Author Archive: Stephen Green

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: New Republican House Majority Is a Driverless Clown Car. “The red trickle Republican majority in the House of Representatives has finally arrived, ladies and gentlemen. Everything is going to be better now, right? We finally have some leverage to push back against the Democrats in the Senate and White House. Can’t we all just feel the freedom again?”

THOMAS KLINGENSTEIN: DeSantis Goes to War.

In evoking Churchill’s speech, DeSantis lets us know that the woke regime is bearing down on America. In the urgent cadences of war, DeSantis tells us that America will not survive unless she defeats the woke regime. He believes this regime is so evil and powerful that he can, without bathos, compare it to the Nazi regime.

DeSantis has made a good start. He has told us that we are at war with a deadly regime, the woke regime. You cannot win a war unless you know you are in one.

But at some point soon, he must go further. He must show a voting majority of Americans that wokeism is the challenge of our generation, as Nazism was the challenge of the WWII generation and Communism for two generations thereafter.

And he must back up his claim. He has given us at least one piece of substantial evidence: in large numbers, people are fleeing their homes. Still, we need more. We shall not address the problem with the right strategies and people or the necessary resolve until we believe the country’s life truly is at stake. DeSantis needs to put America on a war footing.

If you didn’t catch any of the DeSantis inaugural yesterday, it looked absolutely presidential — which you can be sure was no accident.

YOU DON’T SAY: St. Louis Fed Quietly Finds US Is Now In A Recession.

In recent weeks, we have seen a burst of unexpected truthiness out of various regional Fed banks, a sharp contrast to the constant barrage of prevarication out of the Federal Reserve.

First, it was the Philadelphia Fed which effectively revised what was according to the BLS a gain of 1.1 million jobs to just 10,500 jobs, meaning that the Fed was looking at erroneously overstated, arguably politicized data, as it unleashed its burst of 75bps rate hikes in June… which happened just as June jobs number turned negative.

Then, a few days later, the Cleveland Fed suggested that the Fed’s entire inflation view is wrong, relying on core CPI (and PCE) data that is woefully, even dangerously, delayed – in some cases lagging market data by up to 12 months, and suggesting that rent inflation – a core component of shelter and OER inflation which is arguably the most important component of “sticky” US service inflation – is actually far lower if measured correctly.

The assertion that inflation might actually be lower than reported — than experienced — is specious at best. But this is from ZeroHedge, where they seem to love easy money.

That aside, it’s nice to see various Fed banks finally catching up to where the rest of us were months ago.

HUMAN AREN’T OBSOLETE YET: Students earn As on tests, essays with ChatGPT artificial intelligence. “Davinci doesn’t advance any arguments of its own – it merely recounts claims that it encountered in its research. What Davinci has really produced is a book report – not an essay that shows some evidence of critical thinking.”

VODKAPUNDIT PRESENTS YOUR WEEKLY INSANITY WRAP: Eugenics Experts Advise Having Sex with Short People.

Plus:

  • Grandpa is in the garden, growing flowers, literally.
  • A LibsOfTikTok video you can’t watch all the way through.
  • “Woke AI is coming.”

So much more at the link, you’d have to be crazy to miss it.

EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY: The Looming Financial Contagion. “The fact that the world did not experience a systemic financial crisis in 2022 is a minor miracle, given the surge in inflation and interest rates, not to mention a massive increase in geopolitical risk. But with public and private debt having risen to record levels during the now-bygone era of ultra-low interest rates, and recession risks high, the global financial system faces a huge stress test. A crisis in an advanced economy – for example, Japan or Italy – would be difficult to contain.”

Related: Up to a third of the world could face a recession in 2023.

GOALS: SpaceX will try to follow record-breaking 2022 with busier 2023.

SpaceX has shattered the record for launches in a calendar year by a single rocket type while making large strides toward getting the successor vehicle off the ground, despite a few struggles with Falcon 9 launch delays and Starship testing mishaps.

The record launch cadence is planned to be broken again in 2023, with as many as 100 launches planned according to Elon Musk. Starship, the eventual successor to the Falcon 9, did not fly this year as had been planned but is currently on track for its first orbital test flight as early as the first quarter of 2023.

The Falcon 9 Block 5, the current operational workhorse of the SpaceX rocket fleet, launched 60 times in 2022, with all flights successfully completing their missions. This cadence has set an all-time US and worldwide record for flights by a single type in one calendar year. The previous record was set by the Soviet Soyuz-U launcher in 1979, with 45 successful launches out of 47 overall that year.

SpaceX had a goal of 50 launches in 2022, and blew right past that.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Arizona’s Doomsday Clock Is Ticking Now That Crazy Katie Hobbs Is in Charge. “The leftist creep in California didn’t happen overnight, but times are different now. Democrats no longer pretend they aren’t socialists–they fly that freak flag out in the open with glee. Obviously, Hobbs can’t shove the state off of the leftist cliff on her own, but having a wild card like that at the top could accelerate the makeover.”