FINGERS CROSSED: Why Putin Won’t Invade Ukraine.

Risk aversion. Vladimir Putin undoubtedly would like to project an image similar to that of the brave bogatyrs who populate Slavic mythology, but his operating style more closely resembles the behavior of a different regional archetype: the cunning peasant who plays a weak hand well.

Putin has maintained power for two decades by standing up to the West without taking big chances. Invading a nation of 40 million where four out of five inhabitants are non-Russian would entail incalculable uncertainties—uncertainties that might ultimately endanger Putin’s hold on power. Taking such risks would be out of character.

You break it, you own it. That’s what Secretary of State Colin Powell warned President Bush before the U.S. invaded Iraq, a formulation that has come to be known as the Pottery Barn rule. An invasion of Ukraine would require Russia to occupy part or all of Europe’s poorest, most corrupt country.

Assuming that Moscow does not envision genocidal extermination of non-Russians, it would then have to subsidize a restive developing nation that is recovering from the effects of war. That burden would persist indefinitely, imposing big costs on the Russian state for returns that are likely to be quite modest.

Much more at the link.

CHRIS QUEEN: EU Scrooges Wind Up With Eggnog on Their Faces After Trying to Ban the Word ‘Christmas.’

Post-Christian rule didn’t work out for Europe very well — to say the least — under the Nazis or the Soviets. There’s little reason to think it will turn out well under the EU, either.

HEINLEIN’S CRAZY YEARS (CONT’D): These universities are paying for menstrual products in men’s bathrooms.

IT WAS A SHORT TRIP: Jussie Smollett’s Takes the Stand and His Story Goes From Ridiculous to Outrageous.

RETURN OF THE PRIMITIVE: Critical Race Trove From California District Tells Students How To Use Witchcraft On People Who Say ‘All Lives Matter.’ “One section titled ‘Hex’ tells the reader, ‘Hexing people is an important way to get out anger and frustration.’ It becomes increasingly deranged, suggesting that those who say ‘all lives matter’ or commit ‘microaggressions,’ should be targeted. ‘Write your own hex poem, cursing that person,’ it instructs.”

BAD-ASS SANTA: Santa Gets a Pistol Permit. Liberals Go Nuts.

COUNTRIES ENGAGING IN GLOBAL BIOLOGICAL WARFARE SHOULDN’T HOST THE OLYMPICS, PERIOD: China Threatens U.S. Over Expected Diplomatic Olympic Boycott: ‘China Will Take Firm Countermeasures.’

THE WAR ON FAMILIES: California School Bribes Boy to Get COVID Vaccine and Not Tell His Parents.

THAT’S THE PLAN, YES: Twitter’s New ‘Privacy’ Policy Could Destroy Its Value for Decentralized Citizen Journalism.

“Why give legacy media a stranglehold over information that Twitter at its best is great for sharing?” Reason’s Brian Doherty asks.

Because both Twitter and the legacy media are threatened by the citizen journalism Twitter used to enable.

HE NEEDS MORE TIME TO INVENT THEM: Biden Misses Deadline to Provide Congress Afghanistan Withdrawal Details.

81 MILLION VOTES: I&I/TIPP Poll Stunner: Just 22% Of Americans Want Joe Biden To Run For President Again. “Even Democrats seem less than enthused about Biden holding the top spot. Just 37% want him there. And only 16% give Harris the nod as presidential standard-bearer, alarming given that Vice President Harris is next in line to be president should Biden not complete his term in office.”

If Biden isn’t going to run again, he’ll have to announce within the next 12-18 months (18 would really be pushing it) to give Democrat contenders time enough to spin up their money machines and ground organizations.

The resulting scramble — against the backdrop of a failed-but-sitting Democrat president, no less — would be delicious.

VODKAPUNDIT PRESENTS YOUR WEEKLY INSANITY WRAP: Media Frenzy Over Fake ‘White Supremacy’ Protest Hyped by AI FaceBot (Really). “Apparently, a hundred or so members of the white supremacy group marched through Washington. More would have shown up, but due to supply chain disruptions, the Feds couldn’t buy enough new pairs of Dockers.”

Plus:

• San Francisco restaurant does an about-face, suddenly re-loves the police
• Joe Biden says he will rescue you from Ukraine, has already forgotten Kabul
• Trump on Milley: “That’s when I realized he was a f****** idiot.”

So much more at the link, you’d have to be crazy to miss it.

JOANNE JACOBS: Districts use Covid $ to protect status quo. “A few districts are downsizing to match the fall in per-pupil revenue, but federal Covid aid is allowing districts to keep ‘under-enrolled schools open and fully staffed in the hopes that students come back.’ That’s a dangerous gamble.”

More likely it’s a cynical cash-grab.

LIKE A DROWNING PERSON DESPERATELY CLINGING TO AN ANVIL: Vulnerable House Democrats Finally Decide to Focus on Policy over Trump.

Their policies aren’t popular.

HMM: SpaceX Begins Building Orbital Starship Launch Pad in Unexpected Location.

SpaceX aims to launch the first orbital test of a full-stack Starship as soon as January. But instead of the Texas “Starbase” facility where prototypes of Starship’s upper stage have been made and tested, the orbital flight will launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, CEO Elon Musk said Friday.

“Construction of Starship orbital launch pad at the Cape has begun,” Musk tweeted. In later comments he confirmed that the launch pad is located at the historic Launch Complex 39A, the same pad used for SpaceX commercial crew flights to the International Space Station for NASA.

“39A is hallowed spaceflight ground—no place more deserving of a Starship launch pad!” Musk explained in a separate tweet. “Will have similar, but improved, ground systems and tower to Starbase.”

Well, it isn’t like SLS needs 39A anytime soon.

CAUSE, MEET EFFECT: Liberals Bemoan ‘Random’ Violent Attacks in Places Where They Want Fewer Cops.

DON’T UNDERESTIMATE JOE’S ABILITY TO F*** THINGS UP: Biden’s proposals spark phase 2 of supply chain crisis.

Our economic woes are not going away anytime soon, and President Biden seems to be doing his best to prolong them. New restrictions on travel to the United States, especially for the transit of cargo, coupled with a newly emerged strain of COVID, may cause the frail economy to spiral into 2022. The White House’s policy errors will further exacerbate the delicate national recovery from the pandemic and become the greatest contributing factor to a worsening of our supply chain crisis and inflation.

While information surrounding the omicron variant is still emerging, if officials respond with more spending and lockdowns in the name of “emergency measures” it could lead to further pain for American households and a worsening supply situation — at a time when our nation simply cannot afford it.

With the holidays around the corner, Americans are experiencing inflated prices, goods shortages, and long shipping times. Right now would be the perfect time to simplify the transport of needed goods from the United States’s No. 1 trading partner: Canada. More than $300 billion in truck freight came into the U.S. from Canada in 2020, and the loss of any significant portion of this will further hike prices and cause more empty shelves. Canadian and international goods arrive through our border crossings, and the White House is imposing a stiff travel restriction for all residents entering the country. Not only do tourists and visitors need to show proof of vaccination, but so do truck drivers. The new regulation, taking effect on Jan. 22, will further ensnare the arrival of both raw materials and finished goods into the country.

Considering that more than half of the freight entering the U.S. from Canada comes via truck, the effects will be immediate. Approximately 20 percent of Canada’s truckers are unvaxxed. Even worse, it comes a full year into the Biden administration and the general rollout of vaccines. The White House is consciously breaking its promise to shut down the virus and not the economy.

You might call it a crisis by design.

HE DOES UNDERSTAND SOCIAL MEDIA: Trump’s Social Media Platform Gets $1 Billion Investment Boost, Dems Get Nervous.

Related: Devin Nunes to Retire, Will Run Trump’s New Media Company.

BIDEN’S BUNGLED BUGOUT: Remember how Biden abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban? The country is now on the brink of mass starvation. A million children might starve to death this winter.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF: Democrats’ Unhinged Trump Hatred Isn’t Really Working Out Well for Them. “The Trump Derangement Syndrome symptom that had the most damaging consequences was the ability of the Democrats to convince themselves that Joe Biden was a functioning human being who would bring some overwhelmingly presidential aura to the Oval Office and be able to play president without breaking everything.”

MAYBE THIS WILL FINALLY GET THE LEFT SERIOUS ABOUT FIGHTING INFLATION: Inflation threatens record pace of renewable power rollout.

PJ MEDIA VIP ROUNDUP: Don’t forget that VODKAPUNDIT promo code if you’ve been thinking of joining us.

Matt Margolis: The Trans Movement Only Survives by Bullying. “The fear of being dubbed a bigot and a transphobe compels many to perpetuate the insane notion that people can change genders. Only bullying is causing transgender ideology to be forced into the mainstream.”

AJ Kaufman: The Biden Administration Has No Interest in Combating China. “Tis administration has proved all year they’re unwilling to confront Beijing in consequential ways.”

Yours Truly: Science™ vs Science: Twitter Silences American Heart Association Warning About mRNA Vaccines. “Science™ is a species of gnostic knowledge known but to a few, usually named Anthony ‘Doctor’ Fauci, our nation’s most celebrated medical spokesmodel.”

LICENSE TO STEAL: Pueblo Police Chief: Thefts under $2,000 cannot result in jail time. “In 2021, theft and larceny in Pueblo is up 11%. Auto theft has almost doubled in the city, going up 46%.”

Blame it on the COVID.

THE CLINTON MONEY MACHINE: Ethics Experts Alarmed By 93% Decrease In Clinton Foundation Donations Since $250 Million Peak In 2009. “Money was pouring in when Hillary Clinton was a senior official and a candidate for president. The fact that foundation donors received special access to the Secretary of State isn’t surprising, nor is the fall in foundation funding after her 2016 election loss. Many people thought people were supporting the former president, but it really looks like they were cozying up to who they thought was going to be the future president — a situation that can’t be repeated.”

FINGERS CROSSED! Will a Disgruntled Chris Cuomo Take CNN Down With Him?