Archive for 2023

A NIGHTMARE THE GREEN NEW DEALERS WILL NEVER LET YOU WAKE UP FROM: IEA’s Net Zero Dream Was Just Debunked as a Nightmare.

The RealClearFoundation asked the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRF) to analyze the feasibility and consequences of a carbon-neutral world.

The results of the meticulous 92-page report weren’t pretty.

First, the report examines some of the more unreasonable assumptions. For example, the IEA plan is based on China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, also embracing the wisdom of going carbon-neutral, beginning in 2021. One immediate problem: China was producing two new coal plants per week in 2022. Addressing energy before a speech to the Communist Party Congress last fall, President Xi Jinping was focused on “getting the new before discarding the old.”

Second, to make up for fossil fuels (which account for 80% of the world’s energy supply), the world needs more electricity — a lot more electricity. In fact, global power supply needs to increase from less than 20% of all energy use to 50% by 2050.

Of course, setting aside feasibility questions, the consequences would be dire and all too recognizable. Soaring inflation. Spikes in gas prices as supply and production are constricted. More land gobbled up for wind and solar farms. An increased reliance on OPEC+ monopolizing the world’s oil supply, even as high as 82%, placing our nation’s geopolitical security in the hands of nations who wish us harm. If this sounds familiar, it is: it’s what we are going through right now because of bad decisions coming out of Washington, D.C.

Those decisions are only bad if inflation, land grabs, and diminished American security aren’t the goals.

HEH:

DECOUPLING: US, Dutch Set to Hit China’s Chipmakers With One-Two Punch.

The Dutch government plans to announce new regulations on Friday with a licensing requirement for the top tier of ASML’S second-best product line, deep ultra violet (DUV) semiconductor equipment. ASML’s most sophisticated machines — extreme ultraviolent “EUV” lithography machines — are already restricted, and have never been shipped to China.

ASML said in March it expects the Dutch regulations to affect its TWINSCAN NXT:2000i and more sophisticated models.

But the company’s older DUV models, like one called the TWINSCAN NXT:1980Di, could also be kept from about six Chinese facilities by the U.S. The facilities are expected to be identified in a new U.S. rule that will allow the U.S. to restrict foreign equipment with even a small percentage of U.S. parts to those sites, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person was not authorized to speak publicly.

The new Dutch regulations will not take effect immediately, sources said, with one person expecting the effective date to be September, two months after publication.

The planned U.S. rule, which sources said may be published by late July, will require licenses to export equipment to about a half dozen Chinese facilities, including a fab operated by SMIC, China’s largest chipmaker, the person familiar with the U.S. plans, said. Licenses to ship the equipment to those facilities will likely be denied, the person said.

Xi’s policy of antagonizing everybody is going swimmingly.

CHANGE: A $100 Billion Wealth Migration Tilts US Economy’s Center of Gravity South.

The numbers tell the story. For the first time, six fast-growing states in the South — Florida, Texas, Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee — are contributing more to the national GDP than the Northeast, with its Washington-New York-Boston corridor, in government figures going back to the 1990s. The switch happened during the pandemic and shows no signs of reverting.

A flood of transplants helped steer about $100 billion in new income to the Southeast in 2020 and 2021 alone, while the Northeast bled out about $60 billion, based on an analysis of recently published Internal Revenue Service data.

The Southeast accounted for more than two-thirds of all job growth across the US since early 2020, almost doubling its pre-pandemic share. And it was home to 10 of the 15 fastest-growing American large cities.

Corporations are also flocking there, with a record number of firms moving south after the pandemic, Census Bureau data show.

And in the state that received the largest share of the southward shift: DeSantis says majority of people fleeing to Florida are registering as Republicans.

THE NEW SPACE RACE: NASA predicts delay: Starship grounded pending investigation.

According to a senior NASA official, the agency’s goal of returning astronauts to the moon for the first time in more than 50 years may be delayed yet again due to the Federal Aviation Administration’s investigation into the midair explosion of a SpaceX Starship/Super Heavy on April 20.

An autonomous flight termination system (AFTS) aboard the two-stage Starship-Super Heavy triggered the explosion, about four minutes into the prototype’s first orbital test flight, after the vehicle veered out of control after the two stages failed to separate. The mission called for Super Heavy to detach from Starship shortly after launch from Boca Chica and land in the Gulf of Mexico, while Starship was to have orbited once around the Earth before landing in the Navy’s Pacific Missile Range Facility near Hawaii.

The incident automatically triggered an FAA investigation, and orbital flight tests from Boca Chica are on hold until the investigation is complete. NASA in 2021 awarded SpaceX a $2.9 billion contract to develop Starship as the human landing system (HLS) that will put U.S. astronauts back on the moon for the first time since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972 as part of the space agency’s Artemis program. The first moon landing of astronauts under the Artemis III mission was to have taken place in December 2025.

However, as reported June 9 by SpacePolicyOnline.com, Jim Free, NASA’s associate administrator for Exploration Systems Development, told a joint meeting of the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and the Space Studies Board of the U.S. National National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine that the Artemis III mission now isn’t likely to happen before 2026.

I’m not sure anyone thought Artemis III would be ready by 2026 even before today’s news.

JEFFREY CARTER: When Elites Don’t Fight, Why Should Anybody? “During the Obama and the current Biden administrations, the culture of the military has been deliberately changed. They are focusing on equity, ESG, and all the woke bullshit that destroys everything else. . . . The military reduced its standards and still can’t get enough bodies. Many of the ones that do come in are too fat to fight. 8 weeks of basic training doesn’t change that. Not only that, they aren’t educated enough after spending their lives in government-run union-run schools to execute anything in the military. Many recruits spend time in remedial education classes to get them up to speed on their reading, writing, and arithmetic.”

THE DECLINE (AND FALL?) OF COLLEGE. As I believe Glenn has already pointed out, part of the reason affirmative action got shot down is that courts no longer have the confidence that colleges are making sound academic judgments. Schools doing things like eliminating the SAT to obfuscate admissions processes aren’t going to help with this, either.