NORTH KOREA PLANS MORE ICBM AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTS: The Korea Herald quotes South Korea’s defense ministry. So let’s do something about it.
Author Archive: Austin Bay
July 31, 2017
TURF WARS IN THREE MEXICAN BORDER TOWNS ARE INTENSIFYING: Reynosa, Nuevo Laredo, and Matamoros are in Mexico’s Tamaulipas state — and across the Rio Grande from Texas.
July 30, 2017
RIDING VIA RAIL, WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY: A BBC photo gallery trek on a rail line in Manitoba. Here’s the click bait: local folks want to buy the tracks. For many people the train is how they get their groceries and medical supplies. But that’s not the only complication in this tale. Muskeg. Muskeg is a complication.
THE USS ZUMWALT AS A 21ST CENTURY POCKET BATTLESHIP: The author of the article thinks the USN should strip the Zumwalt of its guns, pack it from stem to stern with anti-ship missiles and employ it as a stealthy ship-killing platform.
The conversion would start with deleting the two 155-millimeter Advanced Gun System howitzers on the bow and replacing them with a large field of Mk. 41 vertical launch systems. Each Mk. 41 can hold a single missile, which in this case will be the new Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM). Removing the guns could free up room for up to two hundred Mk. 41s, resulting in more silo-based firepower than even the Ohio-class guided-missile submarines. The combination of a stealthy ship and stealthy antiship missiles guided by artificial intelligence would make a formidable adversary. Alternately, the two hundred or so silos could be filled with Tactical Tomahawk missiles for a land-attack mission.
A ship-killing Zumwalt would by necessity operate alone, as an escort would be easy for enemy sensors to detect. Fortunately, the combination of the ship’s AN/SPY-3 Multi-Function Radar and SM-2 and ESSM missiles makes for a powerful self-defense suite. The Zumwalts’ eighty Mk. 57 silos, already installed onboard the ship, would be reserved for defensive weapons. The eighty silos could provide a layered defense with a combination of medium-range Standard SM-2 air-defense missiles and short-range Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM). If the newer SM-6 surface to air missile fits in the Mk. 57, the secondary antiship role of the SM-6 would give the Zumwalts a backup antiship weapon for use against enemy vessels that don’t rate a LRASM.
The article is worth the read.
UPDATE: Just so Insta-readers know, when it comes to the Second Amendment and USN warships, I am pro-gun.
TIT FOR TAT MISSILE TESTS: This is breaking news. The U.S. Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missilee is now 15 for 15 in intercept tests. Another test took place today. THAAD is designed to intercept intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). North Korea tested an ICBM prototype on July 4 and July 28. This latest THAAD test is billed as a response to the latest North Korean ballistic missile test. Intercepting North Korean test launches with U.S. and allied ABMs is a course of action option — in other words, near simultaneous tit for tat tests with North Korea providing the target free of charge. I like the name “Operation Return of Serve.”
MORE SPEEDBOAT BLUFF IN THE PERSIAN GULF: Ayatollah Iran’s dangerous and provocative behavior isn’t new. The Khomeini regime declared war on the U.S. in 1979. Obama’s nuclear deal isn’t going to prevent the mullahs from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
RELATED: Two of the U.S. Navy ships involved in the July 25 Persian Gulf confrontation with Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The patrol craft USS Thunderbolt and the AEGIS guided missile cruiser USS Vella Gulf. On July 27 Iran tested a ballistic missile. The Vella Gulf is a ballistic missile defense (BMD) warship. A fanatic’s boat weaving among American warships could disrupt the U.S. formation and cause a collision.
GOODBYE COLLUSION: Hello Democrat congressional espionage ring and endless corruption and who knows what else.
REBUKED IN COURT: The shrinking airline seat.
“This is the Case of the Incredible Shrinking Airline Seat,” Judge Patricia Ann Millett wrote on behalf of the three-judge panel. “As many have no doubt noticed, aircraft seats and the spacing between them have been getting smaller and smaller, while American passengers have been growing in size.”
Stay tuned.
U.S. AND ALLIES PREPARED TO USE OVERWHELMING FORCE AGAINST NORTH KOREA: “Rapid, lethal and overwhelming force” is definitely an option — number 6 in this list.
RELATED: B-1B bombers escorted on exercise over South Korea.
July 29, 2017
WHY NEWT GINGRICH THINKS BRINGING IN KELLY AS CHIEF OF STAFF IS A GREAT MOVE BY TRUMP: Read the whole thing.
THE MYTH OF ISIS’ STRATEGIC BRILLIANCE: I never thought ISIS was particularly brilliant, just extremely vicious. All the Islamic State did was take advantage of Obama, but then everyone else did as well.
EVALUATING NORTH KOREA’S LATEST MISSILE TESTS: Analysis from 38North.org.
On July 28, North Korea launched a ballistic missile that reportedly flew for 45 minutes, reaching a peak altitude of 3,000 km, and a slightly longer range than the previous test. While the type of missile tested is yet unconfirmed, these data, if accurate, are fully consistent with a Hwasong-14 tested with a larger second stage that is powered by a high-thrust engine. If flown on a flatter trajectory, this missile could reach as far as 9,000 to 10,000 km. More information, including videos and photographs, will help identify the new second stage engine, and pinpoint its performance capacity.
However, if the above assessment is correct, North Korea seems to have made a logical step forward, as it tries to perfect the technologies to build and field an operationally-viable ICBM that can threaten the mainland United States. More tests are needed to assess and validate the reliability of the Hwasong-14, so North Korea is sure to follow this launch with many more.
Not good news, is it? Step by step Pyongyang proceeds until it obtains ICBMs and nuclear weapons. That’s why Rex Tillerson and Mike Pence said strategic patience is over. The fat kid and his noxious regime must be stopped.
July 28, 2017
THE NORTH KOREAN MISSILE TESTED TODAY PROBABLY HAS ICBM RANGE:
North Korea tested a missile today that “probably” demonstrated their capability to strike America’s Pacific Coast, a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee warned.
Defense Department spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis said in a statement today that the Pentagon “tracked a single North Korea missile launch today at about 10:41 a.m. EDT.”
“We assess that this missile was an intercontinental ballistic missile, as had been expected,” Davis said. “The missile was launched from Mupyong-ni and traveled about 1,000 km before splashing down in the Sea of Japan. We are working with our interagency partners on a more detailed assessment.”
North Korea must be stopped before it has ICBMs with nuclear warheads. Here are some Trump Administration course of action options.
ANOTHER NORTH KOREAN BALLISTIC MISSILE LAUNCH: The missile splashed down in Japan’s maritime Exclusive Economic Zone. The missile may or may not be an ICBM –South Korea and the U.S. are assessing the test. The missile North Korea tested on July 4 had ICBM characteristics. Here’s the critical point: Pyongyang keeps on shooting and continues to promise nuclear war. Something has to be done before North Korea obtains an ICBM with a nuclear warhead. Here’s what Trump can do about North Korea. This column elaborates on the “missile interception option.”
WHY THE AYATOLLAHS PLAY SPEEDBOAT BLUFF IN THE PERSIAN GULF: It’s an act of war in the regime’s long war on America. And on July 25 we witnessed the latest speedboat bluff battle in that war when a speedboat manned by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel approached American vessels.
The USS Thunderbolt responded and went to General Quarters—immediate combat readiness on the warship, its crew members at battle stations with ammo on hand. The Thunderbolt was screening the AEGIS cruiser USS Vella Gulf, a USN capital warship carrying anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs) capable of intercepting North Korean and Iranian intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). With fanatics at the helm an IRGC boat could be a suicide boat bomb.
Note the Iranians continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles. Obama’s Iran deal didn’t stop that program. It really didn’t stop the ayatollahs’ quest for nukes. And it’s biggest failure is it doesn’t penalize bad behavior, like speedboat bluff to disrupt U.S. naval formations.
A BLUEPRINT FOR NEW SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA: From the Center for a New American Security.
Despite the perception that North Korea has long been the most sanctioned country on earth, the reality is that until recently, those sanctions were not very comprehensive. Though the U.N. Security Council had passed four sanctions resolutions between 2005 and 2015, none of them meaningfully tightened the economic screws on North Korea. Without this broad economic force, they lacked the leverage to compel policy change or effective nuclear diplomacy. Instead, they were narrowly targeted at specific individuals and companies involved in North Korea’s nuclear program and served as more of a messaging tool, with relatively limited financial consequences for North Korea and its regime elites.
There is room to increase the economic and political pressure on North Korea’s economy using sanctions and “military leverage”:
Aggressively doing so plus targeting the international companies, including many based in China, that still do business with North Korea could begin to curb its continued ability to generate hard currency from exports and its continued access to the international financial system. This additional pressure could limit the country’s ability to generate the funds it needs for its nuclear program. Just as important, it would restrict Kim’s ability to handle any ensuing economic instability. This would build critical leverage for the United States in future diplomatic negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear program.
The study says “North Korea’s international trading relationships constitute a target-rich environment.” For example, sanction “any bank or company involved in purchases of North Korean exports – including coal, minerals, textiles, and other products” and “craft sanctions targeting insurance companies that underwrite cargoes to and from North Korea.” The best model for this “tougher approach” with sanctions was the sanctions regiment “that the United States imposed on Iran before the JCPOA was concluded in 2015.” That’s the bad Iran deal Obama slapped together.
RELATED: Some examples of tough sanctions and military leverage.
ISRAEL EVALUATES ITS READINESS FOR WAR: Hamas and Hezbollah are the daily challenges, but Iran is the big threat. By the way, Iran still wants nukes.
The Iranian regime has not given up its strategic objective of obtaining nuclear weapons. The sunset clauses on the nuclear deal will lift key restrictions over the next eight to thirteen years. Assuming the hard-line Shiite ideological-religious camp and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) continue to control Iran’s foreign and military policies, the Islamic Republic will be able restart its nuclear program at the end of the sunset clauses (if it does not cheat and breach the agreement beforehand).
Iran could begin enriching uranium again (using improved techniques it is currently researching) to bring it to nuclear breakout, and could try to reach that point at a time of its choosing. Its missile program is already developing. This means Israel could find itself in a state-to-state conflict in the not too distant future.
Additionally, Arab Sunni states threatened by Iran have launched civil nuclear programs of their own. These could turn out to be the initial stages of military nuclear programs, designed to counter Iran’s nuclear shadow.
More evidence that Obama’s Iran deal was a very bad deal.
July 27, 2017
TRIAL DATE SET IN KIM JONG NAM ASSASSINATION: The two women accused of murdering North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un’s half brother will come to trial on October 2.
Stay tuned.
MICK JAGGER GETS POLITICAL: The tune is England Lost. It features British rapper Skepta. It’s about discontent.
JAGGER:
“So am I politically optimistic? … No.”
The USA Today webpage with the article has music videos of England Lost and Gotta Get A Grip. Both by Mick Jagger.
IRAN HAS BECOME EMBOLDENED DESPITE OBAMA’S SO-CALLED NUCLEAR AGREEMENT: That’s what President Trump said this past Tuesday in Youngstown, Ohio, and he’s right.
Iran’s violent troublemaking is both old news and breaking news.
By one count, in 1996 the regime was involved in at least 17 international conflicts, most of them in the Middle East or Central Asia, but its malign tentacles touched even South America. Today Tehran’s tentacles engage well over two dozen conflicts, and likely more since several conflicts in Africa and Asia are wars within wars within wars. It’s no matter, creating violent trouble is Tehran’s business. That’s the regime’s past and present.
Next time Obama’s rotten Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action comes up for certification –that should be in October– Washington needs to tell Tehran that the very bad deal is simply too flawed to work.
In a speech in April 2016, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis (at the time he was merely a retired general) said the U.S. should recognize Iran not as a nation-state but “a revolutionary cause devoted to mayhem…”
Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action did not slow Iran’s military build-up — so it wasn’t very comprehensive.
FOR IRAN, SPEEDBOAT BLUFF IN THE PERSIAN GULF IS ASYMMETRIC WARFARE WAGED AGAINST THE GREAT SATAN, AMERICA: The ayatollahs will continue to employ terror and crime until they obtain The Great Equalizers: nuclear weapons and ICBMs that can target Washington, Tel Aviv, Paris, etcetera.
OBAMA’S VERY BAD DEAL WITH IRAN: It didn’t stop an arms race, it ignited one.
HARRIER AT SUNSET: Yes, the AV-8B Harrier is still around. It hasn’t quite faded into the sunset. (Nice photo.)