Archive for 2023

JOBS: Payrolls Soar By 339K, Blowing Away Highest Estimate, Even As People Employed Tumble By 310K Sending Unemployment Rate Higher.

While the Establishment survey was a blowout beat and the strongest print since January, the Household survey unexpectedly tumbled by the most since April 22 as it plunged by 310K jobs.

One possible reason for the massive divergence: the birth death model “added” 231K jobs in March. These are not actual jobs, but merely an assumption by the BLS as to how many new businesses were created and hired workers based on statistical assumptions. Again, these are not actual jobs. [Emphasis added]

The less volatile (and manipulated) participation rate came in as expected at 62.6%, unchanged from last month.

And another paradox: despite the blowout payrolls number, in May both full-time and part-time workers dropped, by 220K and 23K, respectively.

Never believe the headline numbers.

Plus this warning from CNBC:

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: No Pity for Sanctuary Cities That Are Forced to Put Up or Shut Up. “We have discussed many times the fact that, whenever one awful Democrat is removed from power, a worse one will step in and fill the void. The current prime example of that is the city of Chicago, which gave commie mayor Lori Lightfoot the boot after one term, only to replace her with Brandon Johnson, a teachers’ union puppet.”

WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE FAULT IN THE SUBTITLES. THOSE RESPONSIBLE HAVE BEEN SACKED: Air Force colonel backtracks over his warning about how AI could go rogue and kill its human operators.

An Air Force colonel who oversees AI testing used what he now says is a hypothetical to describe a military AI going rogue and killing its human operator in a simulation in a presentation at a professional conference.

But after reports of the talk emerged Thursday, the colonel said that he misspoke and that the “simulation” he described was a “thought experiment” that never happened.

Speaking at a conference last week in London, Col. Tucker “Cinco” Hamilton, head of the US Air Force’s AI Test and Operations, warned that AI-enabled technology can behave in unpredictable and dangerous ways, according to a summary posted by the Royal Aeronautical Society, which hosted the summit.

As an example, he described a simulation where an AI-enabled drone would be programmed to identify an enemy’s surface-to-air missiles (SAM). A human was then supposed to sign off on any strikes.

The problem, according to Hamilton, is that the AI would do its own thing — blow up stuff — rather than listen to its operator.

“The system started realizing that while they did identify the threat,” Hamilton said at the May 24 event, “at times the human operator would tell it not to kill that threat, but it got its points by killing that threat. So what did it do? It killed the operator. It killed the operator because that person was keeping it from accomplishing its objective.”

But in an update from the Royal Aeronautical Society on Friday, Hamilton admitted he “misspoke” during his presentation. Hamilton said the story of a rogue AI was a “thought experiment” that came from outside the military, and not based on any actual testing.

“We’ve never run that experiment, nor would we need to in order to realize that this is a plausible outcome,” Hamilton told the Society. “Despite this being a hypothetical example, this illustrates the real-world challenges posed by AI-powered capability.”

In a statement to Insider, Air Force spokesperson Ann Stefanek also denied that any simulation took place.

Skynet smiles, shouts, “Squirrel!”

WELL, YES: Moscow does not have a ‘veto against NATO enlargement,’ NATO’s Stoltenberg says.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday that all NATO allies agree that Russia cannot prevent Ukraine’s eventual membership in the military alliance.

Speaking to reporters ahead of an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Oslo, Norway, Stoltenberg said all allies agreed that “NATO’s door is open for new members.”

“All allies also agree that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance, and all allies agree that it is for the NATO allies and Ukraine to decide when Ukraine becomes a member,” he said.

“It is not for Moscow to have a veto against NATO enlargement, but most importantly, all allies agree that the most urgent and important task now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation. President [Vladimir] Putin and Russia must not win this war.”

There are two issues here, one glossed over by Stoltenberg.

The first is that a defensive alliance that allows rivals veto power over its membership isn’t much of a defensive alliance. The other — glossed over — is whether or not it is particularly wise to invite in a particular member.

DON SURBER: Mock Them Till They Cry. “Snopes swooped in to tell the world that a parody account’s tweets are a parody.”

To be fair, so is Snopes.

WE’RE SUING THEM!!:  Yesterday, the American Civil Rights Project on behalf of the Californians for Equal Rights Foundation et al. filled a complaint in court against the City and County of San Francisco et al. in response to their blatantly illegal and unconstitutional race-based guaranteed income program.

(Full disclosure:  I am chairman of the board of the American Civil Rights Project and executive vice president of the Californians for Equal Rights Foundation, and I’m feeling pretty good this morning.)

HIGHER EDUCATION BUBBLE UPDATE: ‘Key Reform:’ Virginia to ease degree requirements for state jobs. “Virginia will eliminate degree requirements and preferences for nearly 90% of classified jobs — salaried positions subject to the Virginia Personnel Act — in line with a growing private sector trend that looks at experience and other training as well as degrees when hiring. The change by the Richmond region’s largest employer will take effect July 1 for the roughly 20,000 openings the state advertises over the course of a year.”

As higher ed’s credentialing/gatekeeping function diminishes, it may be forced to provide actual value.

GROOMING, STRAIGHT UP: Elementary sex ed promoted puberty blockers, pubic hair art. “Fourth and fifth graders at Lincoln Elementary in the Olympia School District received sex education lessons on May 9. Parents said the school told them that the lessons were district-approved. But students were given unapproved lesson plans. Materials presented by Planned Parenthood included drawings of pubic hair shaped like an animal, and students were told they could pick from a number of contrived genders to identify as. Some of the materials promoted medication to block puberty.”

FROM M. C. A. HOGARTH:  Zafiil Volume 1: FireBorn UnPainted.

Zafiil Volume 1: FireBorn UnPainted by [M.C.A. Hogarth]

Enter into the heart of an alien race in the first historical novel set in the Peltedverse…

Thousands of years ago, the God of the Faulfenza promised His people He would send a messiah to lead them into a Golden Age, alongside the Others: aliens who would be to them as brothers and sisters. Not a generation has passed without longing for the fulfillment of that Promise.

Zafiil Paidiiza Qodii has dreamed of finding the Others since she was a child, a dream that spurred her to train as leader of one of the Faulfenza’s galactic scout teams. Against all odds, hers is the ship that makes the prophesied discovery–and reveals the cost of the God’s promises, and the part she is destined to play in His designs…

Zafiil: FireBorn Unpainted begins the epic saga of the Faulfenza’s first contact with the Pelted Alliance, and unveils at last the mysteries of one of the Peltedverse’s most beloved alien races.