REALITY CHECK:
Debunking the “We Evacuated Everything” Narrative:
As expected, following the strikes, the Iranian propaganda machine has kicked into gear, claiming – rather predictably – that the targeted nuclear facilities, such as Fordow and Natanz, had been emptied in advance. Let’s address…
— Aimen Dean (@AimenDean) June 22, 2025
The whole text:
1. Real-Time Monitoring by the IAEA:
Both Fordow and Natanz are under partial surveillance by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While Iran has restricted access in recent years, many of the monitoring systems – especially CCTV cameras – were active in the past and still provided some insight until at least early 2023. In several cases, the IAEA retained knowledge of infrastructure layouts and could remotely detect large-scale activity, especially if dismantling or evacuation were attempted.
2. The Myth of Rapid Evacuation:
This isn’t a warehouse full of sacks of potatoes. We’re talking about highly specialized, sensitive equipment, thousands of IR-1 and advanced IR-2m and IR-6 centrifuges. For context:
•Natanz had an estimated 15,000–20,000 centrifuges at peak capacity. Even after the JCPOA, thousands remained in use or storage.
•Fordow, while smaller, housed over 1,000 advanced centrifuges, some enriching uranium up to 60% purity in recent years.
These are not items that can be boxed up and trucked out overnight. Dismantling a single cascade (a chain of 164 centrifuges) safely requires days of work, if not longer. Multiply that by hundreds of cascades, and you quickly realize this isn’t a quick getaway.
Additionally, centrifuges are connected to high-pressure uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) lines. Improper disassembly can lead to contamination, equipment damage, or worse, leaks of radioactive gas. Such evacuations would require weeks of preparation under controlled conditions.
3. Eyes in the Sky and on the Ground:
Let’s not forget that the U.S. and Israel have had persistent, layered surveillance over these sites for years, satellites, high-altitude drones, SIGINT, HUMINT. Every inch of ground around Fordow and Natanz has been watched for telltale signs of activity. The idea that Iran stealthily evacuated multiple facilities without being detected is simply ludicrous.
4. Propaganda to Salvage Prestige:
This entire narrative is damage control, plain and simple. The regime knows its core scientific and strategic assets were hit. They can’t admit it, so they spin: “We were too smart for them. Nothing of value was lost.” But it’s hollow bravado, masking what is in reality a colossal strategic failure – yet another one – in a long line of catastrophic blunders by a leadership that has brought nothing but ruin to a once-proud civilization.