Author Archive: Stephen Green

HMM: Catastrophic Success: What if the Ukrainian Counteroffensive Achieves More than Expected?

If the counteroffensive is surprisingly successful, Putin will be forced to respond in one of two ways—negotiation or escalation. Given Putin’s belief in the value of a long-game scenario, his willingness to absorb significant costs, and the potentially disastrous domestic political consequences of unfavorable negotiations, it is more likely than not that Putin would choose escalation. In a situation where Russian forces are routed, Putin would face only two realistic escalation options: throw more human bodies at the Ukrainians or use a nuclear weapon.

In the case of the former option, Russia already appears to be preparing new rounds of mobilizations, with the Wagner Group restarting troop recruitment from Russian prisons. However, as was recently seen in Bakhmut and elsewhere, new Russian soldiers are poorly trained. Conscripts are thus often killed in droves—and not even the Russians have an infinite supply of human lives. New recruits could slow the tide of a Ukrainian advance, but if momentum is on Ukraine’s side, it may be unlikely these new recruits could decisively weigh in Russia’s favor.

That leaves nuclear escalation.

It’s an thoughtful article and not at all scaremongering. Worth a read.

UNEXPECTEDLY! Fed researchers: $15 minimum wage in Minneapolis and St. Paul boosted pay — but cost jobs.

The push to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour in both Minneapolis and St. Paul has successfully boosted the average worker’s hourly pay in both cities, but it has also led to sharp drops in the numbers of available jobs and hours worked, new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has found.

Many economists have reached similar conclusions about minimum wage increases in the past. Still, the size of the impacts the researchers measured — by comparing Minneapolis and St. Paul to data culled from other Minnesota cities from 2017 through 2021 — were eye-popping, especially in low-wage industries.

Especially? Really? Minimum wage laws have always put the squeeze on the entry-level positions teens need to get their first taste of the real world.

TEXAS: Three Cheers For The Death Star. “Left wing city councils that endanger their residents through stunts like defunding police and declaring themselves sanctuary cities had this coming.”

BLUE CITY BLUES: T-Mobile Shutters ‘Flagship’ San Fran Store As Mass Exodus Escalates. “T-Mobile has joined the increasing number of businesses that have closed up shop in downtown San Francisco. This is due to the progressive city leadership’s inability to restore law and order amid skyrocketing crime.”

Meanwhile, San Francisco district five supervisor has a solution:

https://twitter.com/deanpreston/status/1656023543333933057

Open season on the city’s retailers will continue until morale improves.

THIS SETTLEMENT KEEPS GETTING WORSE ALL THE TIME: Carlson was told by a member of the Fox board that he was taken off the air as part of the Dominion settlement, per Tucker’s legal team.

The $787 million settlement reached by the two parties came less than a week after it was revealed that Carlson was off the air, with his final show being the Friday after the settlement was announced.

In a letter from Carlson’s lawyers to Fox News, they argue that Carlson’s noncompete clause in his contract, which runs through 2025, is no longer valid, alleging Fox employees, including “Rupert Murdoch himself,” broke promises to Carlson “intentionally and with reckless disregard for the truth.”

Developing…

HMM: California Gov. Newsom declines to back reparations checks, says slavery’s legacy is ‘more than cash payments.’

“The Reparations Task Force’s independent findings and recommendations are a milestone in our bipartisan effort to advance justice and promote healing. This has been an important process, and we should continue to work as a nation to reconcile our original sin of slavery and understand how that history has shaped our country,” Newsom said in a statement to Fox News Digital.

While the Democratic governor applauded the task force’s work, he declined to endorse any specific recommendations, though he pledged to continue to “advance systemic changes that ensure an inclusive and equitable future for all Californians.”

He’s dodging.

HIGHER EDUCATION BUBBLE UPDATE: The DEI Rot At UT. “Christopher Rufo has obtained a cache of documents from the University of Texas, and if you’ve wondered how extensive the rot is at UT Austin, wonder no more.”

SKYNET SMILES: The Air Force is adding AI pilots to 6 F-16s. “The U.S. Air Force has announced plans to equip a small group of F-16 Fighting Falcons with artificial intelligence (AI) pilots, as part of the Project Viper Experimentation and Next-Gen Operations Mode, or VENOM. The news came just about a month after the branch announced an AI-piloted and heavily modified F-16 known as the X-62A successfully flew a variety of air-combat missions over the span of two weeks this past December.”