WHO KNOWS? How Credible Is the 2025Q1 GDP Decline? “It is hard to believe that the U.S. economy can be slowing when aggregate wage income and inflation-adjusted consumer spending are still rising reasonably briskly. Yet the official data suggest that the combination of defense cuts, the unwinding of election-related spending, and a modest decline in construction activity all contributed to a notable slowdown in 2025Q1.”

I mean, I don’t know but “official data” haven’t been super-reliable.