JAPAN’S OLD AGE CRISIS, AND OURS:
But even if the government succeeds in goosing the birth rate, the effects will be felt decades from now. Japan has an immediate problem that dates back to policies adopted in 1948. People over 75 now make up 15 percent of the population, and they don’t have a lot of kids to take care of them. Japan’s postwar baby boom lasted only about two years. By contrast, the U.S. experienced high birth rates from 1946 to 1964.
In 1948, the Diet passed the Eugenic Protection Law. It made abortions legal and cheap, about $10. “Critics assert that it is easier for a woman to avoid an unwanted child in this way than to have her tonsils removed,” The New York Times reported in 1964. “One result of the practice has been the virtual elimination of illegitimate births.”
The bill also promoted contraception, establishing “eugenic protection consultation offices” throughout the country. They provided marriage counseling and gave couples “guidance in adequate methods of contraception.” Local governments trained midwives and nurses to encourage family planning. Employers, unions, and nonprofits pushed the idea of smaller families and helped spread information about how to achieve them.
Children are a lot of trouble. Successful societies tend to have a lot of cultural institutions and pressures to ensure that people have them. When my brother was doing research in northern Nigeria in the early 90s, one of his colleagues was studying a group of traditional cross-dressers, who had been around for centuries and played various ceremonial roles. They were gay, but pretty much all of them had wives and children, because that was what a man did, regardless of sexual preferences. The idea of not having kids was vaguely revolting to them. That’s how strong the cultural pressure to have kids was.
Without such pressures, even many straight people will decide they don’t want kids. This may or may not make their lives better overall, but a low birth rate society is generally not a healthy society.