THE CHIP WARS: Japan Halting Photoresist To China? “I haven’t been able to verify this yet, but according to China Observer, ‘Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry may have escalated export controls on November 20-21, adding 12 types of core semiconductor materials and related services to its ‘End User List,’ placing about 110 semiconductor-related entities from mainland China under heightened scrutiny. Mainland China is more than 60% reliant on imports for photoresist, with ArF/EUV almost entirely dependent on Japan and the Netherlands.’
Author Archive: Stephen Green
December 22, 2025
SPACE: Japan’s H3 suffers second-stage anomaly, QZS-5 satellite lost.
The H3 rocket lifted off at 8:51 p.m. Eastern Dec. 22 (0151 UTC, Dec. 23) from Tanegashima Space Center carrying the Michibiki 5 (Quasi-Zenith Satellite System 5 (QZS-5)) satellite. The liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen first stage performed nominally, but issues with the second stage meant the satellite was not inserted into its intended geosynchronous transfer orbit.
A Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) press release later stated that the second stage engine’s second ignition failed to start normally and shut down prematurely. As a result QZS-5 could not be put into the planned orbit and the launch failed.
A post-launch press conference revealed that the first second stage engine cutoff occurred 27 seconds later than planned, while the second ignition was delayed by 15 seconds and terminated almost immediately after startup. Telemetry showed that hydrogen tank pressure in the second stage began falling during the first-stage burn, a behavior now under investigation.
That’s two failures in seven H3 launches, but the rocket only came into service about three years ago and reliability tends to increase over time.
DISPATCHES FROM THE BLUE ZONES:
BREAKING: Kamalpreet Singh, the ILLEGAL truck driver who reportedly caused a deadly crash in WA, has been RELEASED from prison after paying a $100,000 bond.
The money was then RETURNED to him after prosecutors failed to follow up on the case
WHAT?!?!pic.twitter.com/qtJmoGeQIE https://t.co/2g3QPh3PMG
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) December 22, 2025
2026 PREVIEW (SORT OF): Beware Of Central Economic Forecasts For 2026.
This is a central scenario that includes a lot of “dispersion,” and not just domestically. Internationally, the U.S. significantly outperforms other major economies. Hampered by structural rigidities, the eurozone and the United Kingdom remain trapped in a low-growth, low-investment equilibrium. With China’s efforts to upgrade its growth model progressing slowly, the U.S. will serve by far as the global economy’s primary engine—a concentration that creates its own set of risks.
As for the “fat tail” scenarios, their probabilities are roughly equal, offering reasons for both hope and anxiety. On the right-hand side, one finds a tantalizing vision of an economy that doesn’t merely grow but accelerates, while also expanding future capacity. In this scenario, faster-than-anticipated AI adoption, combined with robotics, is translated into tangible, economy-wide productivity gains, enabling the U.S. to pull further ahead of other major economies.
If this “productivity promise” materializes rapidly enough, the U.S. could experience a non-inflationary boom. Because the supply side expands rapidly enough to meet rising demand, inflation remains in check. This is a Goldilocks scenario on steroids: a technology-driven expansion that expands corporate margins and increases tax revenues, potentially alleviating fiscal pressures and enabling the Fed to cut rates more aggressively.
But equally probable is the downside scenario: not a standard recession born of exhausted demand, but a surge in volatility, stemming from financial instability, policy error, election-year politics, and geoeconomic developments.
Translation: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.
BRING BACK THE DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY: Time to ‘Spin Off’ the Navy.
Created by the National Security Act of 1947 the DoD was tasked with unifying and consolidating the management of the large armed forces establishment that emerged at the end of World War II. The act principally combined the Department of War (Army) with the Department of the Navy (Navy and Marine Corps) – two separate entities that had been constitutionally established and operated separately with different missions since the inception of our nation. The act also created a new military department, the Air Force, in recognition of the evolution and impact of air power over the previous decade. The Air Force itself was in fact a “spinoff” of sorts from the Army where it had begun as the Army Air Corps. Over the past 80 years the Department of Defense has effectively, but arguably not very efficiently, created the most lethal and advanced military in the world. However, over the past decade or so it has also been showing signs that its current structure is not producing a force that can sustain those characteristics in the face of adversaries with greater agility and deeper industrial capacity.
An alarming case in point is the DoN. Having been absorbed into the vast DoD structure, and subject to resource trade-offs of the overall defense enterprise, the DoN has lost its independence, and with it, its character and performance over the last several decades. This decline was not sudden, and it did not occur without noble efforts to resist the ill-effects of the Pentagon bureaucracy and the ever-growing attempts to centralize power in the office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). Admiral Hyman Rickover, for example, demonstrated that through sheer will, brilliance, and obstinance that a nuclear submarine program could be built without high-level corporate meddling from DoD. In the 1980s Secretary of the Navy John Lehman performed a similar feat, overcoming resistance from Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger, along with all the other DoD entities conspiring for a piece of the Navy’s financial pie, in his quest to construct a 600 ship navy. That navy, as is often the case with changing administration priorities, was quickly dismantled in the years following Lehman’s departure. The decline accelerated when the Cold War ended and naïve leaders believed that end of the Soviet Union would produce something aspirational, yet elusive, for ourselves and our allies called a “peace dividend.” Our adversaries, both large and small, had different ideas and they have seized upon our retreat from maritime dominance to assert their own.
Yes, the Navy requires its own Department again — and maybe “Nuke the Pentagon” while we’re at it.
RESET EXPECTATIONS: CNBC anchor who blasted Trump’s ‘insane’ tariffs is now shocked by ‘very, very low’ inflation.
Liesman has been among the most vocal critics of Trump’s tariff strategy (3). Back in March, he warned bluntly: “I’m going to say this at the risk of my job. What President Trump is doing is insane,” adding that “there’s no bounds around President Trump.”
But on Thursday, as he dug deeper into the latest report, even the month-over-month figures looked encouraging.
“I have not looked at the internals — I’ll look at them now — but it suggests that the internals are good as well,” he said. “Let’s see. … Seasonally adjusted index for all items, less food and energy, rose 0.2% over the two months. So correct my math here … but 0.2 divided by two is 0.1. So therefore that’s a very, very low monthly rate.”
Liesman wasn’t alone in his reaction.
Exit quote: “I think the president will take this as good news. The investors will think that interest rates will get cut more, so it was positive news — there’s no other way to spin it.”
HOW IS “SANCTUARY” NOT AIDING AND ABETTING? ICE Seeks Custody of Illegal Alien Killers in Sanctuary Districts.
THIS SEEMS NEWSWORTHY:
0 AP stories on Jeanette Marken
0 PBS stories on Jeanette Marken
0 NYT stories on Jeanette Marken
0 NPR stories on Jeanette Marken
0 WSJ stories on Jeanette Marken
0 BBC stories on Jeanette Marken
0 CNN stories on Jeanette Marken
0 WAPO stories on… pic.twitter.com/KogLaTWrWd— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) December 21, 2025
DISPATCHES FROM THE EDUCATION APOCALYPSE: MSU Denver rejects Standard American English as ‘white supremacy.’
The Metropolitan State University of Denver (MSU) Writing Center has officially rejected the use of Standard American English (SAE) as part of the program, calling it a “social construct that privileges white communities” as explained on the university’s webpage devoted to “linguistic white supremacy.”
But what the university claims is an effort towards “anti-racism” could well instead run afoul of President Trump’s executive order aimed at discriminatory practices rooted in Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives on college campuses.
MSU is situated on the Auraria Campus in downtown Denver, which also includes the University of Colorado at Denver (CU Denver) and Community College of Denver (CCD). The public university boasts a student population of over 17,000, including both undergraduate and graduate level coursework.
The MSU Writing Center says SAE, which has been taught in schools since the 1800s, promotes white supremacy in claiming there is a “correct” and “standard” way to write and speak American English.
So another good way to keep minority kids from advancing is to lock them into linguistic ghettos.
RECYCLING OVERKILL: Russia’s Space Program Just Took Another Embarrassing Hit. “I look at the revised ROS and wonder how to say ‘vaporware’ in Russian?”
CHANGE: Fairfax County Public Schools Forfeits Case Challenging Its Transgender Policies.
Fairfax County’s public school district’s leaders capitulated in court after a student challenged their pro-transgender policies in court, offering hope that the era of so-called “transgender rights” at the expense of everything else is coming to a close.
Last month, Fairfax County Public Schools, represented by Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP, extended a Rule 68 Offer of Judgment to a former student, identified as “Jane Doe,” over its bathrooms and pronouns policies. Virginia’s largest public school district granted the plaintiff $50 and attorney’s fees associated with the case.
Jane Doe, represented by America First Legal, filed the lawsuit asserting that the district violated the First and Fourteenth Amendments, Title IX, and the Virginia Constitution by prioritizing “gender identity” over biological sex and religious conscience. The plaintiff had encountered a boy in the girls’ bathroom while at school, which school policy permits. The district’s code of conduct stipulates bathroom and locker room use is based on “gender identity” rather than biological sex. It also mandates preferred pronoun usage.
In response to the district’s decision not to fight the case, Jane Doe’s mother told IW Features, “My sincere thanks goes to my daughter’s legal team at America First Legal, who were the only adults during this whole ordeal to listen to my pleas for help to keep my daughter safe while she was at school.”
It’s nice to see a little sanity prevail during the Crazy Years.
KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Nicki Minaj Has a MAGA Moment, Dem False Narratives Hardest Hit. “Now let’s contrast Bret Stephens’ effete snobbery and lack of mental wellness with the thoughtful words of the best selling female rapper of all time. Nicki Minaj appeared with Erika Kirk at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest this past weekend. I think she surprised a lot of people.”
CONSEQUENCES:
BREAKING: In wake of our campaign, UN Hamas apologist Francesca Albanese has been removed from Georgetown University.
L: Her “Affiliate Scholar” page
R: Now deleted https://t.co/AyMbbOPhosThank you, @Georgetown. It's time to expel all terror supporters from our universities. pic.twitter.com/091j1et3wW
— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) December 21, 2025
CHUTZPAH: North Korea Urges Curbing Japan’s Nuclear Ambitions.
North Korea said Japan’s ambition for possession of nuclear weapons should be “thoroughly curbed,” state media KCNA reported on Sunday.
Japan is showing the intention to possess nuclear weapons explicitly by saying it needs to review the three non-nuclear principles, KCNA said citing a commentary of North Korea’s foreign-policy official.
Japan began making such comments actively as soon as the United States approved a request from South Korea for building a nuclear submarine, the media said.
Telling Beijing we’d greenlight Japanese nukes might have caused Beijing to lean hard enough on Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program. But that was 20-plus years ago — and an opportunity squandered.
GOODER AND HARDER, CALIFORNIA:
California is the Fraud Capital of America:
$32 billion in unemployment fraud
$24 billion in homeless funds "lost"
$18 billion on nonexistent bullet train
$650 million on scrapped 911 system.A scathing report from the State Auditor just identified 8 separate state agencies as…
— Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) December 21, 2025
That ought to disqualify Newsom for higher office, but of course, Dems don’t play that way.
HAPPY NEW YEAR: Trump touts low Christmas season gasoline prices, and analysts say they should hold into 2026.
According to AAA, the average gasoline price in the U.S. was at $2.88 per gallon on Friday. According to the live price on GasBuddy, which uses crowdsourcing data, American motorists were paying an average $2.87 per gallon on Friday morning.
These are the cheapest gasoline prices consumers have seen in December since 2020, AAA reported. GasBuddy predicts gasoline prices will hit around $2.79 per gallon on Christmas Day.
David Blackmon, author of the “Energy Absurdities” Substack and an analyst with more than 40 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, told Just the News that the low prices are a function of global crude oil prices, over which the president doesn’t have a lot of control. However, he said, the Trump administration’s friendlier regulatory environment is contributing to the boon for consumers.
The regulatory climate matters bigly, Mr. Blackmon: New study recommends loosening California oil regulations to avoid skyrocketing fuel prices.
PUT THAT WAY, HONESTLY IT MAKES IT SOUND SLIGHTLY LESS WORSE: The Minnesota Fraud Scandal Is So Much Worse When You Put It This Way. “The amount of money that’s been stolen is larger than the entire GDP of Somalia.”
December 21, 2025
GUNS FOR ME BUT NOT FOR THEE:
Isn’t it ironic that this bloke needs about 25 people escorting him around, all armed to the teeth, just to get in and out of a public memorial?
Every single one of them has a gun to protect him — the same tools he’s happy to restrict or take away from everyone else. The… https://t.co/ZW3OmUSdMo
— The Dusty Bogan (@TheDustyBogan) December 21, 2025
WILD:
Well, it wasn't six months to go worldwide.
Ukrainian drone armed merchant raiders are global already 24 hours later.
Maritime insurance risk underwriters are going to be having a double handed polish heart attack. https://t.co/eKx1PE0unV
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) December 20, 2025
December 20, 2025
“HISTORY IS ONE DAMN THING AFTER ANOTHER,” BUT MAYBE ESPECIALLY NOW:
Amazing thread from 2018 that ended up being Wrong About Everything.
SJWs lost, spectacularly, and undid norms that allowed what they did to be turned back ferociously on them.
It is true we all have to deal with the mess that was made by it. https://t.co/UNE9RQ5O7r
— Coddled Affluent Professional (@feelsdesperate) December 20, 2025