WE”RE SEEING LOTS OF “ACTIVITIES” AT NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS TEST FACILITIES:

Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates activities are taking place at a number of key facilities directly related to the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons.

It’s another reason strategic patience is over.

KONY 2017: The Facebook world didn’t catch the commander of the Lord’s Resistance Army.

THE U.S. ARMY AIR CORPS’ DIVE BOMBER: The Banshee. The Army’s WW2 version of the USN’s SBD-3 Dauntless dive bomber. (I’ll catch up on the photos I’ve missed in StrategyPage’s bomber series later this week.)

U.S. SECRETLY DEPLOYING STRATEGIC ASSETS TO KOREA TO MAXIMIZE FEAR IN THE NORTH: Anyone who is surprised didn’t read this. Strategic patience is over.

VERY MUCH RELATED: Good chance this is an action photo of one of the B1-Bs mentioned in the Daily Caller article. Note the South Korean escorts. Yes, yet another cool bomber photo, this one taken March 21, 2017. Of course the B1-B’s flight was not really a secret. The photo is confirmation that the flight occurred.

A NEW MILITARY HISTORY PHOTO SERIES: This time StrategyPage’s webmaster has collected photos of WW2 military aircraft. There are also some from the 1920s and 1930s. He’s been posting them for several days. So far the planes are all bombers. Here’s one from last week: B-26 Marauders supporting the invasion of Normandy. I passed on the suggestion made by several Instapundit readers that he cover another WW2 battle.

CHINA DEBATES NORTH KOREA: According to Japan Times “…the party-state in Beijing is completely at a loss today in coming to grips with the North Korea problem.” The Trump Administration is coming to grips with North Korea. Strategic patience is over.

AUSTRALIA WILL SOON BE WITHIN RANGE OF NORTH KOREAN NUKES: From The Australian:

In South Korea last month, US General Vincent K. Brooks, commander of UN and US forces in the country, stood in front of ­Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and ­delivered some sobering news.

The general told her North Korea, led by the maniacal Kim Jong-un, had developed its rocket technology to the point that Australia would soon be within range of a nuclear strike.

“The assessment was that North Korea … was now at a point of advanced technology when it came to ballistic missiles that were capable of carrying a single nuclear warhead, that it was an increasing security risk not only to the Korean peninsula but also to our region, including Australia,” Bishop told The Australian.

US and Australian intelligence had long warned that North Korea was getting close to being able to launch a nuclear-armed intercontinental missile capable of reaching the US or Australia, but no one had spelt out this new reality as bluntly as Brooks.

“It was the first time I had heard it in such stark terms,” ­Bishop says.

“It is deeply concerning that North Korea has been able to take the opportunity to advance its capability.”

Glory be. We are where we are. North Korea extended the range of its ballistic missiles on Obama’s watch. Now art of the deal meets art of war.

MALAYSIAN POLICE REPORTEDLY ENTER NORTH KOREAN EMBASSY: The investigation of Kim Jong Nam’s assassination continues.

The Malaysian police on Sunday entered the North Korean Embassy in Kuala Lumpur in connection with last month’s murder of Kim Jong Nam, the estranged half-brother of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, according to a Malaysian Chinese-language newspaper.

Four police officers, including the investigating officer of the murder, the Selangor state police chief and Selangor prosecution team officer, entered the embassy in the morning and were there for two and a half hours, China Press said, adding they were granted permission by the embassy to enter.

The entry indicates that a preliminary agreement may have been reached on processing the body of Kim Jong Nam, and on the recording of statements of three suspected accomplices in the murder believed to be hiding in the embassy, according to the report.

One of the three is Hyon Kwang Song, 44, the second secretary of the embassy.

Stay tuned.

HOW PAKISTAN PLANS TO FIGHT A NUCLEAR WAR: The article discusses Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and how it might be used to fight a nuclear war. The article suggests Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal exists to deter India. What if deterrence fails? The article doesn’t address how Pakistan would survive a nuclear war.

Experts believe Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile is steadily growing. In 1998, the stockpile was estimated at five to twenty-five devices, depending on how much enriched uranium each bomb required. Today Pakistan is estimated to have an arsenal of 110 to 130 nuclear bombs. In 2015 the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center estimated Pakistan’s bomb-making capability at twenty devices annually, which on top of the existing stockpile meant Pakistan could quickly become the third-largest nuclear power in the world. Other observers, however, believe Pakistan can only develop another forty to fifty warheads in the near future.

Pakistani nuclear weapons are under control of the military’s Strategic Plans Division, and are primarily stored in Punjab Province, far from the northwest frontier and the Taliban. Ten thousand Pakistani troops and intelligence personnel from the SPD guard the weapons. Pakistan claims that the weapons are only armed by the appropriate code at the last moment, preventing a “rogue nuke” scenario.

Pakistani nuclear doctrine appears to be to deter what it considers an economically, politically and militarily stronger India. The nuclear standoff is exacerbated by the traditional animosity between the two countries, the several wars the two countries have fought, and events such as the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai, which were directed by Pakistan. Unlike neighboring India and China, Pakistan does not have a “no first use” doctrine, and reserves the right to use nuclear weapons, particularly low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, to offset India’s advantage in conventional forces.

RELATED: See the January 24, 2017 and January 9, 2017 updates in this StrategyPage post.

MY LATEST NEW YORK OBSERVER COLUMN: Art of War meets art of the deal. Tillerson pulls a Trump card on North Korea. (bumped)

INDIA TEST FIRES NEW MISSILE FROM ITS AIRCRAFT CARRIER: China’s drive to build a credible aircraft carrier force gets a lot of attention — and it should. India is trying to get its only carrier to work.

India’s navy announced Friday it successfully fired its first surface-to-air missile from its aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya.

The test firing, conducted in the Arabian Sea on Wednesday, was part of the Operational Readiness Inspection program and marks a major milestone in the country’s defense capabilities. The missile was fired at a live low-flying, high-speed target, officials said.

“The target was successfully engaged and destroyed,” the navy said. “The missile marks a significant milestone in providing air interception and defence capabilities, thus enhancing operational capabilities of the navy’s aircraft carrier and the fleet.”

INS Vikramaditya is the country’s sole aircraft carrier and was retrofitted with a Barak missile system. The Kiev-class vessel was built in 1987 and served the Soviet navy and was originally named Baku. It was later renamed Admiral Gorshkov under the Russian navy. The Indian navy purchased the vessel in 2004.

The UPI report is correct. The INS Viraat (an aircraft carrier) was decommissioned on March 6. The INS Vikramaditya has had a lot of problems.

ANOTHER ESCAPE TUNNEL FOUND BENEATH A MEXICAN PRISON: Looks like it was dug to help Los Zetas cartel gunmen.

Mexican authorities said Friday they found a long escape tunnel beneath a prison in Tamaulipas that likely took many months to dig.

Prison officials in the northern Mexican state said more than two dozen inmates escaped through the underground passageway.. Twelve of the 29 escaped prisoners have been recaptured.

One of the escapees killed a person in a carjacking attempt in the state capital, Ciudad Victoria, where officials say the Zetas drug cartel operates.

MY LATEST NEW YORK OBSERVER COLUMN: Art of War meets art of the deal. Tillerson pulls a Trump card on North Korea.

METHAMPHETAMINES AND COAL MINES: Forgive the bitter visual pun, but both sources of revenue contribute to the endless combat in Myanmar (aka Burma).

Drug war in Burma– yes. They’re also fighting over control of coal mines.

It’s an old story but new blood continues to spill:

In Shan state, for example, the army and tribes are fighting over lucrative coal mining operations. In Kachin state the army violence is connected with the illegal gold mining and the tribal fear that the army cannot be trusted to observe the terms of any peace deal. Along the west coast (Arakan and Chin states) it’s about the army effort to control (tax) illegal logging by tribesmen. The tribes have been mistreated by the military for so long it is difficult to generate a lot of trust for a new peace agreement.

NORTH KOREA PREPARING FOR NEW NUCLEAR TEST: That’s the way it looks.

Art of the Deal Meets Art of War in North Korea fills in the dangerous historical details (a bump for my latest Observer column).

COUNTERING POLITICAL ISLAMISM: A “must read” assessment by Ayaan Hirsi Ali (via the Hoover Institution).

Insisting that radical Islamists have “nothing to do with Islam” has led US policy makers to commit numerous strategic errors since 9/11. One is to distinguish between a “tiny” group of extremists and an “overwhelming” majority of “moderate” Muslims. I prefer to differentiate among Medina Muslims, who embrace the militant political ideology adopted by Muhammad in Medina; Mecca Muslims, who prefer the religion originally promoted by Muhammad in Mecca; and reformers, who are open to some kind of Muslim Reformation.

These distinctions have their origins in history. The formative period of Islam can be divided roughly into two phases: the spiritual phase, associated with Mecca, and the political phase that followed Muhammad’s move to Medina.

MORE:

By not fighting a war of ideas against political Islam (or “Islamism”) as an ideology and against those who spread that ideology, we have made a grave error.

If Islamism is the ideology, then dawa encompasses all the methods by which it is spread. The term “dawa” refers to activities carried out by Islamists to win adherents and enlist them in a campaign to impose sharia law on all societies. Dawa is not the Islamic equivalent of religious proselytizing, although it is often disguised as such by blending humanitarian activities with subversive political activities.

Dawa as practiced by Islamists employs a wide range of mechanisms to advance the goal of imposing Islamic law (sharia) on society. This includes proselytization, but extends beyond that. In Western countries, dawa aims both to convert non-Muslims to political Islam and to bring about more extreme views among existing Muslims. The ultimate goal of dawa is to destroy the political institutions of a free society and replace them with strict sharia. Islamists rely on both violent and nonviolent means to achieve their objectives.

Dawa is to the Islamists of today what the “long march through the institutions” was to twentieth-century Marxists. It is subversion from within, the use of religious freedom in order to undermine that very freedom. After Islamists gain power, dawa is to them what Gleichschaltung  (synchronization) of all aspects of German state, civil, and social institutions was to the National Socialists.

Read the whole thing.

THE EUROPEAN UNION TURNS 60: Analysis from USA Today.

Just six of the EU’s current 28 members were signatories to the Treaty of Rome in 1957, the agreement that established the European Economic Community, the EU’s predecessor. This weekend’s ceremony takes place five days before British Prime Minister Theresa May invokes legislation that starts Britain’s two-year legal path to a formal exit from the bloc.

MY LATEST NEW YORK OBSERVER COLUMN: Art of War meets art of the deal. Tillerson pulls a Trump card on North Korea. (bumped)

ART OF WAR MEETS ART OF THE DEAL: Tillerson pulls a Trump card on North Korea.

THE KOREAN WAR ISN’T OVER — AND THAT’S A DANGEROUS FACT: My latest New York Observer column.

USAF PRACTICES ATTACK ON NORTH KOREA: Turn about is fair play. North Korea claimed a recent missile test was “practice” for an attack on U.S. bases in Japan.

A USAF B1-B bomber:

…reportedly left from the Andersen Air Force Base in Guam and performed training exercises with Japanese F-15J fighters before joining the South Korean drills. Japan, another regional U.S. ally, has also expressed concern over militant rhetoric from North Korea, and conducted its first-ever civilian air raid drills last week after Pyongyang launched a barrage of missiles into the sea near Japanese territory.

Guess the Bomber Trifecta photo’s become a perennial. And it should be. Though it needs a temporary caption. Let’s call it an operational caption. How about “Special Delivery For Kim Jong Un.” I like that.

UPDATE: Commenters are suggesting some cool operational captions. Here’s another caption to consider: “Trump Cards.” Since January 20 that phrase has new meaning.

NORTH KOREAN SPECIAL OPERATIONS TROOPS: Hmmm. There are indications they’re having morale problems.

OBAMA DIDN’T STOP NORTH KOREA’S NUKES: Last week SecState Tillerson called North Korea an imminent threat.

TRUMP VERSUS NORTH KOREA’S NUKES: Strategic patience is over. Pyongyang better get ready.

USING BOARD WAR GAMES FOR TRAINING: This Popular Mechanics article focuses on a CIA analyst who uses games to train. Glad he’s doing it.

Training for any job, let alone one involved in security, is crucial. The prospect of having to go through it, though, is enough to make your eyes glaze over. Which is why the CIA brought a new element to their internal training exercises: board games.

The article is good –except using games for this purpose is not new. Board games have been used like this for decades. It may not have been official policy, but I know U.S. intelligence community analysts used board games for this purpose in the 1970s and 1980s. The military used them. Firefight is an example. The game was published in 1976. StrategyPage editor Jim Dunnigan designed it for the U.S. Army. In 2001 a lieutenant-colonel in CENTCOM’s J-5 told me his section was using my Arabian Nightmare: Kuwait War game for training purposes. He said that game’s “Political” module was particularly valuable for generating challenging scenarios. (The commentary at the link refers to the “Political rules.” The Political Game could radically re-shape the military campaign. In fact, Saddam could win the Political Game.)

UPDATE: Of course war games are not new. Soldiers have run map exercises since the invention of maps. In the mid-1980s an archivist at the old U.S. Army historical center at Carlisle Barracks, PA, showed me a “war gaming kit” put together by a U.S. Army officer in the 1850s. If I recall correctly, the wooden box had a compass, a protractor, a ruler and some small pieces of colored wood to indicate units. The archivist said the officer’s notes showed he experimented with “what if” scenarios. The center had part of a map the man had used. (I didn’t see the map or the notes.) The kit and documents were kept in a store room and someone “would get to it eventually.”