Author Archive: Glenn Reynolds

COMMANDER SALAMANDER: The Costs of War at Sea: Understanding Scale.

Politically and institutionally – not to mention industrially – the institutions of our nation and those of our allies are sleepwalking in to a systemic shock I am afraid they are not ready for.

Make no mistake, at some point another large war at sea will come. They always do. For every “long peace” there is a “large war.” . . . We will have to fight with what we have, and try to force victory in the face of attrition without relief.

Nobody is really prepared for how expensive a major U.S./China conflict would be. They think they are, but they’re not.

THE GLOBAL BABY BUST: Robin Hanson: Five Fertility Fails.

Related: The baby bust is worsening. “Birth rates have been slowly falling for a while. But last year’s drops were notable both for their severity and because they’re now happening sharply in countries that had largely avoided them, such as France. The United States is a striking exception. American births fell only about 2 percent in 2023, to roughly 3.6 million. The baby bust is most severe in East Asia, and China in particular.”

WHAT HATH BILL ACKMAN WROUGHT? Harvard Is Trying to Smooth Things Over With Silicon Valley: Endowment brass meets with venture capitalists to address concerns about campus turmoil. “The pressure by some of Harvard’s money managers, which hasn’t previously been reported, adds another dynamic to the tumult that has enveloped elite universities since the attacks on Israel. The uproar was led by big donors such as Apollo’s Marc Rowan and Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman, rather than by investors hired by the schools to manage their money.”

OPEN THREAD: Try to stay warm.