Author Archive: Austin Bay

SINAI’S DISPLACED COPTIC CHRISTIANS: In January and February Islamic State fighters and their allies launched attacks on the Christians living in Egypt’s Sinai.

Hundreds of Christian families escaped the city of el-Arish Feb. 24 after the Islamic State (IS) and its branch in Egypt, Wilayat Sinai, increased attacks on Copts there. It is believed to be the largest wave of collective displacement in Egypt since the June 1967 war. Coptic families have discretely been experiencing displacement since the Egyptian government declared a war on terrorism in July 2013, but Cairo and the media have taken an interest in this latest wave because it involves collective migration. No official census figures are available on the Coptic population in the Sinai.

Read the entire report.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH RESUMES: But not enough to stop budget cuts.

That means large cuts in government spending, including a defense budget that is now 25 percent smaller…That also means the replacement of worn out or obsolete Cold War era equipment will take a lot longer and upgrades to or expansion of the military will be restricted. The government has already announced sharp reductions in orders for new armored vehicles, ships and aircraft. Instead thousands of tanks and aircraft will undergo extensive (and much cheaper) upgrades.

Good news for Russia’s neighbors.

OK, I’VE FOUND YOU FANS OF AMERICAN AIR POWER SOME MORE COOL BOMBER PHOTOS: Since the Bomber Trifecta I’ve had several requests.

Agreed, the B-1 Lancer is a beautiful airplane. This B-1 is taking off from Andersen AFB, Guam. Like the Bomber Trifecta photo, it’s a USAF public relations pic, but a fine one.

However, this old photo is truly dramatic: an ocean-hugging B-52 flies by the USS Ranger.

Per the caption, the photo was not photo-shopped. “It happened in early 1989 off the coast of Mexico… It’s very, very rare for a USAF aircraft to do a fly-by below the flight deck of a carrier.”

INTERVIEW WITH SECSTATE TILLERSON: A long sit-down interview with The Independent Journal Review.

Intro:

In his first sit-down interview since becoming secretary of state, Rex Tillerson spoke with Independent Journal Review’s Erin McPike about the challenges of American diplomacy with China, the imminent threat of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and his reasoning behind his limited press access.

Sample:

EM: You told Fox yesterday that ‘nothing is off the table’ with respect to the nuclearization of the Korean peninsula. In your confirmation hearing, you kind of said that South Korea and Japan don’t need to have nuclear weapons. Has your view changed, given the urgency of the situation with North Korea, particularly because Japan could finalize development of a nuclear weapon rather quickly if they needed to?

RT: No, it has not, nor has the policy of the United States changed. Our objective is a denuclearized Korean peninsula. A denuclearized Korean peninsula negates any thought or need for Japan to have nuclear weapons. We say all options are on the table, but we cannot predict the future. So we do think it’s important that everyone in the region has a clear understanding that circumstances could evolve to the point that for mutual deterrence reasons, we might have to consider that. But as I said yesterday, there are a lot of … there’s a lot of steps and a lot of distance between now and a time that we would have to make a decision like that. Our objective is to have the regime in North Korea come to a conclusion that the reasons that they have felt they have had to develop nuclear weapons, those reasons are not well-founded. We want to change that understanding. With that, we do believe that if North Korea [were to] stand down on this nuclear program, that is their quickest means to begin to develop their economy and to become a vibrant economy for the North Korean people. If they don’t do that, they will have a very difficult time developing their economy.

Check the whole thing out.

Good to see this interview appear in something other than ‘the usual suspects.”

NORTH KOREA DENIES CYBER ATTACKS: Yeah, right.

Pyongyang’s state-controlled news agency KCNA said the United States has reached new “despicable heights,” although the suggestion North Korea may be behind bank breaches came from private U.S. firm Symantec.

Here’s a wire service summary of the Symantec report.

A North Korean hacking group known as Lazarus was likely behind a recent cyber campaign targeting organizations in 31 countries, following high-profile attacks on Bangladesh Bank, Sony and South Korea, cyber security firm Symantec Corp said on Wednesday.

Symantec said in a blog that researchers have uncovered four pieces of digital evidence suggesting the Lazarus group was behind the campaign that sought to infect victims with “loader” software used to stage attacks by installing other malicious programs.

The Symantec blog has more details.

JAMES COTTON PASSED AWAY LAST WEEK: The blues harmonica great died March 16 in Austin, Texas. Here’s Downbeat’s obituary.

UPDATE: I heard James Cotton play on three different occasions, the last one being in 1972 or 1973. Occasionally at college jam sessions I would fake a very limited, dumbed-down version of The Creeper. Here’s the real thing. Here’s his official site.

THE BBC LISTS SEVEN OF CHUCK BERRY’S GREATEST SONGS: OK, it’s the Beeb’s music reporter. But it’s a decent list. Here it is: Maybellene. Roll Over Beethoven. School Days (“American history and practical math”). Brown Eyed Handsome Man. You Never Can Tell (“They had a hi-fi phono, boy, did they let it blast, Seven hundred little records, all rock, rhythm and jazz”). Memphis, Tennessee. Johnny B. Goode.

Note: The BBC post says “School Day” not “School Days.” It’s both. In 1957 schools still taught American history and practical math. I selected the line from You Never Can Tell because it’s one I particularly like.

UPDATE: OK, seven of his best, not necessarily greatest. The article’s a fun read.

THE KIM JONG NAM ASSASSINATION INVESTIGATION: Malaysia says to expect more arrests.

Malaysian police have previously identified eight North Koreans wanted for questioning in connection with the killing of Kim Jong Nam, some of them hiding in the North Korean embassy. A Vietnamese woman and an Indonesian woman have already been charged in the case…On Thursday, police said Interpol issued a “red notice”, the closest to an international arrest warrant, for four North Koreans wanted in connection with the murder.

Stay tuned.

SWEDEN RECONSIDERS CONSCRIPTION: The background.

…the Russian threat returned in 2014 and Sweden was reminded that two decades of defense budget cuts and a lack of volunteers for military service had left Sweden unable to defend itself.

RADIO FREE EUROPE EXPLAINS TIME ZONES: Still having trouble adapting to Daylight Saving Time? The video is short, informative and witty. (“Saving” corrected!)

DATA FROM SMART DEVICES SHOW UP IN COURT:

Vast amounts of data collected from our connected devices — fitness bands, smart refrigerators, thermostats and automobiles, among others — are increasingly being used in US legal proceedings to prove or disprove claims by people involved.

TWO MORE ILLUSTRATIVE WARSHIP PHOTOS: I should have included two other photos in yesterday’s post with pictures depicting the warships mentioned in my column on the USN frigate controversy. By the way, the technical and operational comments made by Navy vets on my initial post (Wednesday) were very informative.

A photo of a Freedom-class Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) and a USN five-inch gun would have been useful to readers.

1 – A Freedom-class LCS. The LCS photo in yesterday’s post was an Independence-class trimaran vessel. Here’s that photo for immediate comparison.

Both classes have had machinery, equipment, and construction problems. These have led to fundamental changes in the LCS program and concept. My column looked at some of these issues. (These two links lead to US Naval Institute reports on LCS issues. Both strike me as succinct and accurate.)

2 – What does a five-inch gun look like? Like this: an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer fires its five-inch gun. It can fire 16 to 20 rounds a minute.

Here’s the link to the Instapundit archive page with the warship photo links. One photo shows a 76 mm gun in action.

SECRETARY OF STATE REX TILLERSON: North Korea is an “imminent threat.”

MORE:

“…the threat of North Korea is imminent. And it has reached a level that we are very concerned about the consequences of North Korea being allowed to continue on this progress it’s been making on the development of both weapons and delivery systems.”

THE TURKISH COUP PLOT THICKENS: German intelligence agency director Bruno Kahl says his agency is not convinced that “U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind last summer’s failed coup in Turkey…”

As to the source of the coup:

Kahl also said he did not think the Turkish government was behind the coup, saying: “The coup attempt was not initiated by the government. Before July 15 the government had already started a big purge so parts of the military thought they should do a coup quickly before it hit them too.”

THE GREEK DEBT CRISIS: World Politics Review argues it can still shatter the European Union, politically and economically.

NORTH KOREAN WEAPONS SMUGGLED TO AFRICA: A lesson in how to evade sanctions. North Korea smuggles weapons to African nations then takes payment in valuable minerals and gems.

In 2016 “UN investigators found evidence of North Korean weapons being used in several African nations, especially ones that themselves were subject to UN bans on receiving foreign weapons. Often this evidence was uncovered by UN peacekeepers, most of whom are assigned to trouble spots in Africa.”

Read the whole thing.

BASQUE TERRORISTS SAY THEY WILL DISARM: ETA says it will “handover” its weapons on April 8. At one time ETA demanded secession from Spain and the formation of an independent Basque state. The Spanish government says ETA must dissolve as well as disarm.

OK, PICTURES OF SHIPS: A couple of commenters thought I should have included links to photos of the various ships mentioned in my latest Creators Syndicate column, “Emerging Threats Drive the Navy’s Frigate Controversy.” The column is distributed to subscribers by the syndicate and distribution doesn’t include pictures. Editors may add them to support the column. (By the way, realcleardefense.com linked to it this week. That’s always nice.)

But I have some time this morning and photos are a good idea. The Navy needs new frigates that work. Taxpayers deserve to get their money’s worth. So here’s a quickie photo gallery:

A Coast Guard Legend-class National Security Cutter intercepts a semi-submersible carrying 7.5 tons of cocaine. (Superb photo.)

A Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) patrols in the South China Sea.

Destroyers are bigger ships. Here’s an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer underway.

Here’s a photo of a Perry-class frigate firing its 76 mm gun. As the column says, the Perry-class ships have been retired.

RELATED: Navy doesn’t want to discuss cost overruns on the USS Milwaukee LCS.

FEDERAL JUDGE IN WASHINGTON STATE DOESN’T EXTEND HIS ORIGINAL INJUNCTION AGAINST TRUMP TRAVEL BAN:

A federal judge in Washington state whose order blocked President Donald Trump’s first so-called “travel ban” last month on Thursday refused to apply that hold to a second, revised order. The second order remains blocked by a different judge’s ruling.

U.S. District Court Judge James Robart in Seattle ruled that the second order temporarily restricting entry to the United States from some predominantly Muslim nations was different enough from the initial order that his injunction shouldn’t carry over.

AL QAEDA REORGANIZES IN WEST AFRICA: A detailed analysis from the Long War Journal.

On Mar. 2, a merger of al Qaeda groups in the Sahel was announced. The “Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims” (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) brings together four existing al Qaeda organizations under one banner. Ansar Dine, Al Murabitoon and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s (AQIM) Sahara branch are all part of the new entity. The Macina Liberation Front, an arm of Ansar Dine, is as well.

The analysis includes a discussion of how AQIM established Ansar Dine as a very calculated “cut out” operation. An AQIM senior commander “did not want the jihadists’ governance efforts [in Mali] to appear foreign to the local populace.”

This StrategyPage update from November 2016 provides more historical background on AQIM/Ansar Dine.

BIPARTISAN CONGRESSIONAL ROAD TRIP, TEXAS TO DC: The snowstorm disrupted airline flights, so two Texas congressmen rented a car and drove — for 36 hours. They streamed some of their conversations.

What began as a travel headache ended in a bipartisan bromance after two Texas congressmen, one Republican and one Democrat, launched a 36-hour road trip after flights to Washington were canceled and broadcast the journey on Facebook.

The whole thing began when Reps. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, and Will Hurd, R-San Antonio, became stranded in the Lonestar State due to the mass flight cancellations up and down the East Coast due to this week’s snowstorm. Both men were in jeopardy of missing Capitol Hill votes and hatched the plan to rent a car and drive together to the Capitol.

The two men began broadcasting the trip, and their far-reaching conversations about everything from health care policy to doughnuts, on Facebook Live. They took questions from the thousands of users who peeked in on the broadcast and aired policy agreements, and disagreements.

O’Rourke and Hurd even got a phone call from House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy who promised to get them a place to park and to keep votes on legislation open as long as he could.

Sure, this is great PR for both of them. It also sounds like they made the best of a difficult situation and had some fun in the process.

COURT CASE DEMONSTRATES THE VALUE OF THE OXFORD COMMA:

The comma is an optional one that is used before an ‘and’ or ‘or’ at the end of a list. It’s surprisingly controversial online, with its uses or lack of them being vociferously debated, but a labor court case has now settled the argument…

OBAMA’S “PIVOT” TO PACIFIC SCRATCHED: There’ve been a couple of prior posts on this subject. This Defense News article adds a little more information:

The Obama administration’s Pacific rebalance effort — also known as the Pivot to the Pacific — effort is officially dead, according to a top State Department official.

Asked by reporters about the future of the rebalance, Acting Assistant Secretary of State Susan Thornton said Monday that the new administration has its own plan for the region, even if that plan has yet to take shape.

“Pivot, rebalance, etcetera — that was a word that was used to describe the Asia policy in the last administration. I think you can probably expect that this administration will have its own formulation. We haven’t really seen in detail, kind of, what that formulation will be or if there even will be a formulation,” she said.

However, Thornton — speaking on the eve of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s first visit to the Asia-Pacific region — stressed that the new administration remains committed to the region, even if the flavor of that commitment may change.