“TRUST THE EXPERTS,” THEY SAID:

Philip Tetlock's results in the early 2000s were the most important in the history of political science: on average, subject-matter experts didn't beat random guessing—and did worse than simple heuristics.
If this isn't part of your worldview, you're ngmi pic.twitter.com/KGCA7PVriO

— Werner Zagrebbi🇦🇿 (@zagrebbi) April 16, 2026