Author Archive: Austin Bay

HAS CHINA’S RAPID RISE TOPPED OUT? Bloomberg analyzes China’s slowdown — and says the government is responsible for the looming problem.

The fall from grace of China’s Anbang Insurance Group Co. Ltd. continues to get steeper. Not long ago, the mysterious firm was chasing one foreign deal after another, becoming a symbol of China’s global economic ambitions. Now it appears the government may be pressuring Anbang to divest those prized foreign assets. If that proves to be the case, China will have given foreign businessmen yet another reason to be wary of working with Chinese companies: the uncertainty of an erratic, intrusive state meddling in private financial affairs.

But the Anbang case is also part of something bigger, and for China’s economic future, scarier. In just about every category, China’s rise into a global economic superpower has stalled. And the Chinese government sits at the heart of the problem.

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In part, China is simply running into the difficult transition every country faces when losing its low-cost advantage. Facing stiff competition from countries like India and Vietnam, where wages are lower, China is losing ground in apparel and textile exports to the United States. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy isn’t replacing these traditional exports with new, high-value ones quickly enough. For example, in 2016, China exported 708,000 passenger and commercial vehicles, a sharp deterioration from the more than 910,000 shipped abroad in 2014.

Rather than boosting China’s global expansion, government policy is holding it back. The renminbi remains a sideshow in currency markets because the state can’t stop fussing with its value. In May, the central bank actually reversed its stated policy to liberalize the renminbi’s trading and imposed more control. Investors haven’t forgotten the heavy hand Beijing employed to try to quell a stock market collapse in 2015, leaving them wary of exposing themselves to Chinese shares.

The entire commentary is well worth reading.

NORTH KOREA THREATENS MASSIVE RETALIATION OVER SANCTIONS:

The North’s warning came two days after the U.N. Security Council unanimously approved new sanctions to punish the North including a ban on coal and other exports worth over $1 billion. U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley called the U.S.-drafted resolution “the single largest economic sanctions package ever leveled against” North Korea.

In a statement carried by state media, the North Korean government said the sanctions were a “violent infringement of its sovereignty” that was caused by a “heinous U.S. plot to isolate and stifle” North Korea.

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The centerpiece of the U.N. sanctions is a ban on North Korea exports of coal, iron, lead and seafood products — and a ban on all countries importing these products, estimated to be worth over $1 billion in hard currency.

According to a Security Council diplomat, coal has been North Korea’s largest export, earning $1.2 billion last year which was then restricted by the Security Council in November to a maximum $400 million. This year, Pyongyang was estimated to earn $251 million from iron and iron ore exports, $113 million from lead and lead ore exports, and $295 million from fish and seafood exports, the diplomat said.

Stay tuned.

RELATED: Other options for stopping Pyongyang’s weapons programs.

ABSOLUTELY SUPER WEBSITE: As I understand it, the fellow who runs this website, Cem Devrim Yaylali, loves snapping photos of ships passing through the Bosphorus. The site has photos of ships — primarily warships– passing right past Istanbul. The shutterbug’s got Russian, Chinese, British, French, Turkish, American, etc. warships. Welcome to 21st century open source naval intel.

SMALL-SCALE ANTI-MADURO REBELLION CRUSHED IN VENEZUELA: That’s the Reuters report. All the facts aren’t known.

Venezuelan authorities suppressed a small rebellion at a military base near the city of Valencia on Sunday, arresting seven men who they say participated in a “terrorist attack” against the government of unpopular leftist President Nicolas Maduro.

Earlier on Sunday a video circulated on social media showing a group of men in military uniform announcing an uprising in the wake of the creation of a pro-government legislative superbody on Friday, which was widely condemned as a power grab.

Hundreds took to the streets in Valencia to support the uprising, said resident Carolina Herrera, who like other witnesses reported shots through the night.

A former National Guard captain announced the revolt.

There’s evidence that many lower ranking officers oppose Maduro. I mentioned that in a recent column on Venezuela’s slide toward civil war.

OBAMA’S WEAKNESS ENCOURAGED RUSSIAN MEDDLING:

This timidity was on display all throughout 2016, well before the President was confronted with a detailed report from the CIA containing evidence of Russian interference in our elections. In July of that year, just a little after Trump, Jr. held his meeting with the so-called Russian lobbyists in New York, an explosive video started making the rounds—footage of a Russian security guard wrestling an alleged U.S. spy to the ground right outside the U.S. embassy in Moscow, in the process fracturing the American’s shoulder. It was an act of unprecedented aggression on the part of the Russians, with at least one former U.S. intelligence official noting how such brazen behavior was unheard of even at the height of the Cold War. And it was but the most egregious manifestation of what appears to have been a concerted effort to intimidate U.S. diplomats in Russia.

Yes, the wages of Obama’s weakness. Good to see The American Interest is woke.

IRANIAN AL QUDS LEADER BOASTS THAT HIS FORCES HAVE KILLED MANY AMERICANS:

“This, of course, is not only a confession but also outright bragging about how the Quds Force murdered Americans in Iraq,” said Michael Rubin, a Middle East analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. “It was the Quds Force, after all, that smuggled in explosively formed, armor-penetrating projectiles into Iraq for insurgents to incorporate in improved explosive devices.

(Iranian) Gen. Ghaani repeated Tehran propaganda that America carried out the 9/11 attacks in New York and the Pentagon, not al Qaeda.

“America, under the pretext of Sept. 11 attacks, which it carried out itself, invaded Afghanistan and mobilized young Muslims and deployed them to Afghanistan so that they can later attack Iran,” he said.

Obama’s “peace deal” with the ayatollah regime is a very very bad deal.

THE NEXT AIR FORCE ONE:

Under pressure from President Donald Trump to cut the cost of the next Air Force Ones, the U.S. Air Force is finalizing a deal with Boeing to purchase two undelivered 747s in storage in the Mojave desert.

The 747s were “abandoned by a bankrupt Russian airline.”

Let’s see how the benighted minds at CNN interpret this story.

MEASURING DEEP ROCK STRESS: This has nothing to do with fretting about music, but it could help improve earthquake prediction. The work on the “anelastic strain recovery method” for analyzing rock stress is being done at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“Rock stress — the amount of pressure experienced by underground layers of rock — can only be measured indirectly because you can’t see the forces that cause it,” Hiroki Sone, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering and geological engineering at Madison, said in a news release. “But instruments for estimating rock stress are difficult to use at great depths, where the temperature and pressure increase tremendously.”

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The latest proof-of-concept tests show the anelastic strain recovery method can be used to measure rock stress at extreme depths — as deep as 4.3 miles.

The UPI article is short but informative. It links to this in-depth (so to speak) scientific report.

HOLDING LATE STAGE SOCIALISM ACCOUNTABLE: Trump Administration holds Venezuelan dictator Maduro personally responsible for the safety of jailed opposition political leaders.

President Trump delivered the message himself:

“The United States condemns the actions of the Maduro dictatorship,” Trump said in a statement late Tuesday. “Mr. Lopez and Mr. Ledzema are political prisoners being held illegally by the regime… we reiterate our call for the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners.”

RELATED:Venezuela’s slide toward civil war.

CHINESE MISSILE TESTS: According to Fox News the Chinese missiles targeted “mock United States missile batteries and jets.” The tests took place on Saturday, July 29.

U.S. spy agencies detected the Chinese military launching a series of 20 missiles at mock targets designed to look like American THAAD missile batteries and advanced U.S. Air Force F-22 stealth fighter jets.

China has long protested the deployment of U.S. THAAD anti-ballistic missiles to South Korea, and doubled down on its condemnation after the government in Seoul said they want four more American launchers over the weekend, following North Korea’s Friday test of a second KN-20 intercontinental ballistic missile…

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Days before the China missile tests on Saturday, U.S. military satellites also detected a failed attempt of China’s anti-ballistic missile system — Beijing’s version of the U.S. THAAD system.

America’s THAAD is an impressive weapon. It’s now 15 for 15 in operational tests against IRBM-type targets. China opposes the deployment of U.S. THAADs in South Korea. However, North Korea’s malign behavior has spurred South Korea. South Korea is considering acquiring its own THAAD battery.

BONE AND KOREAN EAGLES: A B-1B Lancer bomber and two South Korean F-15 Eagles fly over South Korea.

NORTH KOREA’S ICBM: 38North.org evaluates the July 28 test launch.

This should give you confidence:

While Pyongyang may have an ICBM, the threat is currently limited to unsophisticated warheads against targets on the US west coast. North Korea will likely have to turn to an upgraded design to achieve their goal of a robust capability to retaliate against targets on the east coast, including Washington, for any attack on North Korea.

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The missile was reported to have reached an altitude of over 3,700 km, remaining airborne for 47 minutes. That’s a substantially higher level of performance than what the missile displayed on its first launch. This means, if the missile had been launched on a maximum-range trajectory, it could have reached Chicago or possibly even New York City.

Have you hugged a U.S. missile defender today? Remember, the Democrats opposed Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, the program that really put the U.S. on the road to developing anti-missile systems. As for the fat kid, here are some options for dealing with his Pyongyang regime.

THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Time for Treasury to sanction Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s rogue IT personnel.

Overnight, it was reported that Awan “frantically” raced to liquidate his U.S. assets and to send the proceeds to Pakistan, where his wife is believed to have also fled. Both he and his wife – who, unlike Awan, is not in captivity and is free to use a computer, presumably – were liquidating properties even on the day of his arrest.

The liquidation involved, but is not limited to, the transfer of nearly $2 million in real estate assets within the family. In at least one of those transactions, a U.S. bank was funding nearly the entire sale.

When it comes to financial matters, there is one man who can stop the transfer of illicit funds to foreign countries: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

So do it, Mr. Secretary.

RELATED: The unanswered questions swirling around DWS and her IT mess.

NONE DARE CALL IT TREASON: Though perhaps it is, as well as corruption. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz faces more questions about her IT techs.

Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is coming under mounting pressure to explain why she kept an IT aide on the payroll for months after a criminal investigation was revealed, facing calls from Republicans to testify as well as a newly filed ethics complaint.

Wasserman Schultz, the Florida congresswoman who led the Democratic National Committee until last year, terminated Imran Awan’s “part-time” employment last week, when he was arrested at Dulles International Airport trying to fly to Pakistan. He was charged with a bank fraud count.

But he and other former IT aides for House Democrats have been on investigators’ radar screen for months over concerns about possible double-billing, alleged equipment theft and access to sensitive computer systems. Most lawmakers fired Awan in March, but Schultz kept him on, though he was barred from the House IT network.

She should face a special prosecutor.

IRAN-NORTH KOREA CONNECTION?:

A top North Korean politician recently left Pyongyang for a 10-day trip to Iran, a country that may still be cooperating militarily with the Kim Jong Un regime.

Workers’ Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun reported Tuesday chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Assembly of North Korea Kim Yong Nam left Pyongyang on Monday to attend the inauguration ceremony for President Hassan Rouhani.

The North Korean newspaper stated the inauguration ceremony is scheduled for Aug. 5, but Kurdish media network Rudaw reported the inauguration of Rouhani is to take place in two stages on Aug. 4 and 6.

While in Iran, Kim Yong Nam will discuss Iran will “issues of joint concern” with the ayatollah regime.

Issues like these, I suppose.

UNDER THE RADAR BUT ON THE ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE RADAR:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in ordered discussions to be held with the United States on deploying additional THAAD anti-missile defense units following North Korea’s test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, his office said on Saturday.

Recall Moon ordered a “re-evaluation” of the THAAD deployment. It was a sop to South Korean lefties. But he’s responding to reality.

VERY RELATED TO REALITY: South Korea may buy its own THAADs.

SHOT AND CHASER: Option 4.

CUBS GIVE STEVE BARTMAN A 2016 WORLD SERIES RING: Great story. In case you forgot, during the 2003 National League Championship Series, Bartman was the Cubs fan who reached out of the stands and interfered with Moises Alou’s attempt to catch a ball. And once again the Cubs failed to win. He became the Cub Fan Condemned To Permanent Hell.