Author Archive: Stephen Green

VOTING WITH THEIR FEET: Portland Is Losing Some of Its Biggest Fans.

Multnomah County has lost residents for the past three years, according to Portland State University’s Population Research Center. Before 2020, it hadn’t lost people since 1987, and that was just a one-year blip in an upward run that began in 1984.

In the most recent PSU estimate—for the year ended July 1, 2022—the population fell by 2,321. The cause was “out migration,” PSU says, which is a fancy way of saying people bailed.

That may not seem like a lot in a county that had 812,563 residents as of July 1, 2021, but it’s a reversal of fortune for a city that once attracted migrants from other states the way locally roasted Chemex coffee draws men with sleeve tattoos.

Josh Lehner, a state economist, says his department had expected a rebound in 2022, but it didn’t arrive. The longer the slump in population lasts, he says, the less likely pandemic-related moving patterns are to blame, and the more likely it is that Portland has a problem.

Portland has a problem.

ALL THESE WORLDS ARE YOURS — EXCEPT EUROPA, OF COURSE: Astronomers Just Discovered 12 New Moons Orbiting Jupiter. “With the advent of these 12 previously undiscovered moons, the gas giant now has 92 known orbiting entities, surpassing Saturn’s amazing collection of 83.”

I’M FINE WITH THIS: Plodding Senate lowers expectations for new Congress. “As House Republicans spar with the Biden administration and pass a bevy of messaging bills, the Democratic-controlled Senate is off to a much slower start. Four weeks into the 118th session of Congress, the upper chamber has taken just a few votes and is only now organizing its committee rosters, foreshadowing what could be an unproductive two years.”

THE FUTURE BELONGS TO THOSE WHO SHOW UP: China will lose half its population by the end of the century — and the ripple effects will be catastrophic.

This year India is set to surpass China’s population, and in a few years it will surpass China’s working-age population — people 20 to 69. The United Nations has estimated that if China’s birth rate remains at its super-low level and the country fails to position itself as an attractive destination for migrants, the country will lose nearly half of its population by the end of this century, a contraction of roughly 700 million people.

Strong growth in its working-age population over the past several decades allowed China to become the world’s factory — over 70% of solar panels, 60% of farm machines, and 25% of robots are constructed with components from Chinese suppliers. Because of its manufacturing prowess and importance to supply chains, China’s shrinking working-age population has enormous, direct effects on the global economy. It’s also an omen for the US and Europe: If they don’t turn around their shrinking birth rates, they face the same economic fate as China.

But: “The large population decline is projected even though it assumes that China’s total fertility rate will rise from 1.18 children per woman in 2022 to 1.48 in 2100.”

Without that rise in fertility — which seems unlikely — China’s population will shrink even faster.

DISRUPTION: ChatGPT Plus is here — and it has Google in its sights.

Can it really destroy Google’s business model in just two years? While Buccheit’s comments can appear hyperbolic, there could be some substance to them. Buccheit believes that ChatGPT and AI can erode Google Search’s dominance in the market, and even the need for a search engine results page entirely.

He makes no claim regarding AI’s ability to destroy — for example — the Google Pixel phones like the Google Pixel 7 Pro or the company’s Waymo self-driving car project. However, the money for these projects is largely fueled by Google Search — specifically Google Search’s ad revenue from the search engine results page.

In this instance, Buccheit is onto something. The New York Times reported recently that Google declared “code red” regarding AI and is now planning to integrate AI into its search engine and chatbot features at a severely accelerated pace. If true, it shows just how scared Google is by AI like ChatGPT threatening its business model.

Stay tuned.

KRUISER: A Tale of Two Parties: Ronna McDaniel’s RNC and Regular Republican Voters. “The Republican Party is now faced with heading into the most important presidential election since perhaps the American Civil War as a dysfunctional family. The Republican voters in real America are estranged from the string-pullers in Washington, specifically the RNC. McDaniel’s mere presence will guarantee that remains the case throughout the next two years.”

CHRISTIAN TOTO: Comedian Anthony Jeselnik: ‘I Don’t Have Sympathy’ for Canceled Chappelle. “Anthony Jeselnik, on paper, should live in mortal fear of Cancel Culture. The comic traffics in material so extreme, so morally warped, that it’s shocking someone hasn’t raised a ruckus over it yet. He likely stays ahead of the mob by embracing his over-the-top brand. No one actually believes he believes what he says on stage.”

UKRAINE WAR [VIP]: Here Comes the Russian Wave. “It likely comes down to a numbers game as Russia continues cranking up its first major offensive since stalling out last summer. This is where Western weapons and training come in, or at least they should.”

Don’t forget that VODKAPUNDIT promo code if you’ve been thinking of joining us.

ADAM COLEMAN: Be inspired this Black History Month — and take it back from agenda-driven progressives.

Progressives are seducing Americans to constantly stare at past oppression of black Americans to slowly impair their vision of the present and beyond. They’re the merchants of a singular narrative about how we’re the descendants of the downtrodden who stood idly by until graciously receiving white people’s benevolence.

If you’re white, you’re supposed to grovel for forgiveness for what you haven’t personally done and simultaneously elevate yourself to become black America’s savior to allegedly prevent it from happening again. If you’re black, you’re supposed to accept your position in society as the permanently disadvantaged who resents needing assistance.

Black history is too often articulated only from the perspective of what was done to us and rarely displayed as what we were capable of overcoming — and it’s been exploited by progressives for social manipulation.

Read the whole thing.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: DeSantis Keeps Staring Down His Haters and Winning. “Democrats, their flying monkeys in the mainstream media, and now hardcore Trump faithful, would prefer that DeSantis trip up and give them a reason to force him off of the stage, but he’s not the stumbling type so far.”

VIDEO: The Flying Yeet of Death. “This is a great application of one of Murphy’s Military Laws: ‘If it’s stupid but it works, it ain’t stupid.’ For the Russians, it must be quit embarrassing to get yeeted into the afterlife by Doogie Howser’s science fair project.”

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): The photo appears implausible to me — at least, those don’t look quite like RPG rounds attached to the drones, and they look too heavy for them though it’s hard to establish scale in this picture. I welcome input from people who know more.

More: The narrator doesn’t actually say the photo illustrates the drone used in the video, only that it’s “something like” that.

YES: It’s Time for the Scientific Community to Admit We Were Wrong About COVID and It Cost Lives.

I was wrong. We in the scientific community were wrong. And it cost lives.

I can see now that the scientific community from the CDC to the WHO to the FDA and their representatives, repeatedly overstated the evidence and misled the public about its own views and policies, including on natural vs. artificial immunity, school closures and disease transmission, aerosol spread, mask mandates, and vaccine effectiveness and safety, especially among the young. All of these were scientific mistakes at the time, not in hindsight. Amazingly, some of these obfuscations continue to the present day.

But perhaps more important than any individual error was how inherently flawed the overall approach of the scientific community was, and continues to be. It was flawed in a way that undermined its efficacy and resulted in thousands if not millions of preventable deaths.

What we did not properly appreciate is that preferences determine how scientific expertise is used, and that our preferences might be—indeed, our preferences were—very different from many of the people that we serve. We created policy based on our preferences, then justified it using data. And then we portrayed those opposing our efforts as misguided, ignorant, selfish, and evil.

We made science a team sport, and in so doing, we made it no longer science.

This is how they can begin to restore public trust, but statements like this one are few and far between.

OH: Alec Baldwin Was ‘Distracted’ on His Phone During ‘Rust’ Gun Training, Prosecutors Say. “Alec Baldwin “was not present” for a required firearms training before filming started for Rust, prosecutors said in documents officially charging the actor and producer with involuntary manslaughter on Tuesday. He was then provided on-set training, during which he was ‘distracted and talking on his cell phone to his family.'”