April 2, 2019

SIMMERING SOUTH CHINA SEA HEATS UP: Taiwan scrambles jet fighters to intercept Chinese aircraft violating Taiwanese airspace then vigorously protests the military intrusions. A U.S. Navy amphibious warfare group exercises with Filipino forces. China plans a huge fleet review “to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy” — and show off its latest military muscle. What could go wrong?

No, the conflict in South China Sea isn’t about to escalate to a slugfest — but nonetheless a conflict is occurring. The events in the AP report sound a bit like one of the conflict scenario sketches in Chapter 3, Cocktails from Hell. If you’ve a copy check out”Meeting Engagement in the South China Sea” and “China Invades Taiwan” (pp. 80-81).

Two weeks ago Jim Dunnigan and I recorded a podcast about the evolving situation in the South China Sea. Jim thinks the situation is more stable than I do. He argues that China knows it isn’t ready to tangle — hence he spends some air time discussing Chinese corruption and China’s awareness of its weaknesses. I don’t disagree with his point that China isn’t ready to tangle, I merely note the situation’s already tangled. China’s intruded on Filipino and Vietnamese territory. Maybe that’s why the host titled the podcast “A Powderkeg Waiting To Be Lit.” Here’s a link to the podcast on youtube. This podcast’s a bit windy but it covers the issues.

InstaPundit is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.