DID REPUBLICANS BLOW IT BY EMPHASIZING THE CARAVAN? Pollster Dave Winston dug deep into the 2018 midterm election results data and came away thinking things could have turned it quite differently.

“Here are the takeaways. The Friday before the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans were handed a gift in the form of the November monthly jobs report. Described by a former economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden as ‘pretty much everything you could want in a monthly jobs report,’ it was a clear sign that Republicans’ center-right economic policies were moving the economy forward, affecting not just job growth, but finally wage growth as well. And the timing couldn’t have been better, coming just four days before the election,” Winston writes in Roll Call.

But instead of making that great economic news the GOP’s closing argument, the migrant caravan heading north through Mexico to the U.S. border took center stage. Independents, who decided the election broke for Democrats by 12 points, according to Winston. I’m not sure I entirely agree with Winston’s analysis but years ago I worked with him at the RNC and have no doubt his analysis should get a close look.