Archive for 2022

OPEN THREAD: Make it work.

W. JOSEPH CAMPBELL: Some midterm polls were on-target — but finding which pollsters and poll aggregators to believe can be challenging.

Forecasts posted at Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com diverged from outcomes somewhat less markedly than those of RealClearPolitics — but still anticipated closer Senate races than what transpired in Colorado, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

Expectations that Republicans would score sweeping victories no doubt were buoyed by the predictions of RealClearPolitics. It projected that the GOP stood to gain three Senate seats and control the upper house by 53 seats to 47 — an outcome that proved illusory.

While hedged, the final, so-called “Deluxe” forecast posted at Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com and updated on Election Day did little to dampen expectations of a GOP wave. The forecast said Republicans had a 59% chance of winning control of the Senate.

“To be blunt,” Silver wrote, “59 percent is enough of an edge that if you offered to let me bet on Republicans at even money, I’d take it.”

In other words: Don’t Expect Pollsters to Break Their Losing Streak.

DRIVER ARRESTED IN CRASH INTO LA COUNTY SHERIFF’S RECRUITS: “Authorities have arrested a 22-year-old driver on suspicion of attempted murder after he veered into the wrong lane and struck dozens of Los Angeles County sheriff’s academy recruits running in formation. Nicholas Joseph Gutierrez was arrested Wednesday for investigation of attempted murder on a peace officer, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department said in a statement Thursday. Investigators did not elaborate on why they were pursing the attempted murder charge, or say whether they have evidence leading them to believe he did this intentionally.”

THEY WERE NEVER THE SAME AFTER PETER GABRIEL LEFT: Crypto lender Genesis had sought emergency loan of $1 billion. “‘Genesis had been exploring all possible options amidst the liquidity crunch resulting from the FTX news,’ the company said in an emailed statement to Reuters, adding that it took the decision to suspend redemptions after reviewing a number of options. The implosion of FTX has rippled across the industry, hobbling liquidity at firms with exposure to what was once one of the world’s biggest crypto exchanges, and prompting investigations by regulators in several countries.”

FTX: Bombshell court filing suggests Sam Bankman-Fried ‘transferred digital assets to Bahamas government.’

The collapsed cryptocurrency exchange platform FTX claims former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried ‘hacked’ its systems after filing for bankruptcy to transfer ‘digital assets’ to Bahamian regulators.

FTX lodged the motion in the US Bankruptcy Court in Delaware on Thursday saying it had evidence to suggest the Bahamas government ordered Bankman-Fried, 30, to gain ‘unauthorized access’ while in custody.

‘In connection with investigating a hack on Sunday, November 13, Mr. Bankman-Fried and [FTX co-founder Gary] Wang, stated in recorded and verified texts that ‘Bahamas regulators’ instructed that certain post-petition transfers of Debtor assets be made by Mr. Wang and Mr. Bankman-Fried (who the Debtors understand were both effectively in the custody of Bahamas authorities) and that such assets were ‘custodied on FireBlocks under control of Bahamian gov’t,’ the filing states.

‘The Debtors thus have credible evidence that the Bahamian government is responsible for directing unauthorized access to the Debtors’ systems for the purpose of obtaining digital assets of the Debtors—that took place after the commencement of these cases.’

FTX, which is based in the Bahamas due to its relaxed tax laws, collapsed on November 11 in a scandal that has cost its investors more than $11billion.

Shady accounting practices at FTX? I just can’t see it myself:

Meanwhile, in the “it’s not a cult” category: Sam Bankman-Fried ex Caroline Ellison made ‘foray’ into ‘Chinese harem’ polyamory.

Disgraced Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison penned graphic blog posts about polyamory and masochism before the implosion of her FTX-linked cryptocurrency hedge fund.

Ellison — who dated FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried — wrote candidly about her “‘foray into poly” on her now-deleted Tumblr account back in February 2020, according to the Daily Mail.

The post — along with a series of other sexualized entries — was unearthed by the tabloid just days after CoinDesk claimed Ellison, 28, and Bankman-Fried, 30, were part of a 10-person “cabal of roommates” that managed operations for FTX and Alameda from a luxury penthouse in the Bahamas. CoinDesk claimed the group “are, or used to be, in romantic relationships with each other.”

“When I first started my foray into poly, I thought of it as a radical break from my trad past,” Ellison allegedly wrote in the Tumblr entry. “But tbh I’ve come to decide the only acceptable style of poly is best characterized as something like ‘imperial Chinese harem.’ “

The Stanford grad continued, “None of this non-hierarchical bulls–t; everyone should have a ranking of their partners, people should know where they fall on the ranking, and there should be vicious power struggles for the higher ranks.”

Finally (for now): Sam Bankman-Fried’s media outlets must come clean.

[S]ince the scandal broke, Bankman-Fried has been treated to two relative puff pieces on his philanthropic efforts in the Washington Post and the New York Times. Both drew severe backlash on social media for seeming to handle him with kid gloves.

The coverage of Bankman-Fried and the FTX collapse, which has resulted in the disappearance of millions of dollars invested into FTX and crypto currencies, must be called into question, given his connections and donations to corporate media outlets. A media storyline is forming that while Bankman-Fried did lose billions almost overnight of FTX user and investment money, his heart is still in the right place when it comes to fighting for the same global causes that liberal editorial boards agree with.

Putting it bluntly — every media organization that accepted funding from Bankman-Fried should come clean and offer full transparency as to the nature of their agreement with him and their financial arrangements. As Semafor’s Max Tani reported, these grants and their funding mechanisms have been put on hold. ProPublica announced that they had received “the first tranche of the $5 million grant in February of 2022. The remaining two-thirds of the grant are due, respectively by April 1, 2023 and by April 1, 2024.” Happy April Fools’ Day indeed.

This WaPo headline on FTX — written after its collapse — is  an absolute classic:

TEACH WOMEN NOT TO RAPE! (CONT’D): Former Trigg Teacher Accepts Plea Deal In Sexual Abuse Case. “A plea deal has been reached in the sexual abuse case of a former Trigg County High School teacher accused of having an inappropriate relationship with a student. Ashley Wells, of Hopkinsville, was indicted in by Christian County grand jury in April on one count of first-degree sexual abuse after a state police investigation that began in January into allegations of sexual contact between a teacher and student.”

ANDREW FERGUSON: Good Riddance, Madame Speaker.

When rubbed the wrong way, she can summon her own kind of clarity. My favorite instance, and our third and final token, was related in a recent biography by Molly Ball. In August 2014, during yet another crisis on the southern border, a Republican congressman named Tom Marino took the House floor to chide Pelosi, then the minority leader, for ignoring it—a sign of her weakness, he said.

“I did research on it,” Marino said. “You might want to try it, Madame Leader. … That’s one thing you don’t do.”

Outraged, Pelosi flew across the floor toward Marino, arms raised.

Now, we all have our readymade insults for people we find contemptible—from chucklehead to asshole and beyond. We tend to describe the opposite of what we see ourselves to be.

Pelosi uncorked her own favorite.

“You,” she shouted at Marino, “are an insignificant person! You are an insignificant person!” Her colleagues, according to Ball, had to pull her away.

What a picture it makes! It is how I prefer to remember her, the first woman elected speaker of the House, a colossus in the politics of this century—ferocious in her pant suit, the back vents of the jacket flapping, the padded shoulders heaving, the tiny fists balled in anger and hoisted skyward. The image defines her long struggle against the great enemy insignificance, and more important, against all the little people who are themselves insignificant, and whose ranks—unhappily but finally—she now joins.

Beyond that, you have to read the article to find out what’s in it.