The leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion that would overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion decision sent shock waves through America’s political classes Tuesday and threatened to upend the conventional wisdom about the prospects for both parties in the coming midterm elections.
If issued as a formal decision, the draft majority opinion, written by Justice Samuel Alito in February, would end the court’s protection of a woman’s right to an abortion and relegate that authority to legislators in statehouses or the U.S. Congress.
The opinion itself was not entirely unexpected, but the manner in which it became public — via a leak to Politico — was highly unusual. Politicians in both parties seemed caught off-guard, and analysts began rethinking their predictions for close races across the country if the abortion issue becomes a central focus of the fall campaign.
A formal opinion in the case, Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, is expected in the next two months. The outcome of the case and the language of the draft opinion could still change before its release.Republicans generally welcomed the prospect of a decision overturning Roe, but instead of celebrating spent most of the day excoriating the person or persons responsible for the leak.
In a written statement, Senator McConnell called it an “yet another escalation in the radical left’s ongoing campaign to bully and intimidate federal judges.” At a later press conference, he urged reporters to focus not on the draft itself but on the fact that it was leaked.
Democratic strategists professed to be unsure how the issue would play out at the polls. President Biden, when asked about the potential political fallout from what he called a “radical decision,” demurred, stating only that he had not thought through such things.
His office, however, wasted no time in attempting to rally its base around the cause.
I predict it will make less difference in November than people think now.
