VOA’S IMAGE ESSAY ON LIBYA’S LATEST STRONGMAN: 46 seconds long, images and text, no voice over. Most of VOA’s quick takes hit the essential details. This one strikes me as a reasonably quick intro to Libyan General Khalifa Haftar. His forces are now preparing to attack Tripoli.

RELATED: StrategyPages’ April 11 update on the looming battle for Tripoli. Note StrategyPage uses the spelling “Hiftar.”

A few of the complexities to ponder:

The LNA (Libyan National Army) and its commander Khalifa Hiftar are on the verge of taking the capital and ending eight years of factional fighting that has left Libya broke and chaotic. Haftar has the support of most Libyans along with Russia, most Arab states (especially Egypt and the UAE) and a growing number of European countries. The UN opposes Hiftar, as does ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), the Moslem Brotherhood and pro-brotherhood nations like Turkey, Qatar and Iran.

Another:

There have been two rival governments in Libya since 2015. The GNA (Government of National Accord) has since late 2018 become more amenable to working with Hiftar. But the many militias the GNA presides over wanted nothing to do with losing their power to a unified government.

Possible collusion?

Hiftar had been an early supporter of Kaddafi and was a colonel in the Libyan army when, in the late 1980s, he and Kaddafi became enemies and Hiftar was declared a traitor. Hiftar got support from the CIA to form an opposition force (the first LNA) but no African nations were willing to host it for long and by 1990 Hiftar was living in the U.S. and seeking citizenship. Hiftar spent 20 years living in the West before returning to Libya after Kaddafi was overthrown in 2011.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Hillary and Obama’s record on Libya: From “Responsibility to Protect” to Slave Markets.

WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND: Sudan’s military has toppled longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. Bashir is now under arrest. Bashir seized power in a military coup in 1989. Despite his arrest the nation-wide protests against the government continue. Why? It’s a new military dictatorship, not a democratically elected civilian government.

The BBC makes this point in the linked report:

But demonstrators say the military council is part of the same regime.

The fresh stand-off has raised fears of a violent confrontation between protesters and the army.

There is also a real danger that different elements of the security forces and militia could turn their guns on each other, BBC World Service Africa editor Will Ross says.

StrategyPage published its latest Sudan update on April 5. (Full disclosure: I wrote 90 percent of it.) The update sketches events since December 19, 2018 when the demonstrations began. The update’s titled “Sudan Slides Towards Civil War.” Note the BBC says the security forces and government militias may start shooting at one another. That classifies as civil war.

From the April 5 StrategyPage update:

The protests began December 19, 2018. Initially, public anger at government reductions in food and fuel subsidies sparked the unrest but Sudan’s weak economy and president-for-life Bashir’s misrule (especially corruption) are the real sources of disgust. The economy has suffered considerably because of the loss of revenue from South Sudan’s oil fields (courtesy of South Sudan’s independence). Some protestors have focused on the Bashir’s huge spending on the military and security services while neglecting basic government services. President Bashir also faces indictments by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and genocide in Darfur. Little wonder removing Bashir has become the demonstrators’ principal demand.

Note the March 13 entry regarding “the government’s harsh crackdown on street protestors, journalists and opposition political leaders.” (Scroll down.)

On February 22 Bashir “imposed a year-long state of national emergency. During the national emergency, public demonstrations are banned.” But the demonstrations continued. More people joined the protests. (See this March 11 update for details on the state of emergency and expanding protests.) On March 11 Bashir still retained the loyalty of the army. A month later that had changed.

This update has background on Bashir (February 1 entry):

He seized power in 1989 in a military coup and the military remains his base of power. Bashir continues to face arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity in western Sudan (Darfur).

Bashir’s government hosted some of the world’s most notorious terrorists, Carlos “the Jackal” and Osama bin Laden among them. Abu Nidal also had a Khartoum address. Allegedly Lords Resistance Army commander and mass murderer Joseph Kony hides out in one of Sudan’s far corners.

On January 12 local observers believed the political opposition was “too fractured” to topple Bashir.

Stay tuned.

KOREA: Deadlocked, but not stalemated.

RELATED: Chapter 2, Cocktails from Hell.

BLACK HAWK OVER SUBIC BAY: A UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter from the 25th Combat Aviation Brigade approaches the flight deck of the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp in support of Exercise Balikatan 2019. Balikatan is an annual U.S.-Philippines military training exercise The photo sends a message to a certain Asian country engaged in imperialist territorial expansion in the South China Sea. Can you name that country?

VERY RELATED: The Manila-Beijing bromance is over.

DEEP BACKGROUND RELATED: Chapter 3, Cocktails from Hell.

1ST ARMORED DIVISION LIVE FIRE EXERCISE IN POLAND: 1st Armored Division M1A2 Abrams tanks deploy in a defensive position during a live fire exercise at Drasko Pomorskie Training Area in Drawsko Promorskie, Poland. Photo taken March 29.

SYRIA’S CIVIL WAR CONTINUES: The chaos continues. Reuters reports suicide bombers disguised as farmers attacked a Syrian Army position north of the city of Hama.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Army continues to make indiscriminate attacks:

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the eight-year-long war, says about 200 civilians have been killed by shelling and bombardment in the region since mid-February, the bulk of them by government attacks on rebel-held areas.

The Observatory said 10 people were killed in Tuesday’s attack in a “demilitarized” zone set up under the Turkish-Russian agreement.

Iranian proxies haven’t left. This podcast discusses Iranian proxy and mercenary operations in Syria.

Remember, Obama said Assad must go. Obama also imposed a “red line” forbidding the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime — then he failed to enforce it. Obama also allied with Russia in Syria –isn’t an alliance collusion of a type? Obama also gave Iran several billion — money that can be spent on mercenaries.

MANILA’S BEIJING BROMANCE WRECKS ON PAG-ASA ISLAND: Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte has threatened Beijing with military action.

China’s prior theft of Filipino maritime territory and resources is a fact. In 2016, the Hague’s arbitration tribunal ruled that China had intruded on Filipino territory when it seized islets in the Spratlys, constructed artificial islands on reefs well inside long-recognized Filipino territory and conducted illegal fishing operations. The tribunal relied heavily on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea treaty (UNCLOS), which China claims to recognize and support.

Read the whole thing.

RAPTOR ELEPHANT WALK: F-22 Raptors from the 3rd Wing and 477th Fighter Group participate in a close formation taxi, known as an Elephant walk, with an E-3 Sentry and a C-17 Globemaster III March 26, 2019, during a Polar Force exercise at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Fabulous photo of very valuable combat aircraft. Here’s another photo of four Raptors (March 2017) deployed for an exercise in Australia. The F-22 is the world’s premier air superiority fighter. Only 187 F-22s were manufactured. At the moment maybe 150 F-22s are operational — anyone with better figures is encouraged to provide them. You’ll see 24 in the photo– roughly 15 to 16 percent of America’s operational F-22 fleet? Per this Air Force Magazine article, several F-22s that were based at Tyndall AFB, Florida were damaged by Hurricane Michael. This article discusses the constant demand for the aircraft in combat zones (beginning in 2014) and the wear and tear on the plane. It also mentions the parts shortage. As the article says, the USAF wants an availability rate of 80 percent for the F-22 and at the moment that’s a stretch.

RELATED: Beautiful photo of Raptors over the Rocky Mountains. Also a look back at one of the F-22’s more troublesome developmental issues: The Raptor Curse (aka The Cough).

SIGNING BOOKS TODAY IN HOUSTON: Today (April 6) from 3 pm to 5 pm I’ll be signing books at the River Oaks Bookstore in Houston. The address is 3270 Westheimer (the corner of Westheimer and River Oaks Boulevard). The bookstore’s an independent and has been in business for years. Click the link for more information. Embrace The Suck will be available as well as Cocktails From Hell.

SAUDI ARABIA GOES BIG ON THAAD: Yemen is a ballistic missile war, with proxies firing Iranian-made short range ballistic missiles at targets in Saudi Arabia and on some Arab coalition bases in Yemen. U.S. Patriot PAC-3 has performed well, but Iran has bigger missiles.

Saudi Arabia has made a billion dollar down payment on its $15 billion order for a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) anti-missile system. The down payment is to enable the manufacturer to start production on items that take a long time to produce. The Saudi order is the largest ever for THAAD. The Saudis are buying 44 launchers, 360 missiles and radar and control stations for seven batteries. In addition, this deal will pay for an upgrade of Saudi radar warning and communications infrastructure as well as bases for the THAAD batteries and maintenance facilities.

Read the whole post. Here’s a THAAD test fired from Kodiak, Alaska. No launch site mentioned in this photo but you get a good look at the missile and its mobile launcher.

RELATED: Background on Yemen, its proxy warriors, its multitude of wars and its missile war in Chapter 5, Cocktails from Hell.

NAVY TACTICAL BOATS ON THE LOOKOUT: Three U.S. Navy tactical patrol boats, assigned to Command Task Group (CTG) 68.6 from Camp Lemonnier, provide security to Military Sealift Command fleet replenishment oiler USNS Tippecanoe as it departs the Port of Djibouti, March 30, 2019.

BOOK SIGNING IN HOUSTON THIS COMING SATURDAY: This coming Saturday (April 6) from 3 pm to 5 pm I’ll be signing books at the River Oaks Bookstore in Houston. The address is 3270 Westheimer (the corner of Westheimer and River Oaks Boulevard). The bookstore’s an independent and has been in business for years. Click the link for more information. Embrace The Suck will be available as well as Cocktails From Hell.

RELATED: Four reviews of Cocktails From Hell. (1) Glenn Reynolds in USA Today. (2) James Carafano in National Interest. (3) Joseph Bottum in The Washington Free Beacon.(4) Richard Fernandez on his Belmont Club blog.

NATO’S 21ST CENTURY VALUE

LCACS ON A BEACH: Two landing craft air cushion (LCAC) wait on a beach somewhere in the eastern Pacific. One is preparing to unload Marines and vehicles, the other is preparing to depart.

CORRUPTION CONFIDENTIAL: Naw, not Hillary and AOC, but their financial (Hillary) and ideological (AOC) friends, the Russian government and Russian oligarchs.

Opinion polls show that most Russians accept corruption as a basic element in Russian culture and unlikely to be eliminated any time soon. Most Russians also complain that the prevalence of corruption hurts the economy and is another unpleasant aspect of life in Russia. While the government makes a big deal (lots of publicity) about anti-corruption efforts it is widely understood that when some major government official (usually a former official) is arrested and charged with corruption there is more to the story than that. First, the official is probably guilty as charged and the details make interesting reading. The other part of the story is generally not published and involves the details of which other senior official the “corrupt” official offended.

Read the whole thing. Snicker, shake your head.

THE LITTORAL COMBAT SHIP CONTINUES TO SLIP: A long post with a title that says it all: “It Seemed Like A Good Idea At The Time.” The post touches on the major issues nagging the LCS, to include the multitude of problems with the ship’s “mission modules,” vulnerabilities in its computerized combat systems and structural flaws.

SIMMERING SOUTH CHINA SEA HEATS UP: Taiwan scrambles jet fighters to intercept Chinese aircraft violating Taiwanese airspace then vigorously protests the military intrusions. A U.S. Navy amphibious warfare group exercises with Filipino forces. China plans a huge fleet review “to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy” — and show off its latest military muscle. What could go wrong?

No, the conflict in South China Sea isn’t about to escalate to a slugfest — but nonetheless a conflict is occurring. The events in the AP report sound a bit like one of the conflict scenario sketches in Chapter 3, Cocktails from Hell. If you’ve a copy check out”Meeting Engagement in the South China Sea” and “China Invades Taiwan” (pp. 80-81).

Two weeks ago Jim Dunnigan and I recorded a podcast about the evolving situation in the South China Sea. Jim thinks the situation is more stable than I do. He argues that China knows it isn’t ready to tangle — hence he spends some air time discussing Chinese corruption and China’s awareness of its weaknesses. I don’t disagree with his point that China isn’t ready to tangle, I merely note the situation’s already tangled. China’s intruded on Filipino and Vietnamese territory. Maybe that’s why the host titled the podcast “A Powderkeg Waiting To Be Lit.” Here’s a link to the podcast on youtube. This podcast’s a bit windy but it covers the issues.

THE CODE BREAKERS SPEAK: A book review of Michael Paterson’s Voices of the Code Breakers – Personal Accounts of the Secret Heroes of World War II.

While the story of the successful Allied efforts to break Axis codes during World War II has been told well a number of times, British historian Paterson’s approach offers the reader a novel look at the subject, by in drawing heavily on interviews, memoirs, diaries, and similar first-hand accounts by the men and women who helped bring about that success.

Although he tends to mostly cover British efforts, Paterson’s account ranges across the work of several countries. He often cuts back and forth from the stuffy huts at Bletchley Park to daring deeds at sea and on land, to show us how the tedious work of the code breakers affected and was affected by the harsh realities of combat.

This is another succinct and informative review by Dr. A.A. Nofi.

RAPTOR OVER GREEN CALIFORNIA: An F-22 Raptor prepares to perform at an air show held at Travis AFB, California.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: The national security impact of Mueller’s investigation.

GEORGIA LEAVES GEORGIA DRY DOCK: The guided-missile submarine USS Georgia prepares to exit the dry dock at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia.

HOMAGE TO YODA — ANDY MARSHALL: A superb reminiscence of the great American strategist by Andrew Krepinevich.

Aside from his towering intellect, Marshall’s success was rooted in his intense desire and abiding curiosity to understand what is really happening or, more simply, the truth. There was also his intellectual honesty, refreshing in an age where so many are driven by agendas and seek “ammunition” to support their views rather than insights to better understand a complex world. Another key to Marshall’s success—and to his enduring value to presidents of both political parties—was his willingness to reconsider his beliefs when they conflicted with the facts, and to challenge the conventional wisdom when it became apparent that it did not reflect the reality of the true state of affairs.

A bit more:

Marshall’s remarkable ability to anticipate shifts in the strategic environment became legendary over time.

Absolutely true. I had the privilege of working for Mr. Marshall as a special consultant in strategic war gaming. Read the entire essay.

UPDATE: The breakingdefense link worked initially. Thanks to a reader, we have this alternative link.

THE NATIONAL SECURITY IMPACT OF RUSSIAGATE AND MUELLER’S INVESTIGATION:

…on July 13, 2017 then-House Minority Leader — now Speaker — Nancy Pelosi claimed “this week we saw cold hard evidence” that the Trump family colluded with Russia to assault American democracy.”

Ah but.

Hard evidence exists that a serious national security crime was committed during the election and early 2017. Trump and his campaign were spied upon, not by foreign adversaries but by America’s security agencies. Moreover, criminals in these agencies colluded with media compadres to mislead the American people.

The security agency corruption and media collusion produced a cold, hard totalitarian horror committed in and against America, the world’s paramount democracy.

Read the entire essay.

A FLARE FOR ALASKAN WINTER WARFARE: A paratrooper in the 1st Battalion, 501st Parachute Infantry Regiment, 4th Infantry Brigade Combat Team (Airborne), 25th Infantry Division, fires a signal flare during an exercise. The photo has great color contrast –flare launch, white snow, white winter camouflage uniforms, lingering red smoke between the log barrier and the treeline.

B-52 WHEELS UP: The plane is deployed with STRATCOM’s Bomber Task Force in Europe.