude price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate had been $14.85. By July 1980 it had more than doubled to $39.50. Carter tried to counter inflation by nominating Paul Volcker to be Fed chair in July 1979. But, as Milton Friedman long ago taught us, monetary policy operates with long and variable lags. Inflationary expectations were not truly broken until 1982.

If all of this sounds strangely familiar, it is because we are living through our own version of these events. Karl Marx memorably observed that history repeats itself “the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.” But sometimes you just get two tragedies in succession.

Although this time around, the first tragedy was getting Joe Biden foisted on us by people who knew better but didn’t give a damn.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Flashback: The ‘cabal’ that bragged of foisting Joe Biden on us must answer for his failed presidency.

ROBERT SPENCER: Biden Says Don’t Worry About Nuclear War, So Start Worrying.

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY: Yes, Russia could use nuclear weapons.

In wargame simulations I have participated in for several years now, we always assume that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons against NATO if a war ever did break out.

But such thinking leaves a lot of ground uncovered. NATO is not exactly itching for a fight with Moscow or to attack its territory, even with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine still unfolding.

Back in 2012, I pressed my Russian colleague, asking in what other situations Russia would use nuclear weapons, if any. He explained that “if anything threatens our ability to exist as a nation and prosper, it is my view that we would use nuclear weapons.”

I didn’t believe him then, but I do now.

With Russian President Vladimir Putin now putting his nation’s nuclear forces on alert status, Moscow is signaling to us that recent arms shipments, sanctions, lashings in the media, and pressure placed on the Putin government are rattling nerves.

Putin is trying to tell us in no uncertain terms that we are coming close to his geopolitical redlines and, like a caged animal, he will strike back if we apply too much pressure. That could even mean using nuclear weapons.

The Russian military regularly includes mock tactical nuclear weapons in its training exercises, indicating that the troops are supposed to be well-rehearsed in their battlefield use.

CNN POLL: Americans Favor Russia Sanctions, Still Don’t Trust Biden.

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY (RUSSIA EDITION):

SCIENCE! Mask Mandate for Congress Lifted Just in Time for…

UKRAINE WAR: Belarus troops have invaded Ukraine, Kyiv claims, as 40-mile convoy of Putin’s artillery snakes towards the capital amid fears Russia will ‘use medieval tactics’ to bomb the city into submission as supermarket shelves run empty.

Putin’s “reformed” Russian Army — the one that was supposed to use speed and technology to score rapid victories — turns out to be just like the old Soviet Army: Slow and brutal.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF: Oh God, Biden Is Going to Try and Use Words. “My friend and colleague VodkaPundit will be bringing back his legendary DrunkBlog for the State of the Union Address. I would like to thank him in advance for watching so I don’t have to. I don’t have the stomach to watch the drooling idiot Biden babble on about Corn Pop, and pandemics, and reasons.The guy can barely get through a five-sentence response to a simple question without eating his foot, I can’t watch him wrestle with a teleprompter.”

HMM: Putin’s ‘thugs for hire’ militia with orders to kill Zelensky: Shadowy Wagner mercenaries who have been flown in from Africa with 23-strong hit list including Ukraine’s president and the Klitschko brothers. “Sending the Wagner Group into Ukraine would fit in with its use by the Russian state elsewhere in the world. It has previously been deployed to Africa, where it has carried out black ops operations that the Kremlin wants done while avoiding direct responsibility.”

Whatever is actually going on in and around Ukraine, this bit has held up pretty well, even though it’s from a piece where I explained why I didn’t think Putin would pull the trigger: “Sending in the Russian Army risks too much, including perhaps showing for all the world to see his military’s real limitations.”

Deployments and initial operations certainly made it look like Putin thought he could get a quick and relatively easy victory. A week into this thing, and the one clear thing is that he didn’t get anything like that.

PJ MEDIA VIP ROUNDUP: Don’t forget that VODKAPUNDIT promo code if you’ve been thinking of joining us.

Kevin Downey Jr: How Far Can You Push Americans Before They Start Using Firearms to Fight Fascism? “We would be idiots to think that fascism and state-sponsored violence can’t come here. However, the difference between the Australians and Canadians, and we Americans, would be the 2nd Amendment.”

Rick Moran: Illinois Gov. Pritzker Abandons Mask Mandate, but Chicago Teachers’ Union Has Other Ideas. “The Chicago Teachers’ Union has a separate, binding agreement with the city that forces kids to mask up. The teachers have already come close to walking out on the issue, so it’s not likely the city will want to poke the bear and try to end the mask mandate to bring Chicago schools in line with the rest of the country.”

Yours Truly: Has Joe Biden Been Sniffing His Own Gaslight Fumes? “Americans, God bless us, aren’t buying it. Joe’s polls are in that crapper he sometimes doesn’t reach in time, and it isn’t because of some imaginary COVID hangover.”

COVID IS OVER: Nearly half of President Joe Biden’s 500 million free COVID tests are still unclaimed.

IF WE ONLY HAD LEADERSHIP SMART OR WILLING ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE: Beijing’s Ukraine Balancing Act Reveals Exploitable Fissures in the Sino-Russian Partnership. “Going forward, Beijing will continue blaming Washington and its allies for provoking Russia while simultaneously calling for a diplomatic resolution. Expected worldwide economic disruptions following a Russian invasion, including shocks to energy and commodity markets upon which China depends to meet surging demand, will test the Sino-Russian partnership. A sustained global economic downturn could also undermine China’s ability to achieve its growth targets.”

Read the whole thing.

OH, CANADA: The Government From Hell. “Our blue-collar benefactors now face the consequences of the scorched-earth policies adopted by the anointed class. Many have lost their rigs. Operating licenses have been revoked. Criminal charges have been laid. Bans on trucker commerce have proliferated. Bankruptcy looms for many. Livelihoods have been demolished. Families have been obliterated. Marriages are bound to collapse. And I suspect that suicides will mount as desperation sees no escape from ruination. In effect, Justin Trudeau declared war on those who kept the goods and services flowing through the ersatz pandemic and who enabled the populace to weather the government-induced travesty. Gratitude is not in the dwindling catalogue of common virtues. The casualties, though hidden by the Soviet-style media, are devastating.”

WHEN DONALD TRUMP ASKED THEM TO DO THIS, HE WAS ACCUSED TO TRYING TO WEAKEN NATO: In Dramatic Shift, Germany Begins Military Rearmament.

WHAT FLAVOR ICE CREAM, MR. PRESIDENT? Putin Threatens Nuclear Escalation as Biden Goes on Vacation.